US Forecast Not as Hot; Precip Still Below Normal: There are signs of a frontal system impacting ND and MN late next week, but otherwise the 10-day pattern is little changed. The North American pattern will continue to be dominated by a transitory Ridge of high pressure, which in the near term will sustain above normal temps and below normal precip, particularly across the Central Plains. Current drought, and how it compares to last year, is at left. Conditions were raised a full class across the Dakotas & IA, and are likely to get worse before any potential relief occurs.
The mean position of Ridging currently rests across the southern US, and in the next few days will reach into the heart of the Corn Belt. By early next week the Ridge amplifies and will be anchored aloft KS, MO, IA and IL, allowing high temps in the mid-90s to progress north and eastwards. Meaningful precip in the next 7 days will be limited to the Delta/Southeast, where totals are pegged at .50-1.50”.
ARC views the near term outlook as taking away from yield potential, rather than adding to it, but as the market is forward looking the potential for improved weather is center stage. The latest run of the EU model includes cooler air moving into the Dakotas and Northern Midwest beyond July 22nd, and in the wake of this frontal system moderate rainfall is possible across the region late in the 6-10 day period. The EU’s 6-10 day outlook is attached, and key moving forward is whether extended range models trend cooler and weather in the days ahead.
Seasonal weather will persist east of the MS River, but even updated forecasts imply July precip at just 20-50% of normal in KS, NE, SD, ND and parts of W IA. Note that precip in this region last year was recorded at 60-170% of normal. It’s our view that national corn & soy yields are a long ways from being determined.