Stagnant Hot/Dry Pattern Scheduled through July 25th: The primary theme of today’s model runs is that of an amplified high pressure Ridge that will shift eastward into the heart of the Corn Belt early/mid-next week. This will produce heat/dryness to expand into the Midwest. Heat will be common nearby across the Plains and far W Midwest, and only pockets of the Corn Belt will benefit from meaningful rainfall over the next 72 hours. Overall, the outlook has gotten warmer & drier and there’s no sign of major pattern change into late July. The drought in the N Plains will shift south & east.
Moderate rain will move across the northern edge of this Ridge into Wed/Thursday providing rains of .50-1.50” to regions surrounding the Great Lakes. Precip will be otherwise absent and maximum temps will again reach into the low 100s across the Western Plains this weekend.
Current soil moisture anomalies are offered and the loss of moisture in the W Corn Belt will allow heat to expand here in the next 10 days.
Model agreement in the 6-15 day period is not perfect, but there’s a general consensus that a major pattern change is unlikely until August. Rather, ARC expects high pressure Ridging of varying intensity to continue anchored aloft the Plains/Midwest, and the latest run of the EU ensemble model – which has been the most accurate in the extended period – pushes the mean position of the Ridge into KS, NE, MO and W IL next week. As such, moisture will be continuously forced north and east of the major crop production areas. Abnormally warm air will continue to flow across a bulk of the Central US. Corn, soybean and Canadian wheat yield potential will continue to erode until there are signs of cool/wetter weather. ARC fears such a change won’t be established until the early part of August. Drought will be expanding in the next two weeks as crop ratings slide.