India will not participate actively in the world wheat trade in 2023/24, which markets a sizable and important change from recent years. Food supplies are just too sensitive an issue there politically, and there’s been no indication yet in cash markets that supply & demand is adequately balanced. Spot cash milling wheat values in India…
Assuming trend yields, ARC projects Russian wheat production in 2023 at 86 MMTs vs. USDA’s estimated 92 in 2022. EU wheat production is projected at 138 MMTs vs. 134 in 2022. Combined EU and Russian wheat supplies in 2023 will be down just 3 MMTS year-over-year and at 259 MMTs will be the second largest…
The April NOPA crush report was bullish for CBOT soybeans, with the March crush rate reported at 185.8 Mil Bu. This was 2.4 Mil Bu above expectations, a record large soybean crush rate for the month, and the 2nd largest ever monthly NOPA crush ever reported. The largest NOPA crush on record was reported in…
Historic Plains drought is most directly/immediately impacting US HRW production, and as ARC has detailed recently time is running short to salvage potential. Already drought indicators suggest yield loss of 15-20% in key areas of TX, OK, KS and CO. There’s also talk of abandonment reach upward of 205 in KS, which compares to 4-5%…
The USDA in its April report tightened the exporter corn balance sheet very slightly, but ARC’s work increasingly suggests that final exporter corn stocks/use this year will rival the record low posted in 2020/21. Coming adjustments will be partially a function of larger US export demand and smaller US imports, but the core of ARC’s…
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