All Members: Mid-day

Mixed CBOT Awaiting USDA Outlook Forum

Feb 22, 11:26 am | Mid-day Commentary

 ** Dull and two sided has been the CBOT with neither rallies nor breaks able to carry through. Corn remains the CBOT stalwart with traders spreading long corn against soybeans and wheat, hoping for reduced 2017 seeding and bullish data from USDA at their upcoming Outlook Forum. The market lacks fresh news, but large yield reports from the Brazilian soybean harvest are keeping price pressure on the complex. The market feels like the a mixed close going home.  ** FAS announced the cancellation of 136,000 MTs of optional origin sales of corn for delivery to South Korea in the 2016/17 crop year. World importers are seeing cheaper prices from Argentina for corn shipment beyond the end of March. This is…

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Slow Mixed CBOT at Midday

Feb 21, 11:58 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Overnight gains melted in to AM selling with hedge related pressure felt from the expanding South American soybean harvest. Wheat and corn were already under pressure, and the selling in soybeans just added to their losses. Modest scale down end user pricing is noted, but lacking is the big fund interest that has been noted during last week. ARC’s bet is for a slightly lower close with the market then waiting for the USDA Outlook Forum on Thursday and Friday.  ** The USDA announced the sale of 269,296 MTs of corn for delivery to Japan. Of that total, 164,592 MTs was for delivery during the 2017/18 crop year. Also, there was a sale of 111,200 MTs of corn sold…

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Brazilian Soy Crop Estimates Increasing; Fund Buying Slows

Feb 17, 11:14 am | Mid-day Commentary

** A modest round of fund buying emerged in the CBOT following the 8:30 AM CST opening which helped spark a rally back to unchanged in soymeal, which lifted corn, soybeans and wheat off their lows. The demand was not nearly strong enough to lift CBOT values into the green and prices are back sliding lower at midday. China is already enjoying its weekend and with a long US weekend ahead, few are willing to take on any new additional market length. ARC looks for a lower close today with the key whether soybeans close above or below their 50 day moving average at $10.46 basis May soybean futures?  ** This afternoon the CFTC will release their weekly Commitment of…

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Funds Return to Buy Corn/Wheat; China Slowing Demand in Soy

Feb 16, 11:08 am | Mid-day Commentary

** AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Thursday: 1/ Corn Producers:  Forward sell/hedge an estimated 30% of your estimated 2018 corn crop if    Dec’18 corn futures reach $4.14.   2/ Soybean Producers: Sell another 10% of the 2016 soybean crop at the  market. We missed our sales order this AM at $10.74 by .75 of a cent. This    would take 2016 cash sales to 90%.    3/ Corn Producers: Sell another 10% of your 2016 corn crop if May corn  futures reach $3.87. **Filled ** CBOT morning trade has been mixed with weekly export sales and the prospect of additional fund demand providing some support. Corn and wheat has scored    new rally highs with the soybean market trading both sides of…

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Funds Return with New CBOT Buying

Feb 15, 11:11 am | Mid-day Commentary

** AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Wednesday: 1/ Corn Producers:  Forward sell/hedge an estimated 30% of your estimated 2018 corn crop if  Dec’18 corn futures reach $4.14. New Advice: 2/ Soybean Producers: Sell an estimated 15% of the 2017 soybean   crop at $10.30 or better basis November soybean futures.    ** The CBOT started out the session lower and have recovered on new speculative buying. No bullish fundamental news is available, it just appears that fund managers are continuing to look at grains as cheap and make new investment. ARC doubts that funds can sustain any lasting bullish run, but the market has not yet technically provided any chart based sell signal. ARC looks for a mixed close going home.  …

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CBOT Rally Tires; Will Fund Demand Return at the Close?

Feb 14, 11:29 am | Mid-day Commentary

** CBOT futures take a breather following their post the USDA February Crop Report rally. Funds have piled into a sizeable new net long positions in corn, soybeans, soymeal in the past 5 trading days. In wheat, funds have covered a large share of their net short position. Surging corn and soybean open interest has reflected this “fund buying spree” which should be reflected in Friday’s CFTC CoT report.  ** US farmers should be sending fund managers “Valentine’s” as they run up prices for new cash sales and they boost the revenue insurance program average price. US farmers enjoy the CBOT rising since they are able to profit in two forms. In fact, US farmers are pleased that December corn is again…

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Funds Return With New Demand; Big Cash Corn Movement

Feb 13, 11:36 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Early weakness uncovered fresh fund demand with CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures all rising heading into the midday hour. This would be the 4th day of active fund demand. Traders expect that fund purchases in the ag space is expected to wane as the week advances.   Funds placed ags on their inflationary purchase list which is evident in the open interest totals from Friday. Final open interest from Feb 10th indicated that corn open interest (OI) was up 42,469 contracts and soybeans up 16,795 contracts, while Chicago wheat open interest was down 1,766 contracts. Remember that funds are still coming out of their net short wheat positions – while adding to their summer row crop longs.   …

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Fund Managers Like the Grains; South American Weather Improves

Feb 10, 11:49 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Funds have been solid buyers of corn, soybeans and wheat as futures prices rise above key technical resistance with the wheat/corn reaching their best levels mid summer. March soybeans are back testing key resistance at $10.60-10.80 with US cash connected selling offering resistance. US cash grain merchants tell ARC cash corn movement has picked up noticeably on the rally with basis levels in retreat. March 2018 corn has allowed Central IL cash corn prices to reach close to $3.90/Bu – and farmers are responding by selling new crop corn under HTA’s or forward contracts. The Brazilian farmer has only been a modest seller of his new crop harvest.  ** IMEA estimated the Mato Grosso soybean harvest is 45.7% vs…

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WASDE Report Slightly Bullish Grain; Neutral Soy

Feb 9, 11:45 am | Mid-day Commentary

** AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Thursday: 1/ Corn Producers: Sell another 10% of your estimated 2016 corn crop if March corn futures reach $3.72.** Filled.  2/ Corn Producers: Forward sell/hedge another 15% of your estimated 2017 corn production if Dec 2017 corn futures reach $3.985. ** Filled 3/ Corn Producers: Forward sell/hedge an estimated 30% of your estimated 2018 corn crop if Dec’18 corn futures reach $4.14. 4/ Wheat Producers: Sell another 10% of 2016 production at $4.50 basis May Chi wheat futures. This would push 2016 sales to 85%. ** Filled          ** US weekly export sales for the week ending February 2nd were; 19.4 Mil Bu of wheat, 38.3 Mil Bu of corn, and 19.7 Mil Bu…

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CBOT Soy Surges on Chinese Demand; Grains Follow

Feb 8, 11:23 am | Mid-day Commentary

** The soy complex has maintained its rally while the grain markets have held modestly in the red in moderate early CBOT volume. The soy markets have been supported by rising South American fob basis offers and active Chinese demand on the return from their Lunar New Year holiday. Corn and wheat values have languished on slowing US export demand with the corn market bumping against key chart based resistance. The markets are in waiting mode ahead of the USDA report on Thursday. US nor South American farm sales have been active. Many South American farmers are awaiting higher soybean prices before making new sales. ARC looks for a mostly firmer CBOT close as soy drags the grains higher at…

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