Argentine Rainfall Spottier Than Originally Forecast: The EU & GFS models have pushed meaningful rainfall this weekend farther east than what was originally forecast, thus leaving much of Cordoba, La Pampa and Buenos Aires dry into March 20th. Rain will no doubt be welcomed in Santa Fe & Entre Rios, which combine for roughly 25% of Argi corn/soy production. But it’s likely too little too late, as notice in the graphic below that steep moisture deficits will persist. The growing season in Argentina end in late Mar/early Apr.
ARC also mention that another 4-5 days of complete dryness and summer-like temps lie in the offing in Argentina. Vegetation maps this week are expected to show further deterioration. A drier pattern is forecast across much of Central Brazil into early next week, allowing bean harvest to accelerate noticeably across Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias & Minas Gerais. Other than monitoring soil moisture in Central Brazil during April & May, market focus is shifting quickly to Northern Hemisphere weather patterns.
Wetter Pattern Possible in Plains Late March; Near Term Still Dry: A relatively more expansive pattern of rainfall is hinted at beginning in late March/early April, but in the meantime extreme/exceptional drought will be expanding across the HRW Belt. Notice in NOAA’s 7-day forecast that the HRW belt is outlined by complete dryness. Fieldwork will also remain slow across the Delta and mid-South amid a series of moderate rain chances forecast there over the next two weeks.
A series of frontal passes will impact all but the Southern Plains into the final days of March. These events do look to benefit E TX, E OK and E KS, and any rain there at all will be welcomed. The upper air flow looks to be more conducive to a westward expansion in meaningful rainfall, but a pattern shift needs to appear in the 10-day outlook before any confidence is placed in it. Potentially heavy rainfall returns to the Delta/Southeast March 20-26.
La Nina is quickly fading.