Amid rising new crop prices, US farmers are now fine-tuning their planting intentions for the year ahead. Crop insurance base prices will be set in February, while producers in the Delta will head to the field in March. The table on the previous page reflects the USDA’s ERS division’s best estimate for national corn and…
World wheat futures have resumed adding demand-based premium following last week’s selloff. Russia made its wheat/grain export tax scheme official. Most important is that any wheat leaving the country beyond March 15th faces an additional €50/MT ($1.65/Bu) levy. Given spot interior prices, this will work to shift global import demand away from Russia to North…
Hay production in 2018 was the 2nd lowest on record and just above the record low scored in the 2012 drought year. Heavy rains in 2019, along with a record large amount of prevent plant crop insurance claims, allowed production to recover. But with a better planting season in 2020, total hay acreage declined slightly,…
Brazilian crop estimates have been in a wide range over the last 8 months. Ahead of planting, private estimates called for crop sizes as large as 135-139 MMTs. However, dry conditions delayed planting dates by 30-45 days in many areas, while limited post-planting rainfall killed or stressed young plants. Yield estimates have been declining in…
The wheat market’s chore over the next 30 days is adjust global trade flows as Russian export availability is in retreat beginning in February. On the margin, this will keep breaks in wheat prices brief and shallow. It also suggests that the US will garner additional market share during the remainder of the 2020/21 crop…
