Central Midwest Stays Dry; Temps Warm in Late August: The US forecast is wetter, overall, beyond the next 7-8 days, but limited rain looks to fall across IA, WI, IL and IN through the last week of the month. Meaningful precip is still projected to skirt the primary Corn Belt through the 2 week
period. Coming rainfall will boost soy potential across the Plains, but the widespread event needed is not indicated in the near/medium term. The models are also in agreement on a relative warmer temp profile beginning late next week. Excessive readings are not expected – it’s too late in the season – but highs will again reach into the upper 80s and low 90s across KS, NE, SD and IA Aug 19-25.
A mostly dry weekend lies ahead, followed by a series of rain events across the Central Plains. Cumulative Mon-Thurs is estimated at .50-2.00” across NE, KS, OK, TX and much of the Delta/Southeast – which will continue to slow corn harvest there. Very little rain is offered to the Midwest into next Friday.
Slightly better rain chances develop in IA, IL and IN the following weekend, as the jet stream moves briefly southward. Coverage doesn’t look to be very robust, but there’s a chance portions of Central IA, WI and IL see precip of .25-1.00” August 19-21. However, soon after this rain a fairly intense high pressure Ridge moves into the E Plains and Midwest, pushing the jet stream again into SE Canada. This will allow temps to warm to levels 4-12 degrees above normal across a bulk of the Central US, and bouts of heat will continue to favor areas stricken by moderate to severe drought.
Next up will be early fall’s climate pattern, and whether there’s any risk of frost/freeze in the Dakotas and Upper Midwest, where soy development remains well behind last year. The CFS model’s Sep temp outlook is at left, and though it’s too early to place much confidence in, Sep temps will be a focal point moving forward.