ARC’s updated US corn balance sheet is attached. ARC maintains a final US corn yield forecast of 172 BPA, with now total supplies now projected 192 Mil Bu below the USDA’s forecast in mid-September. Note that export and ethanol disappearance has been lowered to account for weak disappearance and as consumption rates are unlikely to…
The September Hogs and Pigs report is viewed as supportive of CME hog futures relative to expectations. CME futures are expected to recover as inventories of all classes of hogs were below trade expectations on a further decline in the quarterly pig crop. In June, producers told the UDSA that they intended to farrow 31,000…
The September Quarterly Grain Stocks report holds significance for the corn and soybean markets as it provides the official ending stock calculations for the previous year’s crops and offers insight into the potential for the current year’s total supply calculation. NASS also uses the data to revise the previous year’s crop size. The report produced…
Drought across portions of the US Southern and Central Plains has become historic. Correlation between autumn weather and winter wheat yield are rather loose, but the shear intensity of dryness in TX, OK, KS and NE must be watched. The attached graphic shows PHDI – a measure of drought in KS – as of the…
The USDA updated its annual food inflation forecasts last week, and once again, the USDA raised the estimates for annual food inflation. So far this year, the USDA’s forecasts have been chasing the actual food inflation rate, rather than leading. The first estimate for 2022 food inflation was released in July 2021 and called for…
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