All Members: Mid-day

CBOT Takes Back all of Thursday’s Decline as China Rumored to Have Bought US Corn

Nov 17, 11:03 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Green is the color of the morning as CBOT wheat, corn, soybeans gain into the midday hour. Soymeal/soyoil spreading has been noted on the dry weather trend that prevails across Argentina and the uncertainty surrounding the biodiesel mandate that has to be announced by the EPA before November 30th. Argentina is the world’s largest soymeal exporter, so if the La Nina inspired dry weather trend were to persist into early 2018, the market impact would be squarely on CBOT soymeal. Corn and wheat appear to be entering in a short covering market mode heading into next week’s holiday shortened trade. Seasonally, it’s the time of the year that CBOT prices rally as farmers finish harvest and have no interest…

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Corn Inches To New Low; Otherwise, Direction Lacking

Nov 16, 11:30 am | Mid-day Commentary

Mixed in reduced volume best describes CBOT this AM. Corn and soybeans have traded lower on weak US weekly export sales while the wheat market recovers on spreading and gains in protein wheat. No one has much passion for a long or short position at the CBOT, and the trend of sideways trade persists. Corn has pushed to a new contract low as spot futures targets the $3.30-3.50 downside double bottom target left from late summer. December corn is within 1.5-6.5 cents from this objective. The up one day down the next trade looks to persist. We expect that traders will want to position long on Friday ahead of the weekend and the weekly CoT report which should reflect an…

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Wheat Down on Egypt Uncertainty; Row Crops Steady at Midday

Nov 15, 11:27 am | Mid-day Commentary

The CBOT has witnessed mixed grain trade at midday. The wheat market has been lurching lower based on fund order flow amid Egyptian demand concern, while corn/soy futures are higher on short covering. Traders are talking that funds may be sitting on a record net short corn position that is exceeding 235,000 contracts! That along with the growing gains in cash basis for interior Midwest corn/soybeans has CBOT row crop futures higher. Wheat has not been following any real trend as of late, and price action has been about the buying or selling activities of funds. Russian and EU wheat fob offers have been declining which is acting to cap CBOT rallies, while the big fund short in wheat is…

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Grains Follow Crude Lower; GFS Wetter in Argentina

Nov 14, 11:45 am | Mid-day Commentary

Wheat futures have found support amid a much weaker US dollar, but row crop markets continue to drift lower. Dec corn has found new contract lows as delivery approaches, and another day has passed without any new soybean sales announced by FAS. Exporters did sell two cargoes of corn to an unknown destination this AM though. The wheat market in particular since 2016 has weakened into first notice day, then rallied through the delivery period. Interior corn basis across the Central Plains and Western Midwest remains 30-40 cents below futures. There’s no one major piece of bearish news available, but rather it appears to be a risk-off day in raw materials. Crude is down $1.20/barrel at midday, and spot crude’s…

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Markets Extend Losses at Midday; Brazilian Forecast Favorable

Nov 13, 11:41 am | Mid-day Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybeans have extended their overnight losses, and with wheat leading the way down ARC suspects much of this is currency/macro driven. The US dollar at midday is a bit higher, while all other major exporting currencies are weaker. Crude has been back and forth this morning but currencies have failed to respond to any energy rallies, and so there’s just no fodder available to encourage any new spec buying/short covering. Brazilian corn export shipments were a sizeable 1.1 MMTs, with another 3.4 MMTs due to be shipped in the next several weeks. This is more in line with the USDA’s forecast, and ARC mentions Brazilian corn exports are likely to continue into the very early part of…

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CBOT Bounces on Bottom Picking and Seasonal Trends

Nov 10, 12:00 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Midday CBOT Grain and Oilseed Comment: A mixed start produced modest buying with CBOT corn, soybeans and wheat slightly higher at midday. The large short positions of funds and big jump in Thursday’s corn open interest  has traders looking for a reason to be a buyer. However, the ongoing Midwest harvest and the oversupply of US grain is capping gains. And corn appears to be up via the short covering in wheat, while soybeans uncovered modest Chinese pricing on the AM decline. ARC doubts that the CBOT can sustain any lasting recovery, today’s CBOT advance appears to be a “dead cat” bounce. ** CBOT brokers estimate that funds have bought 3,100 contracts of corn, 1,900 contracts of wheat, and…

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Back to Back Record Large US Corn Yields; CBOT Values Retreat Following WASDE Report

Nov 9, 11:54 am | Mid-day Commentary

** USDA November Crop Report Analysis: The USDA November crop report failed to offer any bullish fodder with CBOT prices in retreat at midday. An all time record large US corn yield of 175.4 BPA was reported by NASS. This year’s big US corn yield argues that should normal summer growing conditions develop, the US could produce its first corn yield above 180 BPA. The US soybean yield was left unchanged at 49.5 BPA which means that large US corn and soybean end stocks persist. US corn and soybean exports were left unchanged, with the only export change being in wheat with an increase of 25 Mil Bu to 1,000 Mil Bu. The report is not going to alter prevailing…

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Prevailing Themes Intact; Grains Down, Soy Steady

Nov 8, 10:53 am | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Wednesday: 1/Corn Producers: Sell 10% of the estimated ‘18 corn harvest at $4.01 basis Dec 2018 futures. 2/ Corn Producers: Sell 10% of estimated ‘19 corn production at $4.17 basis Dec 2019 futures. 3/ Corn Producers: Sell 15% if the 2017 corn crop if March 2018 corn futures reach $3.72. Pre-report positioning remains the AM theme at the CBOT with soyoil futures breaking out to the topside on the charts. December soyoil futures has surged to new rally highs (above the late October top at $35.13) with the next upside price target being the late summer highs at $36.00. The rally in soyoil has supported soybean futures as funds continue to use the soy…

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CBOT Mixed At Midday as Traders Position For Thursday’s USDA Report

Nov 7, 11:25 am | Mid-day Commentary

** It has been a mixed morning at the CBOT with the grains lower and the soy complex higher on pre report positioning and fund dealings. Funds are heavily long soy vs the grains on spreads, and they are pushing their case based on growing profits. Moreover, the USDA Nov Crop Report on Thursday is expected to confirm enlarged 2017 US corn yields with a decline in the 2017  US soybean yield. Pre report positioning is ongoing with resistance noted just above $10.00 in January soybeans while support rests under $3.46 in December corn. Chi December wheat remains bound in a range of; $4.10-4.30 ahead of 1st notice day and weak cash markets. ARC looks for existing midday trends to…

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CBOT Soy Rallies on Fund Buying in Soy/Grains; USDA November Report in Sight

Nov 6, 11:20 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Low volume and slightly higher as been the CBOT this AM. The grains were the bullish leader to start, but soybeans have been the new upside leader at midday as traders think ahead to the USDA report on Thursday. NASS is expected to raise US corn yield, but could cut soybeans based on the sharp fall off of yield data across the N Midwest. Moreover, China’s 2016/17 all origin soybean imports should be raised to 93.5 MMTs which could bump up the current crop year by 1-2 MMTs. And India’s soybean crop should be lowered due to the sporadic summer monsoon. ARC would also mention that Russian and Ukraine corn yields are coming in far below WASDE forecasts which…

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