Models Trend Warmer, Drier Across Plains: The GFS at midday pushed the mean position of high pressure Ridge directly into the Corn Belt beginning mid-next week, which if realized will promote a rather hot/dry pattern during the bulk of corn pollination. The GFS may be incorrect with the exact position of the Ridge, but the theme is still that a NW upper air flow will dominate North America into the latter part of July. As such, ARC fully expands drought to expand across the Central Plains and Western Corn Belt.
This NW air flow will be fully established in the days ahead. Lite to moderate rain will flow across the northern edge of the Ridge into early next week, with totals pegged at .25-1.00” across E IA, WI, IL, IN, OH and MI. The remainder of the Central US will be left completely dry, and high temp readings will continue in 90s and low 100s across the Plains. Note that highs today reached 98-101 in KS, CO, NE and SD, and similar temps are expected indefinitely.
There’s no real change in this pattern forecast through July 22nd. An expanded Ridge of high pressure will stay anchored aloft the Plains, and will at times reach into the Western Midwest. The GFS (top) and EU models’ 10-day precip forecast is at left, and the two are in general agreement that soil moisture will be somewhat stable in the Eastern Midwest, but there’s no sign of relief for the west. The most significant change in moisture reserves in the next 10 days will occur across; OK, E KS, NE, MO and W IA, and our work suggests that the Western Corn Belt will reach 50% silking on/around July 19th.
Assuming the forecast is correct, July 1-20 rainfall will range between 30-60% of normal across the western two-thirds of the Corn Belt, and this compares to 60-300% of normal rainfall during the same period in 2016. Until signs of a pattern shift appear in the extended period, we advise against any new sales or hedges. Crop conditions are expected to fall substantially on declining soil moisture.