All Members: Mid-day

Midday GFS Brings the Ridge into the Midwest Week: Much Warmer Temps Ahead

Jul 6, 12:15 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** The AM trading session has been corrective with US wheat futures enduring rounds of profit taking amid overbought technical considerations. Corn and soy futures have followed, but traders are impressed with the ability of soybeans to hold around steady levels!   ARC notes that Minneapolis Sept wheat has traded in a wide 64 cent trading range as market volatility expands. More than 115,000 contracts of Sept Chi wheat futures have already changed hands (3x normal daily volume) and the interest from funds to trade wheat is expanding.   Research suggests that there is value on any break below $7.50 spot Minn wheat futures and ARC doubt’s that seasonal or annual highs have been forged. The break in wheat is largely…

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Mixed CBOT with Wheat Seeing Profit Taking; Midday GFS Drier for Next 10 Days

Jul 5, 12:16 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Volatile and sharply mixed has been the CBOT with the grains trading either side of unchanged, while soy futures hold in the green. The AM volume of trade has been sizable as market participant’s debate Central US weather forecasts.      Weather forecasters are non-committal the long range Central US weather pattern beyond the next 10 days. Thus, it’s not the straight forward hot/dry forecast that the bulls desire. As such, traders are looking to US crop condition ratings to help define yields. Today, crop ratings are expected to be little changed from last week, but decline next week.   Also the bullish stalwart, Minneapolis wheat, has traded in a wide $.94/Bu range this morning and forged a bearish reversal. The…

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Weather and Short Funds Cause CBOT Fireworks into July 4th

Jul 3, 11:13 am | Mid-day Commentary

** The CBOT will be closing at 12 Noon CDT today for the July 4th US Holiday. ARC will produce a noon wire today, but we will not produce a PM research wire. The CBOT reopens on Wednesday morning at the 8:30 AM CDT. The NASS crop weekly condition/progress report will be released Wednesday afternoon.  ** Sharply higher has been the morning with CB0T corn, soy and wheat futures posting solid gains. The rally has been largely based on Central US weather forecasts being warmer/drier, and the concern for crops in the Plains and the NW Midwest. July is the month that makes or breaks corn and traders are well aware of this fact. ARC as of today would not argue…

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NASS June Stock and Seeding Report Send CBOT Soaring

Jun 30, 12:34 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** USDA June Stocks and Seeding Report Analysis: The USDA June Stocks & Seeding report offered mixed results, but was generally taken as bullish by the marketplace amid the threat of additional warm/dry weather across the Plains and the NW Midwest. CBOT soybeans, corn and wheat futures are sharply higher at midday.    US 2017 cropped acres as estimated by NASS equaled 318,184 Mil acres, down 1,058 Mil acres from the prior year. Total US cropped acres confirmed that US farmers seeded all available acres despite low prices and profitability. Historically, the US Gov’t has to pay farmers to set aside acres, or severe flooding must occur to cut back on US seeded acres.   The USDA reported ‘17 US…

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Markets Rally on Canadian Acres, Extended US Forecast

Jun 29, 12:12 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Thursday: 1/No new advice.   CBOT futures at midday are firmly in the green as the US weather forecast maintains warm and dry weather in the 6-15 day period (vs. cool-ish and wet weather during this time a year ago) and as Stats Canada acreage data this AM suggests rationing US spring wheat supplies will be more difficult than expected. The US dollar has found new 9-month lows, crude is up slightly, and ahead of what is essentially a 4-day weekend, position squaring is noted. Stats Can pegged Canadian spring wheat planted area at 6.39 Mil Hectares, down 353,000 from its April report. Winter wheat and durum seedings were raised slightly, but total Canadian…

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Waiting for USDA on Friday; Central US Ridge Position being Debated by Forecast Models

Jun 28, 12:14 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures are mixed at midday in rather good volume. Much of the volume is related to the rolling of July futures forward ahead of 1st notice day on Friday. The real market story continues to be in Minneapolis wheat and the ongoing loss of hi pro spring wheat supply. Yield estimates continue to be trimmed with current expectations falling to 34-35 BPA as below normal rainfall and heat further threatens US HRS production.   And the market is concerned that Canadian producers have seeded more canola that spring wheat and that their uneven growing conditions won’t be enough to fill demand. Spot July Chi Minn wheat reached ARC’s 1st upside price target at $7.00…

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Markets Near Unchanged in Low Volume

Jun 26, 11:51 am | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Monday: 1/ No new advice.   Low volume and mixed has been the morning CBOT trade. Traders expect that US corn and soybean crop conditions will improve this afternoon and they are willing to wait for additional confirmation of heat after July 4th US holiday with rain in the 7 day forecast. The Midwest warmth does not start until after July 5th holiday. Traders are always suspect of any extended range forecast. Confirmation of a North American pattern change and better understanding this week’s rainfall will key CBOT price direction into Friday’s USDA Crop Report. As we stated on the AM wire, we look for a general sideways trade this week with breaks uncovering…

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Corn/Soy Pushes to New Lows on Non Threatening Central US Weather

Jun 23, 12:18 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Mixed in modest volume has been the CBOT at midday. Corn and soy futures continue to sag while the wheat market firms on declining US and world production and the cancellation of deliverable receipts.  Traders continue to debate the July Central US weather pattern and whether the dry trend of June will persist and whether heat will return? All ARC would offer to the discussion is that in late May, every trader was concerned by the continuation of cool/wet weather and June ended up to be one of the warmest/driest months since 2012. The point is that everyone should keep an open mind to weather and that this year’s erratic pattern to date is likely to continue?  Our feeling is…

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Lower on Fund Selling and Non Threatening Central US Weather

Jun 22, 12:08 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Continued weakness is the story at the CBOT this AM as July corn pushes below trendline support at $3.66 while soybeans sag on non-threatening Central US weather. Wheat prices are down on technical selling and a correction of the recent rally. The volume of CBOT AM trade is much reduced from prior days with traders not inspired to take on new positions. US farm sales have slowed and fund managers will have to keep selling if CBOT prices are to continue their decline. Wheat continues to have the bullish fundamental story, but the market had become overbought and a correction was needed. ARC continues our advice of recent weeks; “Don’t buy strong rallies or sell strong breaks”.  ** CBOT…

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