All Members: Mid-day

Markets Fall Despite Solid Weekly Export Sales

Mar 23, 12:11 pm | Mid-day Commentary

It’s been another session in the red, with better than expected export sales unable to spark any fund buying or short covering at midday. Crude is down slightly, having reversed overnight gains, amid ongoing builds in US inventories and calls for a more balanced energy market in 2017 are being questioned. Macro traders await today’s vote on the new US healthcare bill – and then subsequent tax reforms – before establishing large new positions. The Dow at midday is up 85 points. Generally, world weather forecasts remain favorable, and longer term our research does suggest that a major surprise in next week’s stocks/seedings data or adverse weather is needed to attract new longs. However, it is likely that the USDA…

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Markets Stay Weak; US Crude Supplies Swell Further

Mar 22, 12:12 pm | Mid-day Commentary

It’s been a rather uneventful session in Chicago. The soy complex has found chart-based support at $9.95, May, but otherwise activity has been limited. Markets remain weak at midday, despite wheat and soybean export sales announced by FAS this morning, and so far end user demand has been quieter than on Tuesday. China secured two cargoes of US soybeans for new crop arrival. Saudi Arabia through its latest tender bought two cargoes of US HRW. The EIA reported that through the week ending March 17th, US ethanol production totaled 307 Mil gal, down just fractionally from the prior week and compared to 293 Mil on the same week in 2016. Ethanol inventories also shrank 7 Mil Gal to 949 Mil…

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Markets Crawl to Near Unchanged; End User Demand Noted

Mar 21, 12:13 pm | Mid-day Commentary

Markets have been widely mixed, but in a rather narrow range, and the soy complex has flirted with Turnaround Tuesday after all. Corn is steady to 1 cent lower at midday, May beans are up 3, while wheat is down 2-5 amid ongoing favorable Plains weather forecasts. Soy oil has led the day so far, though AgResource can’t chase down any fundamental news. We doubt this AM’s strength is related to biodiesel, though biodiesel production margins are slightly higher this week, but rather our sources suggest that today is more of an oil share trade. As meal fell to test major tech support in early trading, spec buying turned to oil, which has supported gains of $.30-.35/Lb. It’s also apparent…

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Grains Weaken on Weather; Soy Maintains Support

Mar 20, 12:11 pm | Mid-day Commentary

Ag markets have weakened a bit in early morning trade, with more focus being placed on South American weather and harvest progress, and also the GFS operational model continues to expand rainfall coverage across the Western Plains into the first week of April. FAS announced that two cargoes of US corn were sold to South Korea for old crop delivery, but otherwise export news is rather ho-hum. Corn at midday is down 2-3, KC & CME wheat are down 4-7, with beans slightly above unchanged amid recent improvement in Chinese crush margins. Weekly crush data in China also suggests the USDA’s Chinese soybean import forecast is still a bit too low.  US corn planting progress and winter wheat conditions in…

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Markets Dull to End Week

Mar 17, 12:12 pm | Mid-day Commentary

It’s been a rather uneventful day at the CBOT, with corn, wheat and soy futures near unchanged and trading in a very narrow range ($.03, basis May corn). The wheat market continues to shrug off Turkey-Russia tension, as well as this week’s frost/freeze damage across the Southeastern Midwest. No new daily export sales were announced, and macro market are similarly boring. Crude at midday is up a penny, the Dow is down 3 points, and world currencies are doing are very little. EU milling wheat futures in France look to settle with losses of €.25-.50/MT, and the market there is unchanged from the early morning hours. Russian interior wheat prices this week have fallen in ruble terms, but are steady…

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Corn Rallies Again on Exports; Other News Lacking

Mar 16, 12:10 pm | Mid-day Commentary

Corn, wheat and soy complex future are again near unchanged, with meaningful news still largely absent. Outside markets are similarly mixed. Crude is down $.15/barrel, again testing recent lows; the US dollar is unchanged; the DOW is down 15 points; and EU milling wheat futures look to end the day with losses of €.50-1.00/MT.   Weekly US export sales through the week ending March 9th included 49 Mil Bu of corn, vs. 29 Mil a week ago; 10 Mil Bu of wheat, vs. 14 Mil a week ago; 17 Mil Bu of beans, down 1 Mil from the prior week; an impressive 389,000 MTs of meal, vs. 302,000 a week; and sizeable net cancelations of 79 Mil Lbs, vs. net…

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Markets Near Unchanged; NOPA Crush Lower than Expected

Mar 15, 12:11 pm | Mid-day Commentary

It’s been a (slightly) green session in Chicago this AM, with fund selling/liquidation on pause. Crude has rallied $.90/Gal at midday, the DOW is up 50 points, and so macro markets are a bit more supportive. Corn is up 1-2 cents, beans are unchanged, and US wheat futures are up 3-7, with spring wheat contracts leading the way. No new export sales were announced by FAS this AM, despite talk of China securing three cargoes of US corn on Tuesday.  The US Federal Reserve will conclude its March meeting this afternoon, and it’s widely expected that benchmark rates will be raised again. This is largely dialed into the market as job growth and inflation targets have been met. The US…

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Corn Finds Support on Exports; Beans Continue Lower

Mar 14, 12:13 pm | Mid-day Commentary

It’s been another mixed morning at the CBOT, with corn finding support on export demand and with beans still languishing amid rapid harvest progress in South America and the lack of any new export sales announcements this AM.  China has reportedly secured three cargoes of US corn off the PNW, with talk that China may be in the market for 500,000 MTs. This is unconfirmed and sources cite poor quality of domestic feed supplies, but moving forward if more corn is needed by China, South American origin will be thrown into the mix. We doubt that China will embark on a major US buying spree, and a few cargoes are unlikely to affect US annual exports or the world trade…

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Markets Remain Weak Amid Lack of Bullish Spark

Mar 13, 12:09 pm | Mid-day Commentary

It’s been a mixed week-opening session in Chicago, with prices at midday not much different from what was seen overnight. Wheat values have extended overnight losses, though, amid ongoing calls for more expansive precip across the Western Plains in late March, and as the world wheat cash market has faltered. EU milling wheat futures look to close €1.50-1.75/MT lower, with cash markets following suit, and following recent weakness in Russia’s currency, it does appear that Russian wheat farmers have been more aggressive sellers in recent days. Note that the EU market has been weak despite improved export demand, and more and more focus is being shifted to new crop production potential – which as of mid-March is solid across Europe…

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Markets Follow Trend Lower

Mar 10, 11:50 am | Mid-day Commentary

The USDA’s March WASDE, ongoing favorable South American weather and broken down chart patterns all continue to weigh on prices in Chicago. On the week, May corn is down 17 cents, CME wheat is down 11 and beans are down 33. May beans’ failure to find support at its 200-day moving average is cited, though ARC does not advise chasing breaks amid better than expected Chinese soy imports (from all origins), and as NASS’s planting intentions report is just week away. There’s talk that a cargo of Argentine corn has been sold into Veracruz, Mexico for July arrival. No price has been offered, nor is there any confirmation but the rumor is pretty widespread in the cash market. Changes in…

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