Central US Drier Nearby, Some Rain Next Week; Late June Also Trending Drier: The overall US pattern is little changed, while the details of the near term outlook have trended drier/warmer than Monday’s release. A sharp decline in soil moisture lies in the offing, and the issue is still whether extended range outlooks are correct in calling for precip June 16-20? The models are in good agreement on a shift to some rains in the 11-15 day period, but confidence so far out is lacking.
In the meantime, warm/dry conditions will prevail across a vast majority of the US Corn Belt over the next 10 days. A high pressure Ridge moves from the W Plains into the E Midwest through early next week. This will keep meaningful rains isolated to Southern & Eastern Canada, and high temps in the 80s and 90s will be common. Maximum highs in the mid-90s are still anticipated across KS, NE, SD and NE early next week. The GFS’s implied 7-day change in soil moisture is offered and soil moisture will be in fast retreat.
A low pressure frontal system is projected to disrupt this hot/dry pattern next Wed/Thursday, and a more zonally flowing jet stream will allow normal/ near normal precip to impact the US in the 10-15 day period. Totals then are estimated in a range of .50-2.00”, which will favor IA, MN, WI, IL and IN, and if materialized will be rather timely. Note that little/no moisture relief is offered to the Central Plains in the next two weeks, and we fear drought already established across the N Plains will spread southward into late month.
Confidence in forecast beyond the next 8-10 days is low, but we do mention that long range climate outlooks are trending drier across the heart of the Corn Belt. The CFS model’s latest 16-30 day outlook is at left, and it seemingly keeps Gulf moisture confined to the Delta, Southeast and mid-South. Also recall that dryness – which is much more impactful than excessive moisture – has not been an issue in the last two years, and the pattern ahead needs very close monitoring.