The July WASDE report featured a number of minor changes to the 2021 pork outlook, with a slight increase in production (from June) that was largely offset by an increase in net pork exports. The 1st quarter pork production forecast was fractionally increased to 7,110 Mil Lbs. But if confirmed, production will be 4% less…
Since March, the USDA has lowered US ethanol’s corn demand draw by 675 Mil Bu. ARC’s work suggests the US is close, but another 25-40 Mil Bu cut is expected by the final. Using weekly EIA data, ARC pegs corn used for ethanol production in June at 375 Mil Bu, July at 401 Mil and…
The USDA in its July WASDE lowered Russian wheat production 1 MMT to 76.5 MMTs. ARC looks for another cut in August amid poor early winter wheat yields and as abnormal heat will be sustained into late July across Russia’s spring wheat belt. ARC forecasts final Russian 2020 wheat production at 74.6 MMTs, and so…
Vegetation Indexes across Ukraine has improved dramatically over the last 30 days. The graphic below shows vegetation health compared to average as of July 10th. Just 30 days ago vegetation across the whole of Ukraine was well below average, but timely rains and a noticeable lack of sustained excessive heat have boosted ratings. Ukrainian corn…
WASDE is likely high with its 2019/20 feed/residual estimate of 5,700 Mil Bu. The negative residual in soybeans suggests that NASS under counted last year’s US soybean crop by at least 100 Mil Bu. ARC suspects the same likely occurred in corn with another 100 Mil Bu cut in the residual to add another 100…
