The primary issue major grain and oilseed market face is determining whether China’s recent buying spree reflects the beginning of structural change in Chinese supply & demand. ARC argues that China could potentially import 15-20 MMTS of corn per year and 95-100 MMTs of soy from all sources. This demand will contribute to global export…
The Chinese demand-fueled rally is ongoing, as the market assumes that state-owned firms will continue to buy US soybeans. The peak US harvest is 15-20 days away. Macro markets have lent additional support as index funds continues to pile into new positions. How is high – both in term of price and Chinese demand –…
2020/21 soybean export sales have soared in recent weeks. June US sales totaled 153 Mil Bu and were more than double last year but were still 64% less than the record that was set in 2013. Export commitments reported today totaled 1,188 Mil Bu versus 411 Mil Bu last year. It’s the largest export commitment…
The US corn market rallied quickly from August lows amid the US loss of supply. The rally has been extended – counter-seasonally – amid larger than expected Chinese demand. The world corn market is digesting the chance that large Chinese imports in 2020/21 and 2021/22 – which will raise the burden on South American weather.…
Looking back at the long-term history of NASS’s October soybean yield estimates, there has been a modest bias for the October yield to be unchanged or higher. In 23 years, NASS raised the yield by an average of 0.9 BPA, and in 3 years, the yield was unchanged, for a combined total of 58%. In…
