US Forecast Drier Outside of Lakes Region; Still Cold: The major forecasting models continue to trend drier in the 6-15 day period, and additional soaking rain is unlikely through the first week of June. However, regional precip will linger in areas surrounding the Great Lakes, which along will below normal temps through the period will limit crop growth and keep condition ratings well below previous years in IL, IN, OH and MI. The GFS model’s 6-10 day outlook is at left.
Steady shower activity finally ends across the E Corn Belt by late Friday. Additional precip in IN, OH, MI and PA in the next 48 hours is estimated in a range of .50-1.50”. Totals across the E Corn Belt since May 1 have been recorded upwards of 7-8”, or some 150-230% of normal. Drier, sunnier weather is needed.
Bouts of sunshine will appear in much of the Central US next week, but as the jet stream maintains a more southerly alignment, cooler than normal temps will linger into the first part of June. A mass of cooler Canadian air will continue anchored aloft the Great Lakes and Southeastern Canada. Low temps next week in the E Midwest will fall into the low 50s, with highs not likely to exceed the upper 60s/low 70s. The forecast still implies sub-normal GDD accumulation, and we expect crops in IN and OH (which were not reported this week) will be well below recent years, perhaps upwards of 20-30% below.
16-30 day guidance, though too far out to have much confidence in the details, still includes normal/above normal precip and coolish pattern in the N Plains and E Midwest into June 15th, and so the risk is that the pattern recently established in the Lakes Region won’t change much in the weeks ahead. Next Monday night’s forecast will be important.