Looking back at the long-term history of NASS’s October soybean yield estimates, there has been a modest bias for the October yield to be unchanged or higher. In 23 years, NASS raised the yield by an average of 0.9 BPA, and in 3 years, the yield was unchanged, for a combined total of 58%. In…
Acreage enrollment soared in the FSA’s Sep report. This confirms that shocking low numbers in August were due to Covid-based reporting delays and that NASS’s June acreage numbers are valid. Like recent years, final US seeded area will be altered by 100-500,000 acres, but larger revisions are unlikely. The attached table shows FSA acreage enrollment…
Price support has been raised amid larger than expected Chinese purchases and the loss of 1.1 Bil Bu of US production – relative to USDA’s May report. Yet, rallies will struggle as US corn end stocks are forecast at a 33 year high of 2,500-2,800 Mil Bu. Notice also that non-US production was lifted 2…
CBOT soybean oil futures have marked a steady rally after forging a low in late April. Spot futures last week briefly traded over $.34/Lb to mark the highest price since January. Like the late 2019 rally, the current move has been driven by surge in Malaysian palm oil futures. The soy/palm spread peaked at 4.5…
Chinese Customs reported an August soybean import rate of 9.6 MMTs, in line with expectations based on major exporters shipments. The figure lifts cumulative imports for the year to 89 MMTs, nearly 15 MMTs more than a year ago and on track to reach the USDA’s 98 MMTs annual forecast. The USDA has been steadily…
