US Forecast Somewhat Drier 8-15 Day Period; Climate Forecast Cooler into late June: The details of this weekend’s system have been fine-tuned, and the outlook through the middle of next week has trended wetter in the Central and Eastern Midwest. A much cooler pattern is still scheduled to begin by early next week, and looks to stay intact through the next 3-4 weeks. The GFS model’s week 1 (top) and week 2 precip forecast is at left.
Updated radar maps include scattered rainfall across much of the Central US currently. Moderate rainfall will then linger through the weekend and lite follow up showers are indicated Mon/Tues. NOAA’s QPF now features cumulative rainfall of 2-3” across TX, OK, MO, IL, IN, OH and KY. Pockets of the S Midwest will see amounts upwards of 3.5-4.0”. Much cooler air sinks into the Plains and Midwest by next Wednesday, and this will establish a drier but rather cold pattern thereafter. Warmth and sunshine is needed by summer row crops.
A deep low pressure Trough will circle much of Southern and Eastern Canada in the 6-12 day period, and it’s this trough that will pump a steady flow of cooler air into the E Plains and Midwest through the period. Seasonal temp readings will likely appear across the W Plains but elsewhere temps will be some 5-15 degrees below normal. The EU & GFS are in agreement that lows in the upper 40s & 50s will hang on through the end of May across the Great Lakes. Fortunately, additional soaking rain is not indicated through the opening days of June, and any precip that does fall will be isolated to the far Southern Plains – though this will keep HRW harvesting slowed.
The CFS model’s 16-30 temp outlook is attached, and below normal temps look to be featured into the final days of spring. This will not materially affect yield potential, but does place more importance on the temp pattern in late July & early August for the accumulation of heat units.