AgResource projects March 1 US wheat stocks at 1,021 Mil Bu, down 290 Mil from last year and the lowest since 2007/08. There’s been no evidence of any material slowing of domestic use but there’s little doubt export potential has been impacting by lofty prices – and large US Gulf premiums to all competing markets.…
AgResource estimates March 1st soybean stocks at 1,950 Mil Bu, 389 Mil Bu more than a year ago, the first year-over-year stocks increase since 2018/19. While US soybean stocks will be up from last year, the stocks figure is tilted towards the lower end of the range of the previous five years. Diminished soybean use…
The March 31st USDA report will reveal additional tightening of physical US corn supply and demand. The trade has already been reluctant to add to existing positions due to unmanageable geopolitical risks. A lack of activity/volume will be ongoing until NASS’s data has come and gone. Price action of all ag markets on March 31st…
War in Ukraine has not only completely disrupted global grain flows but also the pricing of commodities. The USDA’s balance sheet are no longer the benchmark for supply and demand and in fact world balance sheets are and will stay rather misleading. ARC analysis and price models for the foreseeable future will be based on…
The USDA has made record large cuts to South American production estimates in the last three WASDE reports. Yet, CONAB and other private estimates (including AgResource Brazil) argue that the USDA has more work to do. Understandably, the USDA has deployed its slow but methodical approach to forecasting foreign crop production. AgResource estimates the 2022…
