Irma Shifted Westward; Still No Rain Offered to Eastern Midwest: Hurricane Irma in the next few days will travel through the entirety of Florida and then turn inland into the Southeast. The cone of probability does include parts of IL & IN, but neither the GFS nor EU models project any meaningful rainfall north of KY. Irma will struggle as reaches the Smokies, and dissipate entirely soon thereafter.
And otherwise the outlook is unchanged into Sep 18th. The EU and GFS models generally agree that scattered showers will impact the Dakotas and MN late next week, but little/no rain is projected elsewhere across the Corn Belt. The midday GFS trended abruptly wetter in the Plains and W Midwest beyond Sep 20th, but the EU ensemble did not back this up, thereby reducing confidence in its outlook. Fortunately, a more lasting period of warmth will be established by early/mid-next week, and no hard frost/freeze is indicated into late Sep.
Argentina Too Wet; Brazil Too Dry: Brazil’s planting season will technically begin on Sep 15th, with South American corn/soy planting to begin in earnest in early October. Weather is by no means determining production potential yet, but ARC does mention that weather has been somewhat abnormal so far in late summer.
South America’s 7-day precip forecast is at left, and too much rain in Argentina has been a theme for several weeks. 30-day rainfall in Buenos Aires & Cordoba, both major producing states, rests at 200-350% of normal. Additional rainfall worth 2-4” will fall across much of Argentina in the next 10-12 days, and this pattern has already caused difficulties for wheat fertilizer application and development. One year ago some 20% of Argentina’s corn crop was seeded by the end of September, but progress is likely to reach only 5-10% complete this year. Brazilian soil moisture has been fully depleted, and until seasonal rains arrive very little field work will be complete.