Brazilian Forecast Trends Drier; Heat Develops Next 10 Days: The GFS has reduced its projected rainfall accumulation in Central Brazil into early December. Recall the GFS has been the better performer in South America over the last 30 days, and so this ongoing trend of precip reduction is worrisome. Meaningful South American precip in the…
Rain Falls Across Mato Grosso Overnight; Arid Pattern Resumes in Next Two Weeks: Better rainfall impacted 30% of Southern Mato Grosso overnight. Totals were recorded in a range of 1-3.00 while 70% of the area received .2-1.00”. The overall South American climate into early December will remain drier than normal, with considerable declines in soil…
South American Forecast Wetter in S Brazil; Abnormal Dryness Persists Across Argentina & North Central Brazil: The forecast into December is consistent with prior forecasts. A wetter pattern will at least briefly unfold across the southern third of Brazil Nov 26-30th. Precip is desperately needed there. Otherwise, a pattern of well below normal rainfall will…
South American Soil Moisture Loss Accelerates; Tropical Latitudes Heat Up: A pattern of dryness and warming temps will resume across all but NE Brazil into the end of November. High temps in both Argentina/Brazil will rise into the low/mid-90s. The GFS model’s implied 7-day change in soil moisture is attached. The EU/GFS models diverge on…
Weekend Rainfall Benefits Argentina, Portions of Brazil; Long-Term Dryness Worrisome: Weekend precip accumulation of 1-2” was recorded across much of Central Argentina, Paraguay and Goias & Minas Gerais in Brazil. This moisture will be welcomed. However, accumulation across Mato Grosso – Brazil’s largest soy producing states – was limited to just .30-.50”. Dryness in Mato…
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