ARC, along with the rest of the trade, continues to trim EU corn yield potential as heat & dryness linger across Western Europe, and as subsoil moisture has been exhausted entirely in all regions but the alps. Conditions in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and Romania are most important as these five countries combine to produce…
Brazilian soybean exports to China peaked in March, which was 1-2 months earlier than normal. Typically, the Brazilian export rate marks a seasonal top in either March or April. But amid a short Brazilian crop and historic prices, an early seasonal high was reached, and exports have since declined. What is noticeable in the chart…
ARC cannot underestimate the importance of Ukrainian corn exports over the next 2-3 months. Friday’s signing of the export corridor deal followed by the shelling of the port of Odessa on Saturday leaves incredible uncertainty in the marketplace with respect to global grains flows, as well as Ukrainian major crop seeding in 2023/24. The lack…
The July Cattle on Feed report is viewed as neutral relative to expectations. The June placement rate was slightly larger than estimates, but the July 1st feedlot inventory was right expectations of 100% of last year. The report is not expected to have much of an impact on CME futures next week. However, the on-feed…
The August USDA crop reports take on greater significance as the job of forecasting crop yields, and production is handed off from WASDE analysts to NASS statisticians. The national yield in the May-July WASDE reports are based on modeling based on historical yields, planting dates, and climate variables. The NASS estimates in August are based…
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