Brazil Monsoon Turns Weaker: The GFS and Canadian models overnight trended much drier across Central and Northern Brazil beyond the next 8-9 days. This is still a bit too far out to place much confidence in, but for now it appears abnormal dryness will remain featured in Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais. Soaking rain will impact the whole of Brazil in the meantime, but recall total rainfall accumulation since early August is well below average there, and even short term dryness in late Nov could be an issue. This, along with regional dryness in Argentina, raises the burden of Dec-Jan rainfall in South America. The GFS’s 11-15 day precip forecast is attached.
Lite but daily showers impact the whole of Brazil into the middle of next week. Totals are pegged in a range of 2-4”, favoring Mato Grosso & Goias. This will keep nearby crop concerns limited. Thereafter, high pressure Ridging returns to S Brazil, keeping precip south and west and major producing regions.
It’s been an odd start to South America’s growing season.
US Forecast Unchanged; Limited Harvest Disruptions Expected: The major forecasting models remain in good agreement, and all include near normal temps and a lack of heavy rain/snow into November 20th. NOAA’s 7-day outlook is below, and a similar pattern is forecast in the 8-15 day period.
Polar air will stay confined to Central & Northern Canada through the period, and only a few lite frontal systems are indicated across the heart of the US Ag Belt. Very lite precip falls across the E Midwest on the weekend, followed by similarly lite precip (mostly rain) across the Great Lakes Region Nov 15-16. Cumulative precip through the next 10 days will not exceed .25-.50”. Temps will stay chilly across the far North, where snow cover remains intact, but elsewhere readings will be at to slightly above normal. Note that the frost/freeze line will stay north of IA/IL. Extreme cold is not expected to return through the balance of November.