Needed Drier Trend Due in W Europe; Soil Moisture Loss in Black Sea Raises Need for May Precip: The EU/Black Sea forecast is broadly consistent with prior runs, though a pattern of warmth/dryness in E Europe, Ukraine and Russia has been extended into April 20th. There are hints of spotty shower activity in center-north Ukraine,…
Brazilian Rain Expands into Driest Areas of Mato Grosso do Sul in 6-10 Day Period; Hints of Monsoon Exit Beyond April 13: Heavy showers will persist for another 10 days, with needed rainfall of 1-2” to reach into the driest areas of center-west Brazil in the 6-10 day period. The attached graphic displays the GFS…
Black Sea Dryness Extended into April 18th: The EU/Black Sea forecast keeps intact a pattern of heavy rainfall in Ireland, the UK and France and warmth/dryness in E Europe and the Black Sea into mid-month. Early April weather correlates poorly with Black Sea wheat yields, but dryness will be accompanied by abnormal warmth – temps…
Monsoon to Perform Normally in Mato Grosso into mid-April; Drought Worsens in South Central Brazil: The forecasting models are in agreement on continued stagnant pattern of rainfall in Brazil. Normal/above normal rainfall in Mato Grosso and key safrinha corn areas farther north has been extended into April 10-12. A pattern of below normal rain will…
It has been exceptionally wet across Western Europe over the past 60 days with many locales receiving 150-450% of normal rainfall. In particular, Spain has received 4-14.00” of rain since February 1st which is producing flooding. Winter wheat and barley crops are suffering from the excessive rainfall with producers unable to get on their fields…
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