Using NASS seedings and yield & abandonment by state, ARC’s preliminary US winter wheat production forecast is 1,263 Mil Bu, up 92 Mil Bu from last year. Trend yield and abandonment are assumed except for in areas across the far Western Plains, where severe to extreme drought is firmly in place. Indeed, a Plains drought…
CBOT corn’s rally has been abrupt, but it makes perfect sense relative to supply and demand. Corn balance sheet tightening is not limited to the US. The world’s exportable supply of corn and minor feed grains has plunged relative to initial expectations. And further reductions are likely as South American crop losses are documented and…
ARC sees no evidence that US corn export demand is being slowed by higher prices and maintains a 20/21 US corn export forecast of 2,750 Mil Bu. Note that USDA, as expected, has not yet begun lowering Argentine production in earnest. US Gulf corn remains by far the world’s cheapest feedgrain for delivery into early…
Widespread – and needed – rainfall of .90-2.50” impacted a bulk of Argentina’ corn & soy belt in the last 72 hours. This moisture will act to stabilize vegetation health but will only marginally improved yield prospects. Near complete dryness returns to Central Argentina through the remainder of January. Assuming the two-week forecast verifies, Oct-Jan…
The January International Trade Report showed that US beef exporters shipped out 277 Mil Lbs of beef in November, a record amount of beef for the month and the largest one-month beef export total since August 2018. Note that despite sharp declines in exports in May and June, the cumulative US export rate is the…
