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Cattle to Rally Further on Brazil; Expansive US Rain Lies Ahead

Mar 23, 7:30 am | AM Weather

AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures marked another day of strong gains, and a firm outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Cattle futures opened out of range on Wednesday and never looked back, with most contracts quickly climbing to limit gains, but all ended just under the early morning highs.   Feeder futures gained against fats, with  all contracts past March closing up $3+ and also marking new contract highs. March finished $2 higher for the day and $4 over the cash index, which was up $.07 at $130.02.   Initial cash sales for the week got underway at the Fed Cattle Exchange auction, where 2,195 head traded out of the 3,928 that were offered. Sales prices ranged…

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Cattle to Extend Rally; US Forecast Slightly Drier into April

Mar 22, 7:29 am | AM Weather

AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures marked strong gains on Tuesday, and a firm outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Early selling found strong demand that supported a rally in cattle into late in the day, that left April just short of the January rally high, while June cattle marked the best close in over a year. Cash markets were untraded through Tuesday, while beef cutouts were $1.17 higher in choice and $1.44 for select.   Initial cash sales for this week will start later this morning at the Fed Cattle Exchange, which is showing 3,928 head up for sale. Since the start of the year, the Exchange has captured about 8% of the 5 area negotiated trade,…

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Cattle Rally Continues; US Plains Still Wet Late March

Mar 21, 7:33 am | AM Weather

AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures finished mixed on Monday and a steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. April cattle were steady at the open on Monday, but quickly found resistance above unchanged and spent most of the day trading lower. The rest of the market was firm on bear spreading and ideas that deferred cattle contracts are still priced to cheap and all months except April closed higher.   Feeder futures once again marked the best gains for the day, with the unrelenting rally in April continuing. On a spot basis March closed out a chart gap that was left with the January expiration, while the April contract marked it’s best close since last August. The…

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Cattle Called Firm Again; US Forecast Slightly Wetter

Mar 20, 7:24 am | AM Weather

AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: A firm outlook is offered for early week trade in the cattle markets following last week’s strong technical close. Sales in the cash market last week were $2-3 higher in the South at $127-128.50, and top sales in the North were $4-5 higher at $130-131. Beef values were $3.60 higher in choice and $3.49 in select, and estimated beef packer margins are record high for mid-March at $116/head.   A number of fundamentally related reports will be released this week, which could produce profit taking on strong early week rallies. The March Cold Storage report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Livestock Slaughter report on Thursday, and the Cattle on Feed report is on…

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Cattle Rally Continues; US Weather Mixed in Plains

Mar 17, 7:27 am | AM Weather

AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures marked strong gains through Thursday, and a firm outlook is offered for the CME heading into the weekend. April cattle gapped higher at the open on Thursday, and technical trading supported the market into late in the day. Following active sales in the cash market on Wednesday, only light trades were reported for Thursday which were at similar prices. Beef cutout prices were higher with the choice value up $1.04 at $222.36 and the select value gained $.73 to $213.87    Weekly beef export shipments were near average last week, but cumulative shipments for the year are 16% over last year and the largest since 2011. Weekly sales were above average and outstanding sales…

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Cattle Trend Continues Higher; US Forecast Wetter 11-15 Day Period

Mar 16, 7:23 am | AM Weather

AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed higher on Wednesday and a firm outlook is offered for early trade this morning. After a firm start, an early break in April cattle uncovered good demand and confirmation of higher cash trade supported the CME into late in the day. With the CME still well under the physical market, and charts all pointing up, steady/higher trade is expected into the weekend. Feeders marked gains similar to the fat market. April put in the best close since mid January and looks to be confirming last week’s technical breakout. A test of the January highs, just under $131 is expected either late this week or early next.    Negotiated cattle sales started at the…

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Cattle Likely Weakens; US, S Am Forecasts Mostly Favorable

Mar 15, 7:41 am | AM Weather

AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed lower on Tuesday and a steady/weaker outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Early short covering quickly ran into technical type selling, that kept April cattle under pressure into the close. April cattle fell back to the 50 day moving average on Tuesday, and traders this morning will watch how the market trades near $116. Feeder futures followed the fat market lower, but to a lesser extent, and April was still above last week’s high at Tuesday’s close. The cash feeder index jumped $.33 and was at $127.42, or near even with March and April futures contracts.   Negotiated cattle markets went untraded through Tuesday. No packer bids have been quoted for…

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Cattle Firm Again; Brazil Stays Wet Through March 29th

Mar 14, 7:38 am | AM Weather

AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: It was a very uneventful day of trading in the cattle markets on Monday, and a steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Live contracts were higher at the open, but found limited follow through and spent the day trading back and forth, at higher levels. But at the close, most cattle contacts were nearer to the low of the day, and any early weakness this morning could quickly produce technical liquidation.   Negotiated cattle markets were quiet through Monday, and initial sales look to hold off until Wednesday at the earliest. Feedyards will be looking capture part of the recent rally in beef prices, while packers will be protective of margins. The chart…

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Cattle Called Firm; South American Weather Threat Absent

Mar 13, 7:24 am | AM Weather

AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: A steady outlook is offered for early trade in the cattle markets, following last week’s late recovery and strong technical close. Cash trade last week was steady in the South and near $125, and sales in the North were higher at $126-127, all of which was well over CME cattle futures. The beef market put in another week of strong gains last week, lifting estimated beef packer margins to $99/head, or the highest level of the year, and the strongest margin for early March in several decades.   The choice cutout value finished the week $11.76 higher at $219.83, or the best level since last June, and the select value was $6.94 higher at $210.99. Choice ribs…

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Cattle Called Steady; South American Weather OK

Mar 10, 7:12 am | AM Weather

** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed higher on Thursday and a steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. April cattle were sharply higher at the open, but quickly turned down on profit taking. All of Thursday’s trade took place higher, though April was near low at the close. Feeders also opened higher, but traded up through the day and finished nearer to the high. March closed over both it’s 50 and 200 day moving averages and also closed out a chart gap that was left back in late January, while April marked the best close for the month.   The March WASDE report slightly increased the production forecast for 1st and 3rd quarter beef production, and…

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