Brazil’s exportable corn surplus in 2020 will be determined by safrinha corn yields and thus soil moisture in March-May. However, ARC’s work does suggest that first-crop corn yields will be at or above trend. Brazil’s first corn crop accounts for 26% of total Brazilian corn production. The attached graphic shows the correlation between Dec rainfall…
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) recently released their new commodity weightings for next year. As one can see from the chart on this page it hasn’t been a banner half decade for commodity bulls; especially if one considers the cost of rolls. Nonetheless with Bloomberg estimating last year that $83.59 Bil was following their commodity…
CBOT wheat prices remain elevated as the US domestic SRW market stays tight into 2020 without perfect Midwest weather next year. Additionally, the world wheat markets have been unwilling to break since late summer despite a substantial drop in corn values. ARC’s research suggests the world wheat market is tighter than it seems. World wheat…
The correlation between El Nino and above-trend Argentine crop yields is documented, with El Nino summers nearly guarantee above-trend yields! Seasonal climate forecasts this year suggest that Equatorial Pacific temps won’t quite be warm enough to meet the standard of an official El Nino – but will be warmer than normal into early 2020. ARC’s…
2019/20 soybean export commitments in last week’s export sales report were 12 Mil Bu (1%) larger than a year ago. China has been a regular buyer of US soybeans since September via politics. Export commitments of 7.9 MMTs are up significantly from a year ago when commitments were below 1 MMTs. US export commitments to…
