** In keeping with the trend of recent trading days, CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures are firmer, reversing prior day losses. The bears have been out in force following the September USDA crop report, but the market has not changed all that much on the week? The bears and bulls both are trying to decide on US corn/soybean yield trends, a debate that early harvest data has not solved. US corn yields are variable, but better than expected according to producers. Soybean yields have fared worse, but there is just not enough data to determine how far below the September NASS report could yields fall? Thus, the debate over yields is ongoing and it will take another week to…
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Markets Steady/Higher; Nov Bean Settlement Important
AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Friday: 1/ No new advice. The CBOT been stronger than producers or traders expected as funds have been covering shorts with November soybeans rising above key resistance at $9.80. The rally above the 200-day moving average (and above a prior high) in November soybeans confirms a price trend of higher highs and higher lows. That same positive trend is noted in wheat, but not corn. Corn is holding in a tight range just above contract lows and has not been able to forge higher highs or even higher lows. US corn export demand is struggling and yields are coming in at higher than expected levels. However, the corn short trade is crowded and…
Midday CBOT Holding Gains; Harvest Accelerating Across Midwest
** It has been a dull and listless trading session at the CBOT with corn, soybeans and wheat futures being little changed. Wheat futures have found support on lower Aussie crop estimates and rising world fob offers, while the fear of the 1st active harvest weekend caps rallies in corn and soybeans. The volume of CBOT trade is poor and few want to take on any large new net positions amid the chop in CBOT values of recent days. ARC looks for a mixed close with some pre hedging noted in the summer row crops going home. The market lacks direction —- and a driver. ** Harvested Midwest corn and soybean yields are highly variable depending on summer and…
CBOT Higher in Reduced Volume; Awaiting the FED and Midwest Yields
** In keeping with the trend of recent trading days, CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures are firmer, reversing prior day losses. The bears have been out in force following the September USDA crop report, but the market has not changed all that much on the week? The bears and bulls both are trying to decide on US corn/soybean yield trends, a debate that early harvest data has not solved. US corn yields are variable, but better than expected according to producers. Soybean yields have fared worse, but there is just not enough data to determine how far below the September NASS report could yields fall? Thus, the debate over yields is ongoing and it will take another week to…
CBOT Sinks on Black Box Selling: Harvest Activity to Increase by the Weekend
** Black Box selling has been the theme at the CBOT with corn, soybeans and wheat sagging under chart based selling. End user scale down buying is noted, but few traders desire to take large positions ahead of the September 29th NASS Stocks and Final Small Grains Report. December corn is back testing recent lows against $3.45 with wheat sagging on ample world supplies, while November soybeans tested $9.5975, the 100 day moving average, while December Chi wheat fell to $4.36 – a 61.8% correction of the most recent advance. The market continues to listen to harvest results which are mixed in corn, with a downward trend in soybeans. Many producers report that their early corn harvest results are…
CBOT Mixed at Midday; Lacking Direction and Volume
** Mixed has been the morning with the grains under pressure while soybeans/ soymeal are strong on Chinese demand. Chinese cash soymeal prices rallied to start the week on active pricing by livestock feeders and other end users. Oil/meal profit taking has also been featured as Friday’s CoT report reflected record large fund managed long soyoil position. The cash soyoil market continues to strengthen on basis, but futures have become overbought. The August NOPA report confirmed record large domestic soyoil demand (we attribute to enlarged US biofuel demand following retroactive import duties) which continue to tug US soyoil stocks lower. Futures markets can correct overbought conditions either by a correction in price or sideways trade. Our lean is to…
Low Volume Corrective CBOT Session; Another NSW Aussie Wheat Freeze This Weekend?
** It has been a give-and-take kind of morning at the CBOT as the grains gain on the soy complex is modest pre-weekend volume. Few traders desire to push either their bullish or bearish cases. ** Soybeans and soymeal have been the upside leaders since Tuesday’s NASS/USDA crop estimates, while the grains have languished. Profit taking on the 40 cent soybean rally while buying in the grains has been featured. ARC notes that the 50 day moving average in November soybeans rests at $9.735 and the 100 day at $9.60. The 200 day moving average crosses at $9.7975. A close above $9.80 November soybeans would suggest that US seasonal lows have been forged with a much more bullish outlook in…
Higher Prices at CBOT Focus on S American Weather;Lower Yield
** CBOT futures have spent the morning at firmer price levels with soybeans providing much of the bullish pull. November soybean futures have pulled above its early September highs at $9.775 and the 50 day moving average which triggered aggressive fund buying. Corn and wheat futures have followed with December Chi wheat testing $4.50 resistance and December corn holding last week’s low at $3.45. The bears are surprised by the strength of the soybean market with values forming an upside reversal. The soybean charts will take a bullish turn with a close in November above $9.78. The bulls claim that the market was thrown bearish supply news that is already digested. ARC would note that if November soybeans close above…
CBOT Bounces on a Lack of Fresh Fund Selling; Market Awaits Harvest Yields
** CBOT grain and soy futures are firmer in morning trade with Tuesday’s big jump in open interest suggested “selling caution” from the bears. CBOT final open interest data offered a 8,794 contract rise in corn, a 13,580 jump in soybeans, and a 1,916 contract gain in wheat. US nor world farmers are willing sellers, so lower CBOT prices all hinges on black box traders and their willingness to add to existing net short positions. ARC’s bet is that CBOT values are sloppily higher into the close with South American weather gaining in importance heading into the weekend. It’s been far too dry across Brazilian soy areas and too wet across Argentina, and this weather pattern does not appear…
NASS Surprises With Record Soybean Pod Weight & Additional Corn Ears
** The USDA September Crop Report is deemed as bearish as NASS adjusted their soybean and corn yields upwards. USDA pegged the September US corn yield at 169.0 BPA and soybeans at 49.9 BPA. Compared to August, the US corn yield was up .4 BPA with soybeans up .5 BPA. The marketplace initially reacted with black box selling, but unlike the August report, funds are already sitting on a sizeable net short position and a cascade of price is not expected. End users will see today’s weakness as buying opportunity. ARC would not be making sales at current prices and we await actual harvest data to help determine if the September NASS yield estimates are correct? Our view has…
Marking Time Before USDA September Report; CBOT Falls on Pre Report Positioning
** Mixed and choppy has been the CBOT this AM with corn and soybeans trading on either side of unchanged, while wheat holds in the red. The volume of trade has been moderate with corn showing the best trade volume. Traders and producers understand that the harvest is dead ahead and that seasonally, CBOT prices tend to soften into late September or early October. As such, few are willing to be overly bullish with a positive USDA report on Tuesday unlikely to follow through to the upside. Combine results will be key to autumn price direction, but any big harvest activity is still several weeks away. Our bet is that November soybeans retest key support at $9.30-9.40, December corn at…