All Members: Mid-day

Mixed Midday Trade on China and Weather

Apr 21, 12:15 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** The AM CBOT trade has been mixed with soybeans finding support from Chinese interest for US soybeans off the PNW, while corn and wheat sag on fund selling and improved weather forecasts for planting. The wheat market has surprisingly been pushed sharply lower this week against limited change in the world wheat values as funds added to their near record large net short. In fact, some cash HRW prices are back pushing down against the US farm loan price and producers see no reason to make new crop sales at these depressed prices.   The spot CBOT wheat/corn spread is back at $.46 premium, its lowest level looking back to the ethanol heydays. Cash wheat vs corn is even cheaper,…

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New Fund Selling Pushes KC Wheat to New Lows

Apr 20, 12:06 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** A green morning has turned into a red midday with CBOT corn, soy and wheat all slightly weaker. The volume of trade has been better than recent days with funds piling into additional net short positions. May options expire tomorrow with traders looking to pin the $3.60 price level in corn, $4.10 level in wheat and $9.50 level in soybeans. Friday’s CoT report should reflect another gain in net fund short positions.   ARC notes that July KC wheat is back testing its prior contract low at $4.235 while the low in July Chi wheat rests at $4.20. Minneapolis wheat is correcting on a slightly drier weather forecast which has added to the selling pressure of winter wheat futures….

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Mixed to Mostly Higher; Waiting on Weather

Apr 19, 12:08 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** It has been a mixed morning at the CBOT with corn, soy and wheat trading both sides of unchanged. A slightly wetter weather forecast for the Central US along with talk of larger Chinese soy demand has offered early trade support.  A problem for the bears is that US and world farmers are not active sellers on breaks. As such, with funds already sizeable net shorts, there is a lack of follow through. However, the industry is so bearish that everyone is a seller of rallies. This acts to cap gains. As such, you have a CBOT that is caught in a broad trading range with fund managers frustrated by the lack of a trend.  The frustration of sideways…

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Improved Midwest Forecast Spurs CBOT Selling

Apr 18, 12:26 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Mostly lower is the CBOT this AM as several private forecasters bemoan a drier profile for the Central US. The drier weather forecast (by a few) has traders selling corn and soybeans, while being a more cautious seller of wheat. Minneaplois wheat is actually catching a bid on the potential for tight US stocks and a delayed planted crop in Canada. The cool/wet forecast for Canada has many there talking fewer acres. This is underpinning wheat.   The mentality of the CBOT remains bearish amid large US and world supplies. Such big tonnages cannot be dismissed, but with everyone cock sure that prices have more to fall, one has to be careful at the beginning of a new growing…

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CBOT Turns Lower with Improved Midday GFS Forecast

Apr 17, 12:10 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Mixed is the CBOT at midday. Surging soyoil supports soybeans, while weak corn and wheat values pace the downside decline. The mentality at the CBOT remains bearish with funds heavily short and adding to their net positions. KC wheat is back testing their prior lows while corn gives back some of its recent wet weather gains. The volume of trade has declined from recent days with less than 100,000 contracts of May corn and less than 75,000 contracts of May soybeans changing hands to date. The market has a weak tone at midday and we expect a lower close today to be followed by a turnaround on Tuesday.  ** CBOT traders report that funds have bought 3,500 contracts of…

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Mixed At Midday with the Midday Forecast Wetter

Apr 13, 12:24 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Mixed has been the CBOT at midday. Summer row crop futures are firmer while wheat futures are slightly weaker. The volume of trade has been solid with May corn trading more than 150,000 contracts and 90,000 contracts of May soybeans. Wheat has struggled on corn/wheat spreading. The market has a firm tone heading into the end of the week. The CBOT will be closed on Friday for the Easter Holiday. ARC looks for a strong close with funds continuing to cover shorts in corn and soybeans.    ** CBOT traders report that funds have bought 5,500 contracts of soybeans, 6,000 contracts of corn, while selling 1,200 contracts of wheat. In soybean products, funds have bought 3,000 contracts of soymeal while…

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April WASDE Neutral/Slightly Bearish

Apr 11, 12:10 pm | Mid-day Commentary

The USDA’s April WASDE report is viewed as neutral to bearish corn, wheat and soy complex markets. Most of the USDA’s changes fell in line with trade expectations (reduced US feed consumption, higher South American crops), but confirmation of rising global inventories has triggered a modestly weaker session at the CME. At midday corn is down 3 cents, wheat is down 1-2, and beans are down 6-9.   US corn ending stocks were unchanged, as reduced feed use (50 Mil Bu) is offset by a hike in ethanol’s demand draw. No other categories in the corn balance sheet were changed. US soy stocks were raised 10 Mil Bu to 445 Mil amid reduced residual and no offsetting changes made to…

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Ag Markets Steady on Weather, Fund Positions

Apr 10, 12:03 pm | Mid-day Commentary

Steady to higher has been the week’s opening session, with corn pacing the advance. So far ag markets appear to be reacting to Friday’s CFTC report, which revealed massive short positions in grain futures, with managed funds finally flat in soybeans. Macro markets have also lent some measure of support, with spot crude up $.60/barrel at midday, the Dow is up unchanged and EU milling futures have held on to modest gains of €.50-1.25/MT in new crop contracts (Sep and beyond). Soy oil has been the only laggard this AM following further weakness in Malaysian palm oil futures, which has been driven by a slow but steady boost in monthly production. Palm oil production in March totaled 1.46 Bil MTs,…

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CBOT Mixed in Reduced Volume

Apr 7, 11:58 am | Mid-day Commentary

Mixed has been the CBOT trade so far on Friday. Soybeans and soyoil futures  paced an early rally with wheat in tow. Corn remains solidly in the red on long liquidation and wheat/corn spread unwinding. The volume of trade has been low, with few traders wanting to take on new positions ahead of the weekend and next week’s USDA crop report. CONAB will be out Tuesday AM with their updated Brazilian forecasts, while WASDE will update old crop US and world balance at 11 AM CDT. The market then thinks ahead to the 3 day Easter holiday weekend and whether Midwest corn seed will be able to make into the ground at a faster pace. The forecast following the Easter…

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