Wet Pattern Continues in West; Dryness Persists in East: A steady flow of moisture is projected through the next 10-12 days across the Plains & Western Midwest as a broad Trough/Ridge pattern is established. Little rain and ongoing warmth is forecast across the Southeast and E Midwest, which will accelerate crop maturity and harvesting there. The US forecast is viewed as mostly benign, though a close eye will be kept on continued activity in the Atlantic.
Near daily showers will be featured across the C Plains, IA & MN beginning late this week and lasting through Sep 29th. Yet more potentially heavy rainfall is offered to TX, OK, KS, NE and IA in the 8-14 day period, and accumulation upwards of 2-5” will favor TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, MN and parts of W IA over the next 10 days. Temps stay at/above average, and still no major frost is indicated, and sustained sub-freezing temps will be confined to C Canada.
Hurricane Maria is projected to only skirt the Carolinas next week, but tropical depression Lee follows close behind.
South America Lacks Pattern Change in Next Two Weeks: The EU & GFS models are not in perfect agreement, but ongoing rain is likely in Buenos Aires, while the arrival of Brazil’s wet season looks to be delayed another few weeks. September is not often a wet in C & N Brazil, but this year looks to be especially dry. Assuming the 2-week forecast is accurate, average precip in Mato Grosso will reach only .75”, vs. 2.30” on average and 1.65” last year.
The issue is that there’s not enough time in which to seed, grow and harvest soybeans before the optimal safrinha corn planting window closes in late February. Producers in Central Brazil have yet to start planting beans.
A strong high pressure aloft Brazil will keep hot/dry weather there intact into Sep 28th. This upper air pattern will also continue to funnel moderate to at times heavy rainfall into Central Argentina. Two rain events of note are offered forecast through the period. The EU model includes additional rainfall in Argentina worth 2-3” in Buenos Aires & Cordoba. A reversal in S America’s pattern is now desired with rain across Brazil & dry weather for Argentina.