US corn and soy balance sheets have tightened on lost supply since late summer. This has also impacted major exporter row crop balance sheets. Yet, rallies above/near the cost of production have been labored. ARC has highlighted since May that the market has been comprised almost equally of supply-driven bulls and demand-driven bears. ARC’s thesis…
The October NOPA crush report showed that NOPA members processed 153 Mil Bu of soybeans during the month of September. The figure fell well short of expectations for a 162 Mil Bu crush total and was 8 Mil Bu under last year. Based on the NOPA figure, ARC expects that NASS will report a total…
Preliminary Chinese trade data for September showed that Chinese importers (Gov’t and Private) imported a total of 8.2 MMTs of soybeans. The September figure was record large and lifted 4th quarter soybean imports to 26.3 MMTs, a 5% increase over last year and the 2nd largest 4th quarter import rate on record. Despite the strong…
Equatorial Pacific Ocean temps have been warming in recent weeks. the graphic below shows the abrupt change in Pacific temps since September, with El Nino thresholds (+0.5 degrees C above normal) being neared. The graphic also shows a host of model projections for Pacific Ocean temps into spring 2020. The models are in general agreement…
The effect on the world balance sheet of changing US yield and end stocks estimates is seen in the attached graphic. Following tight US corn stocks estimates early in the summer, a relative loosening of the US balance thereafter and now a drop in final 2018 end stocks – major exporter corn stocks/use is unchanged…
