New GFS Model Already in Better Agreement with EU; Crop Relief Minimal Next 10 Days: A newly updated GFS has its first run at midday, and though the accuracy of the updates will take time to measure, the EU and GFS models are already in much better agreement on the 10-day pattern. Both feature regional improvements in moisture (centered on the Eastern Corn Belt), but neither include an outright pattern change. ARC maintains that drought will continue to expand slightly into the opening week of August. 30-day % of normal rainfall is attached. IA & Southern IL are ground zero for additional problems.
Radar maps show heavy rainfall working across the far eastern part of the Dakotas and MN. This system does not look to drop into IA, where rain will be needed in the next 10 days to obtain trend corn yields. Follow up showers will linger across the Dakotas, MN, WI and N IL into the weekend. The remainder of the Central US will be dry, and high temps in the 90s will be expanding eastward in the next 2-3 days.
AgResource does point out that fairly important difference still exist between the major forecast models – namely rainfall accumulation in IA, IL and MO through the next 10 days. The newly updated GFS (top) is much wetter in IA through the period, with totals pegged upwards of 3-4”, which at the least will prevent further erosion in soil moisture. The EU (bottom), however, includes rainfall across the IA/MN border in the next 48 hours, but very little thereafter. This will be critical to price determination in the days ahead.
Our thesis that high pressure Riding of varying intensity will continue across the Plains and far Western Midwest, which will keep the jet stream north and east of current drought areas. Adequate moisture will fall across the Eastern Corn Belt, but crop stress will be mounting elsewhere. Note that NOAA’s outlook is still warm and dry in the 6-10 day period.