AgResource Midday Commentary; Record US Corn Yield a Bearish Surprise at 177.3 BPA; US 2023/24 Soybean Stocks Nudge Higher on Yield hike with USDA’s Brazil Soybean Crop at 157 MMTs

CBOT values are  sharply lower following the USDA January Crop Report. The report raised US corn and soybean yields and cut harvested acres. 2024 US winter wheat seedings fell 2.3 Mil acres to 34.4 Mil acres. The biggest wheat class drop occurred in US SRW seeding which was down 13% to 6.86 Mil acres with…

AgResource Midday Commentary; CBOT Mixed In Pre Report Positioning; Midday GFS Forecast Drier for SC and N Brazil; US Weekly Export Sales were Poor

CBOT values are mixed with profit taking noted in long grain/short soy spreads ahead of the January USDA report tomorrow. Trade volume has been more active this morning due to pre-report positioning. The January USDA report is the most important of the winter and several large funds wait until after the report to engage in…

AgResource Midday Commentary; CBOT Choppy Awaiting USDA Report on Friday and Another Poor Week of US Export Sales on Thursday; China Books Brazilian Soybeans

Another slug of fund/momentum selling was evident in the first hour following the 8:30 AM CT day session opening. The spec selling was felt in corn, soymeal, soybeans — and to a lesser degree in wheat. Much of this selling is based on prevailing bearish price trends and momentum. Algos/AI pushes trends until the market…

AgResource Midday Commentary; CBOT Bounces on Tuesday on Short Covering; Oil/Meal Spreading Featured Along with Short Soybeans/Long Grains/ GASC Tender Results Awaited

It’s Turnaround Tuesday following some early day speculative selling in soybeans/meal shortly after the opening. Managed money is liquidating a stale/unprofitable soymeal position which tugged March soybeans to a new low at $12.34. ARC estimates that funds are 29–32,000 contracts of soymeal long – which they are trying to get out of to cut their…

AgResource Midday Commentary; Key Chart Support is tested in Corn/Soyoil; March Soybeans Below $12.50 Support; Index Funds Start Rebalance on the Close

CBOT grains are sharply lower at midday with corn, soybeans, soymeal and soyoil scoring new lows for the decline. March corn futures are targeting $4.50 – the delivery low of December futures – while March soybeans fell easily below $12.50 chart-based support amid ongoing fund selling. China remains absent as a cash buyer of Brazilian…