Near Term South American Forecast Unchanged; Climate Outlook Reflects La Nina: There’s again no change to South America’s two-week forecast. Heavy rains will be a near daily feature in Central and Northern Brazil through the period, while rainfall in Argentina will be limited to lite/scattered amounts in parts of northern Cordoba & Santa Fe next week – which will cover just 15-20% of Argentina’s corn/soy belt. Brazilian soil moisture and vegetation health will continue to improve, while noticeable draws in soil moisture persist in Argentina.
In the last 48 hours a host of climate outlooks have been updated, and a common theme of all of them is the arrival of La Nina. La Nina won’t likely last longer than 3-4 months, but almost the entirety of South America’s growing season will occur under La Nina conditions. IRI’s latest outlook indicates rising odds of drier than normal weather in Dec-Feb across Argentina and Southern Brazil. Major crop areas are highlighted.
La Nina-Based Dryness Forecast in Southern US: The nearby Central US forecast is again little changed and the EU, GFS and Canadian models remain in good agreement.
Rain/snow and cooler than normal temps in the next 10 days will favor the eastern Midwest. Totals in excess of .50” will stay isolated to IL, IN, OH, MI, KY and PA. Near complete dryness persists elsewhere, and it remains that this pattern likely holds into the opening week of December. As expected, abnormal dryness expanded slightly in TX, OK and AR, and will expand further in the next 30 days.
Longer term, NOAA’s latest winter climate outlook (at left) accounts for the arrival of La Nina. Typical of La Nina winters, warmth and dryness will favor the Southern US, while extreme cold is likely in Canada & the far Upper Midwest. NOAA’s associated drought outlook calls for drought development in the Delta/Southeast. Drought in the Northern Plains will be ongoing into late Feb.