Brazil Wetter in 8-15 Day Period; Confirmation Needed: The major forecasting models are in general agreement that normal rain resumes in Central & Northern Brazil beginning late next week. Noticeable declines in soil moisture are projected in the meantime, and it’s important that next week’s rain is pulled into the near term outlook in the days ahead. Argentina stays dry and rather hot over the next 10 days. The GFS’s projected 7-day change in soil moisture is at left.
A high pressure Ridge aloft the whole of Central Brazil will maintains its influence over the climate there through the weekend. A lack of moisture and temp readings in the 90s will be widespread in Brazil. A more normal upper air flow is indicated beginning next Fri/Sat, and the return of rain will be particularly needed in E/NE Brazil, where 30-day precip rests at just 10-60% of normal.
Heavy rain will occur at times in Northern Argentina, but the bulk of the Corn Belt will be dry through late month. Argentine crop estimates are in retreat.
US Pattern Stagnant through Early Feb: Another day has passed without any meaningful pattern change indicated across the Central US. Meaningful precip will continue to favor the Eastern Ag Belt, while little or no moisture is forecast elsewhere. Latest ENSO forecasts are below, and a host of models are in general agreement that a moderate La Nina persists into Apr/May. Thereafter, there’s far less agreement, but until La Nina fades ARC expects the Southern and Western Plains to stay dry.
Two systems of note will work across the Eastern half of the US over the next 10-12 days. The first is scheduled for early next week. Moisture accumulation then is estimated at .25-.75”, favoring IA, WI, L, IN and MI. A second event occurs Jan 27-28, which will again favor the Central & E Midwest. Trace amounts are at times possible in KS & NE, but drought will continue to expand/intensify there.