GFS Model Much Wetter; EU Model Little Changed: Model agreement remains poor beyond the next few days, and through the EU model has trended slightly wetter next week it still keeps meaningful precip isolated to the far Northern Corn Belt, as evidenced in the 10-day outlook below. AgResource will keep a very close eye on the trend in model releases in the next few days, but our bet is that July will end with expanding drought, rather than shrinking drought.
In the near term, potentially very heavy rain will ride along the northern edge of high pressure aloft, and totals upwards of 3-4” are projected through Fri/Sat across far E SD, N IA, MN and WI. The remainder of the Central US will be dry, and high temps in the 90s will be common across the Central US through the remainder of the week.
The issue thereafter is the mean position of the jet stream as August approaches. The GFS includes an abrupt shift to a (favorable) NW upper air flow, which if realized will allow ample moisture and cooler temps to flow across a bulk of the Corn Belt. The EU, however, keeps high pressure Ridging rather expansive, and so restricts meaningful precip to the Great Lakes Region in the 11-15 day period. Both models have very different implications for price, and our bias (until proven otherwise) lies with the EU model, which still has the best track record in the extended period.
NOAA’s latest guess on the July 26-Aug 1 pattern is at left, and we maintain that a major pattern change will be difficult to sustain in the next 2-3 weeks, barring Gulf tropical storms. Note that rainfall of 6-12” is needed to ease drought in the Dakotas; 3-9” is needed in NE, IA and southern IL. And it’s the lack of soil moisture that will continue to fuel heat out West.