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Markets Chop Into Weekend; All Eyes on Irma’s Path

Sep 8, 12:21 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Friday: 1/ No new advice. It’s been another choppy and mostly uneventful session so far. US export sales through the week ending August 31st were mixed, with old crop positions being rolled to new crop, and many questions still exist with respect to Irma’s impact in the Southern and Eastern Midwest where rainfall is needed. Corn & wheat are up 2-4 cents; beans are down 2-3.  Including old crop carryover sales, cumulative 17/18 corn commitments rest at 412 Mil Bu, down 46% from last year but up slightly from this week in 2015. Certainly, export demand will not be a feature of the corn market until early 2018, and thereafter world corn trade flows…

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Grains Extend Losses; US Dollar to New Multi-Year Low

Sep 7, 12:12 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Thursday: 1/ No new advice. It’s been a more mixed morning in Chicago and elsewhere. Grain futures have extended losses at midday, while the soy complex and energy markets are slightly positive. Irma’s path, along with the midday GFS, are little changed, and so while the Gulf will be spared by tropical activity through the latter part of September, very little rainfall is projected into the end of the growing season. Europe has confirmed that it will allow imports of biodiesel from Argentina, which will act to replace lost US demand. A major shuffling of biodiesel/soy oil trade flows is in the works, but ARC’s work suggest lofty soy oil prices are likely a…

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Markets Up Slightly Again on Macros; Dry Central US

Sep 6, 12:02 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Wednesday: 1/ No new advice. It has been another mildly green session, with corn, wheat and soybeans up 2-4 cents at midday. Spot soy oil continues to flirt with multi-month highs following last week’s June biodiesel production number and as more talk circulates surrounding the potential of lower than expected oil yield based on this year’s cool finish to the growing season. Crude has joined the rally and is up $.80/barrel, while the US dollar is again testing 92 points, below which little support exists down to 90 or so. Macro markets remain supportive. In its daily release, FAS announced that US exporters sold 253,300 MTs of corn to Mexico, and enlarged Mexican interest…

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Macro Economic Buying at CBOT; Dry Finish Returns Midwest Yield Debate

Sep 5, 12:12 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** It has been a strong CBOT start of the week with an open chart gap of just .25 of a cent in November soybeans spurring on additional buying this AM. Funds have been active buyers of November soybeans and December corn as they cover net short positions. Wheat has come along for the ride. The CRB index has rallied sharply with crude oil up $1.50/barrel amid strong world demand amid the uncertainty of Hurricane Irma, which reached category 5 status this AM, with recorded winds being the 6th strongest on record. A strong close is expected today, but some profit taking heading into the close is expected based on the soon to start S Midwest harvest. ** FAS reported…

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Coasting Into Holiday Weekend With Limited Fresh News

Sep 1, 12:21 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** ARC will release our Weekend Summary this afternoon. We wish everyone a happy and safe Labor Day weekend!  ** Early fund selling in corn and a sideways trade in wheat/soybeans has been the theme at the CBOT this AM. The volume of trade has been better than expected in corn, but holiday reduced in soybeans and wheat.   There was good selling in early CBOT dealings, and then as the selling faded, the market has been able to recovery. ARC expects CBOT prices to close mixed heading into the long holiday weekend. In fact, the market may hold in a sideways mixed trade until greater clarity is offered via the September NASS Crop Report.  ** CBOT brokers report that…

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CBOT Recovers on Fund Short Covering and Stats Canada Data

Aug 31, 12:13 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Like clockwork, CBOT grain/soybean markets have posted a strong recovery overnight as producer liquidation of cash stocks and September futures ended .A push to new lows in December corn triggered fund short covering, and new buying. Through midday, December corn has traded more than a 9 cent range, with more than 190,000 contracts changing hands. November soybeans have also caught support and marked gains of more than 10 cents with volume exceeding 85,000 contracts. Our bet is just like last year that seasonal lows are being set. However, the veracity of a rally will depend on future harvest yield data and Chinese demand for US soybeans.   ** Stat Canada’s August crop report did not hold any bearish surprises,…

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Farmers forced out of DP/Basis contracts before Sept 1; Funds add Pressure at CBOT

Aug 30, 12:08 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Fund selling and a lack of fresh news continues to pressure CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures at midday. September corn has reached $3.30/Bu while December corn futures have fallen near $3.45. November soybeans are trying to test support at $9.30 while wheat is holding near unchanged. The market maintains a bearish feel with the charts technically oversold, but still heading lower. Bottom pickers have not been rewarded, and the market may have to get beyond 1st notice day to spark a recovery.  ** US elevators tell ARC that farmers are still existing stale DP and cash basis contracts in corn and soybeans. The selling from these elevators and ethanol groups should be completed by Thursday. A portion of…

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Markets Mixed; Egypt Buys Black Sea Wheat

Aug 29, 12:07 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Tuesday: 1/ No new advice. Mixed has been the morning in Chicago, with neither the bulls nor the bears having much excitement as summer draws to a close. Seasonally, it’s bottom picking time, but whether the wheat market especially can garner lasting support will in large part be a function of Russia’s interior market over the next 1-3 weeks. ARC does estimate managed funds’ position in Chicago wheat this AM at a net short 70,000 contracts, which prior to 2016 was rather large. Funds’ position in corn is pegged at net short 50,000 contracts, with funds net short an estimated 30,000. US exporters sold 226,000 MTs of corn to Mexico, and 198,000 MTs of…

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Cold Beyond September 10th; Grains Liquidate into 1st Notice Day Against September

Aug 28, 12:23 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Low volume and mixed has been the CBOT this AM with corn, soybean and wheat futures trading mixed with the grains under pressure while soybean futures hold close to unchanged. Liquidation continues in the grains while soybeans uncover fresh export demand on weakness. The volume of trade has been poor with few traders inspired to take on large new speculative risk. Traders generally expect that seasonal lows are forming in wheat, while the corn and soybean market continues to debate yield and US crop potential. Our advice is that this is no place to turn bearish. Producers are still shedding old crop corn stocks which is pushing CBOT prices to lower lows.  ** CBOT brokers estimates that funds have…

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Midday GFS Much Colder for early September; Canadian Frost Potential

Aug 25, 12:10 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Mixed and low volume has been the early CBOT trade with limited direction for price being offered. Corn continues to slide on fund selling, while wheat holds Thursday’s gain, and soybeans are caught in between. The volume of CBOT trade has been uninspiring and traders are watching the eventual track of Hurricane Harvey – and how it might impact mature row crops in LA, MS and AR.  Gulf State farmers are worried that heavy rains/strong winds cause lodging of crops with harvest underway. The track of Harvey and its resulting heavy rain will be key to soy price outlook early next week. LA, MS, and AR farmers fret that heavy rains could produce crop lodging and yield loss. Some…

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