S American Weather Largely Favorable; Better Rain Needed in Argentina by December: The GFS’s projected soil moisture change makes clear that needed rainfall will continue to impact Central Brazil, and that needed dryness will be established elsewhere. No threatening heat is indicated, and vegetation health will be improving in South America.
Beyond the next week 6-7 days, rainfall in Brazil expands to include areas farther south such as Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, and so some 80-85% of Brazilian soybeans will be adequately watered by late November. However, only spotty rain is offered to key Argentine growing areas over the next two weeks. This, too, is needed in Buenos Aires & La Pampa, but Cordoba (which accounts for 40% of corn/soy production) has been much drier than normal in October and normal/above normal precip is demanded there by early December. This needs watching as La Nina develops. La Nina does not appear to be strong but should it have an influence on Argentina or Southern Brazil, it would be dryness in December/January.
Central US Cold Recedes Beyond Weekend: A deep low pressure Trough will skirt the upper edge of the Great Lakes in the next 48 hours, keeping US temps some 10-20 degrees below average. Temp readings this AM were in the single digits across ND, MN and WI, and another cold morning is expected Saturday. Thereafter, a more normal upper air pattern resumes, and evidence is mounting that temps over the next 30 days will be warmer than normal.
The CFS model’s 16-30 day temp anomaly forecast is at left, and the EU and GFS operational models agree that additional polar air will stay confined to Central & Northern Canada into late month. Lite rain/snow affects the E Midwest Sun/Mon. Another round of lite/moderate showers will work across much of the Midwest Nov 17-19, but heavy totals are not indicated and dryness persists elsewhere.
Better moisture will be needed across the HRW belt longer term, but the US outlook this evening is non-threatening.