GFS Stays Wet 8-15 Day Period; No Frost in Sight: The remnants of Irma will meander across the Southeast over the next 48 hours, but only trace amounts are likely to reach into S IL, IN and OH. Complete dryness persists elsewhere across the Central US through the week ahead, though the extended forecast maintains better rain chances, and a noticeably warmer temp profile lies in the offing. The GFS’s week 1 (top) and week 2 precip outlooks are at left.
Heavy rainfall worth upwards of 3-5” will impact AL, GS, SC, TN and KY into Wed. Dry and warming weather is projected elsewhere as the mean position of the jet stream stays north of the US Ag Belt in the near term.
ARC does expect a pattern change beginning next week, and potentially heavy rain will fall across the entirety of the Plains and much of the Western Midwest Sep 20-25. The EU and GFS models are in decent agreement on this change, and so confidence in its arrival is increasing.
Totals of 1-3” are forecast across the TX & OK Panhandles, as well as KS, E NE, IA, MN and WI. Should the forecast verify, significant boosts in soil moisture will develop across a majority of the winter wheat belt just ahead of planting. Otherwise, coming rainfall is likely too late to have a material impact on soy yields – as 15-45% of beans are dropping leaves across the Dakotas and Upper Midwest. Fortunately, climate models continue to offer normal/above normal temps into the first part of October, and sub-freezing temps in the weeks ahead will be limited to higher elevations out West. The graphic at left displays minimum temps projected into Sep 25th, and overall Central US temps look to exist 1-5 degrees above normal over the next 10 days.
Even longer term, La Nina continues to develop, and our initial work suggests the Dec-Feb period could be rather cold across the Plains and W Midwest.