The NOPA crush data for April was disappointing. NOPA reported an April soybean crush of 160 Mil Bu, 9 Mil Bu under expectations, and 12 Mil Bu less than a year ago. Crush rates fell in every NOPA reporting region. Compared to a year ago, the largest decline of 3.4 Mil Bu was realized in…
The Chicago Federal Reserve’s quarterly Ag Letter released just yesterday showed the general optimism across the industry. The reports from late 2020 reflected a gasp of relief and the first report for 2021 reflected heightened optimism. The push to multi-year highs in row crop prices allowed farmers to pay down a tremendous amount of debt.…
The USDA was expected to continue adjusting Brazilian corn production downwards into August. In fact, the USDA’s downward adjustment of 7 MMTs is sizable for the May WASDE! A Brazilian corn crop of 102 MMTs is much too high, but WASDE/CONAB will march their crop estimate lower as yield data becomes available. Moisture deficits across…
Old crop major exporter corn stocks/use was lowered to 7.4%, vs. 7.9% previously. Notice this this rivals the levels of 2011-2012 and validates current spot futures and cash prices. New crop exporter production, assuming normal weather and sizable seeding expansion in Brazil, is pegged at a record 665 million tons, up 31 on last year.…
The USDA drew a line in the sand several WASDE reports back. They lowered their estimate for old crop soybean stocks to 120 million bushels and have refused to take the stocks number any lower. This appears to be their estimate for “pipeline” stocks. The message is clear. The USDA (at least through April) does…
