Models Keep Northern Brazilian Dryness Intact into Jan 27: The South American forecast is again little changed and still mixed. On the margin, roughly half of Argentina’s corn belt will see normal/above normal rainfall in the next two weeks. Buenos Aires & Cordoba look to stay dry, however. A period of 10 days or so of very little rain is offered to Central and Northern Brazil, which in the very short term is fine (producers there bemoan a lack of plant growth), but the duration of dryness will be a key issue in the weeks ahead. Cumulative precip in Mato Grosso (30% of bean production) since August is at left. More than last year, periods of dryness need monitoring.
The change ahead features a strong high pressure Ridge aloft E Brazil beginning early next week. This evening’s model runs keep this Ridge intact well into the 11-15 day period, and this will be a focal point of the market – how this Ridge ebbs and flows as pod fill approaches. Climate models still include below normal precip across northern third of Brazil in February.
US Forecast Stays Too Dry In Plains: The updated US drought monitor is attached, and of note is the establishment of extreme drought in parts of TX, OK and AR. This is still not deemed a long term issue, but without above normal rain/snow by mid-February, that view likely changes. The two-week forecast is little changed from previous days and stays dry.
Temps in the upper 40s and 50s have arrived to the Midwest & Delta/Southeast, and will hang on for another 24 hours. Cooler artic air returns to the Central US thereafter into Tues/Wed. Abnormal warmth follows this, and overall the temp outlook for the remainder of winter is wildly variable. Heavy precip will work across the Midwest and mid-South this weekend, and again in the 11-15 day period, but nothing indicated farther west. There are hints of better chances in the last week of January, but this is much too far out to place much confidence in. La Nina is expected to stick around till early summer, vs. earlier expectations of a rather short-lived event.