Brazil Wetter in 10-15 Day Period; Confirmation Needed in Future Forecasts: Dryness has been spreading across N Brazil following 5 weeks of below normal rainfall. The attached chart reflects topsoil moisture across S American ag areas and the hodgepodge of soil moisture conditions that exist. As we stated, the 2017/18 South American growing season has been far from perfect.
The forecast models are in agreement that below normal rainfall will persist across the northern half of Brazil and much of Argentina for another 7-9 days. Better rains are offered after Jan 27th which could ease soil moisture shortages in Mato Grosso and Goias, with dryness to persist across Bahia.
Argentine dryness looks to expand and deepen in the next 2 weeks with just a few lite to moderate showers. The forecast is not completely dry, but rainfall totals will not offset warm temps and evaporation rates. Argy crop conditions will edge lower into February
US Pattern Stagnant through Early Feb: Another day has passed without a meaningful pattern change for the Central US. The weekly US Drought Monitor reflects a deepening area of dryness amid the ongoing lack of precipitation.
Meaningful precip will continue to favor the Eastern Ag Belt, while little or no moisture is forecast elsewhere. A second January thaw is underway and warm readings are projected into February. However, there are strong hints of another arctic episode that could develop in early February. The volatility of Central US temperatures is likely to continue with sizeable swings above and below the seasonal averages.
NASA announced today that 2017 was the 2nd warmest year on record, surpassed only by 2016. Amid the exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean, we expect that the warm of 2017 will persist into 2018 with above normal summer temperatures likely. How this impacts yield will be determined by the rainfall pattern.
This is why watching soil moisture in late winter will be important.