Brazil Wetter in Extended Period; Limited Rain across Argentina for next 2 weeks: This afternoon’s model releases feature a more expansive pattern of rainfall in Central Brazil in the 11-15 day period (see graphic), and if realized normal/above normal precip is indicated there into the latter part of November. Argentina will see little/no rain in the next two weeks, and longer term climate guidance is trending much drier in S Brazil during Dec-Jan.
We’ve mentioned that, more than recent years, S American weather needs close watching amid the establishment of La Nina, but the two-week forecast is favorable – even in Argentina, where dryness is needed to accelerate spring planting.
No lasting high pressure Ridging is indicated across Brazil through Nov 24th, and so temps will stay near normal and lite/moderate showers will be a near daily feature. The lack of rain in Argentina is a short term positive for producers, but more regular precip will be needed in December as just 40-70% of normal rain will have fallen in Central Argentina during the first three weeks of November.
US Forecast Colder This Weekend; Still Dry: A deep low pressure Trough will pass across the far northern edge of the Great Lakes in the next 2-3 days. This will act to force arctic air into much of the Plains & Midwest Fri-Sat, and overnight lows this weekend will be frigid. Minimum lows on Friday are displayed with readings in the single digits possible across; ND, MN and WI. Otherwise, the pattern is little changed and harvest disruptions through late month are absent.
A more seasonal alignment of the jet stream develops early next week. Temps thereafter will be within a few degrees of normal, and the frost/freeze line will be pushed northward to the US/Canadian border.
Lite rains will continue to favor the Southern & Eastern Midwest, but even there 10-day totals are not forecast to exceed .25-.50”. Normal/above normal temps and ongoing dryness are indicated in this evening’s 16-30 day outlooks. The US corn harvest should be nearing completion.