All Members: Mid-day

Fund Selling in Soy Complex; Reducing Risk Ahead of USDA Report

Nov 3, 12:01 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** CORRECTION: This morning ARC commented that the USDA November Crop report is on the 8th. The 2017 November USDA crop report is on Thursday November 9th. We inadvertently used the 2018 WASDE calendar.  ** Red has been the CBOT color of the morning as corn, soybeans and wheat  sag. Funds started selling soybeans after the day session started which has modestly spilled into the grains. The volume of trade has been below recent days. Traders are talking about this afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report (CoT) which is expected show that funds added 14-20,000 contracts of long soybeans, while being heavily short grains (200,000 contracts of corn/ 95-100,000 contracts of wheat). The fund liquidation is pushing soybean futures into…

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CBOT Rallies on Fund Buying; Bearish Fundamentals Unchanged

Nov 2, 12:17 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Higher in moderate volume has been the CBOT with corn, soybeans and wheat holding in the green at midday. Fund managers are on the buy side of the grains as they further trim net short positions while adding length in soybeans as January futures push against psychological resistance at $10.00. It’s important to point out that the CBOT rally is based largely on fund flows and technical considerations ahead of next week’s USDA November crop report. The CBOT has a firm feel and is likely to close higher. Unlike the October report, it feels like the market wants to place some premium in price just in case yields decline. Traders are still smarting from the October report and the…

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CBOT Rebounds on Fund Buying and Large Fund Short Grain Positions

Nov 1, 12:27 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** CBOT values are higher in midday trade as Wednesday’s large jump in corn and soybean open interest sparks short covering and positioning ahead of private crop estimates that will be released in the next 24 hours. The bears are surprised by the soybean rally, but seasonally it’s the wrong time of year to be bearish as the US row crop harvest winds down. Fund managers appear to have a mindset of buying the CBOT as they see values as historically cheap in a background of rising raw asset prices. A close above $9.94 January soybeans sets an upside target of $10-10.10 pre report.  ** Traders are whispering that FC Stone and Informa will raise their November US corn yield…

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CBOT Grain Futures Weaker; Soy Holding On Lower Yields

Oct 31, 12:21 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** The grain bears have sold heavily to push corn/wheat values lower, which initially dragged soybeans down. However, strong export demand for soybeans and narrowing cash basis bids have pushed beans back higher at midday. The market has a mixed feel going home with fund managers continuing to push the grains lower. Funds are quickly approaching a net short corn position of 200,000 contracts and net short of over 90,000 contracts in Chi wheat.  ** It’s hard to get your head around it, but how can US corn yield keep climbing and US soybean yields keep falling? This tug and push of row crop yield is likely to keep CBOT trade sideways into the November USDA crop report. ARC sees…

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CBOT Mixed as the US Dollar Starts to Decline

Oct 30, 12:20 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** It has been a quiet morning at the CBOT as corn/soybeans trade either side of unchanged, while the wheat market grinds lower on additional fund selling. The volume of trade was active early as liquidation persisted in November soybean futures prior to 1st notice day on Tuesday. There was 53,800 contracts of November soybean open interest at Friday’s close. This likely has to decline closer to 20-25,000. The Nov liquidation has pulled CBOT soy futures lower following an overnight rally. Fund managers tell ARC that they are looking for the right spot to add to long soybean/soyoil futures.  ** CBOT grains are mixed with world wheat prices edging lower while the US corn harvest surpasses the 50% mark. The…

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Grains Extend Losses; Beans Extend Rally

Oct 27, 12:18 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Friday: 1/Corn Producers: Sell 10% of the estimated ‘18 corn harvest at $4.01 basis Dec 2018 futures. 2/ Corn Producers: Sell 10% of estimated ‘19 corn production at $4.17 basis Dec 2019 futures. 3/ Corn Producers: Sell 15% if the 2017 corn crop is March 2018 corn futures reach $3.72. It’s been more of the same so far in Chicago, with grain futures extended overnight losses slightly, and with the soy complex sustaining modest gains. Weekend hedge pressure is noted in corn, as a much more robust pace of harvesting is expected over the next 2-3 weeks – recall a majority of the crop as of this week is still in the field –…

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Corn, Soy Export Sales Support Markets at Midday

Oct 26, 12:08 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Thursday: 1/Corn Producers: Sell 10% of the estimated ‘18 corn harvest at $4.01 basis Dec 2018 futures. 2/ Corn Producers: Sell 10% of estimated ‘19 corn production at $4.17 basis Dec 2019 futures. 3/ Corn Producers: Sell 15% if the 2017 corn crop is March 2018 corn futures reach $3.72. It’s been mixed and dull morning, with better than expected export sales supporting corn & beans, and with weak sales and a lack of fresh news weighing on US wheat futures. Crude has recovered its overnight losses, gasoline futures continue higher, and even ethanol has joined the rally. However, there is more evidence that world wheat cash prices are unlikely to erode anytime soon,…

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Markets Off Session Highs; Ethanol Production Up Again

Oct 25, 12:03 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Wednesday: 1/Corn Producers: Sell 10% of the estimated ‘18 corn harvest at $4.01 basis Dec 2018 futures. 2/ Corn Producers: Sell 10% of estimated ‘19 corn production at $4.17 basis Dec 2019 futures. 3/ Corn Producers: Sell 15% if the 2017 corn crop is March 2018 corn futures reach $3.72. It’s been another mixed morning, with all markets off session highs, currencies weakening in a host of major exporting countries, and again grain markets have been unable to exceed chart-based resistance. Crude is down $.50/barrel following a slight build in US inventories last week. The US dollar has extended its overnight losses modestly.  US crude inventories less strategic reserves through the week ending October…

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Grains Steady, Soy Weaker; Fresh Input Needed

Oct 24, 12:17 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Tuesday: 1/Corn Producers: Sell 10% of the estimated ‘18 corn harvest at $4.01 basis Dec 2018 futures. 2/ Corn Producers: Sell 10% of estimated ‘19 corn production at $4.17 basis Dec 2019 futures. 3/ Corn Producers: Sell 15% if the 2017 corn crop is March 2018 corn futures reach $3.72. It’s been a mixed morning in Chicago, with grains steady and the soy complex slightly lower. Soy oil has held in decently following an announcement that the US Commerce Department has set preliminary 50-70% anti-dumping duties on Argentine & Indonesian biodiesel (which Indonesia will contest), but the pace of soy harvest and soon-to-improve Brazilian weather has weighed on the market. Note that the EIA’s…

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Short Covering Boosts Grain Markets at Midday

Oct 23, 12:30 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Monday: 1/Corn Producers: Sell 10% of the estimated ‘18 corn harvest at $4.01 basis Dec 2018 futures. 2/ Corn Producers: Sell 10% of estimated ‘19 corn production at $4.17 basis Dec 2019 futures. 3/ Corn Producers: Sell 15% if the 2017 corn crop is March 2018 corn futures reach $3.72. Higher has been the morning in Chicago as fund short exit grain markets, with the soy complex in tow. There’s not a lot of fresh news at midday, but there’s a general expectation that interior US basis looks to improve as corn harvest reaches 50-55% complete, and as bean harvest surpasses 80% finished in the next two weeks.  No new export sales were announced…

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