All Members: Mid-day

Grains Ease, Soy Remains Firm on China

Feb 6, 11:28 am | Mid-day Commentary

** If there was any doubt that fund managers want to be on the long side of the soybean market, today’s price action should provide clear notice. Funds have been buyers of the soy complex from the get-go with the grains trading either side of unchanged. March soybean futures has taken back all of Friday’s decline which was based on growing Brazilian soy crop estimates. The ship line up for Brazilian soybeans is record large at the same time that the US is still shipping out 60 Mil Bu/per week. The message is that world soybean demand is robust which for now is countering the supply rise of the Brazilian harvest.   Corn and wheat are following, but the recent…

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CBOT Weaker On Larger Brazilian Crop

Feb 3, 12:08 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Mixed to start, but weaker at midday as fund demand slows and traders discuss a ’17 Brazilian soy crop estimate from SAFRAS of 107.0 MMTs. Such a crop size has been bandied around in the CBOT trade for weeks with some even guessing that the final size could be as large as 108-110 MMTs.   ARC doubts that CONAB will come up with a crop that is larger than 105 MMTs in its forecast next week, but harvest yield data will be closely watched in the weeks ahead. The lean of the trade continues to be that the 2017 Brazilian soy crop will grow, not decline in terms of yield/supply.   Corn and wheat have softened with the decline…

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Chop/Chop at the CBOT; Awaiting China’s Return

Feb 2, 11:26 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Sloppy/choppy has been the morning CBOT trade with corn, soybeans and wheat trading either side of unchanged. The market appears to be “resting” following Wednesday’s strong rally with bull spreading in the corn market and dryness in the US Plains offering support. The US farmer has sold the vast majority of their old crop beans and is moving cash corn on rallies. However, neither the US nor South American farmer is showing a big impetus to sell cash grain at these prices. Farmers tell ARC that if the CBOT pushed to new highs that there would be improved cash selling. Our bet today is for a mixed close with Friday being a day of strength following the more bullish…

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Funds Cheer CBOT Rally on Limited S American Cash Sales

Feb 1, 11:57 am | Mid-day Commentary

** The CBOT morning trade started out weaker, but quickly rallied into the green on a combination of fund buying and rumors of the potential of fresh Chinese demand. Some Chinese traders are returning from the holiday and have future soy demand to cover. Moreover, there is a bullish meal seasonal price trend that is being discussed following their Lunar New Year holiday. ARC’s bet is for a green CBOT close, and that oil gains on meal as the US cash meal market remains under significant pressure. Cash meal discounts continue to weaken relative to futures, which is acting as a drag on the soybean recovery.    Finally, there has been talk that the fresh Russian/Ukraine military clashes in E Ukraine…

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Markets Extend Losses at Midday; South American Weather Unchanged

Jan 30, 11:48 am | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Monday: 1/ Corn Producers: Sell another 10% of your estimated 2016 corn crop if March corn futures reach $3.72. 2/ Corn Producers: Forward sell/hedge another 15% of your estimated 2017 corn production if Dec 2017 corn futures reach $3.985. 3/ Corn Producers: Forward sell/hedge an estimated 30% of your estimated 2018 corn crop if Dec’18 corn futures reach $4.14. 4/ Wheat Producers: Sell another 10% of 2016 production at $4.50 basis May Chi wheat futures. This would push 2016 sales to 85%.          CME futures have extended overnight losses in decent volume, as midday models maintain a favorable pattern shift in Argentina this week – as well as offering the chance of soaking rainfall across…

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Slower and Lower at Midday at the CBOT

Jan 27, 11:56 am | Mid-day Commentary

** The morning has been mostly lower at the CBOT as technical pressure weighs on CBOT grains amid a lack of bullish demand news. With Asia closed for the holiday, the market is weaker in slow volume with just over 42,000 contracts of March soybeans being traded at 11 AM CST.   The volume has been all in the grains with active fund selling from the re-opening of Chicago. Funds have sold wheat as it fell below the 100 day moving average while soyoil has tested its 200 day moving average at $34.02. ARC maintains that we should see some buying going home. Traders do not want to be overly short with South American weather concerning. Moreover, a large fund…

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CBOT Sags on Mexican Trade Worry

Jan 26, 11:13 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Lower has been morning session with soybeans sagging to new weekly lows. An early rally was not able to carry through on weak US and South American soy cash markets. CBOT values are weaker at midday with March soybeans in the gap.   The volume of CBOT trade has been in decline as traders are tiring of the back-and-forth trade. ARC expects that this battle of macro bullish funds and bearish cash fundamental traders. Unfortunately, CBOT markets are expected to hold in broad trading ranges until there is better clarity on S American crop sizes and spring N Hemisphere weather.  ** CBOT traders estimate that funds have sold 2,000 contracts of corn and 5,200 contracts of soybeans, while buying 1,900…

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Low Volume and Choppy CBOT

Jan 25, 1:06 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** The morning has been mixed at the CBOT with corn trying to bounce off $3.60 March support, while soybean futures sag to a weekly open chart gap that rests at $10.41-10.50 March, while wheat is caught in between the two summer row crops. The volume of AM CBOT trade has been moderate with the US Dow pushing above 20,000 for the first time on record. The sideways trade of the morning looks to continue going home. The weekly US export sales report and Argentine crop estimate from their ag ministry will be closely followed on Thursday. The reflation of the US and world economy is adding support. Fund managers will not be willing sellers until they are certain about…

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