All Members: Mid-day

USDA Raises World Stocks

Mar 9, 12:11 pm | Mid-day Commentary

The USDA’s March WASDE is viewed as bearish amid steady to higher US end stocks and higher corn, wheat and soybean world end stocks. Markets are midday are mostly weaker, with corn 2-4, CME wheat near unchanged and beans down 8-10. US corn end stocks were left unchanged, though minor balance sheet changes are noted. Ethanol’s demand draw was raised 50 Mil Bu to account for the pace of production to date, but this was offset completely by a reduction in feed use. The USDA cites higher sorghum feeding, and record ethanol production implies more DDGs will be available to the domestic market. Exports were left unchanged, very likely due to higher crop estimates in Argentina and Brazil. World corn…

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South American Crop Sizes Weigh; Farmers Slow Cash Sales

Mar 7, 11:15 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Big South American corn and soybean crops have been the focus of the CBOT in the normal 8:30 AM CST session with funds selling out a portion of their recent purchases. Soybeans paced the AM CBOT decline with corn/wheat in tow. Respected private Brazilian crop forecaster Celeres raised their soy crop estimate to 109.6 MMTs, up from 105 MMTs last month. And brokerage firm FC Stone concurred with an estimate of 109 MMTs crop. A Brazilian soy crop of 109 MMTs is 5 MMTs above the current WASDE estimate with ARC also arguing that the Argentine soybean crop could be as large as last year at 57 MMTs, up 1.5 MMTs from WASDE. South America corn crops are also…

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Mixed at Midday as Traders Look Ahead to WASDE

Mar 6, 12:08 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Mixed has been the CBOT morning with fund flows noted into soybeans, wheat and soymeal. The corn and oil market are seeing less fund demand and they have been able to set back/decline. There have been rumors of China securing US SRW wheat, but no cash confirmation is offered. The US dollar is rallying and crude oil is weaker. Much of the morning CBOT trade appears to be tied to the flows of funds. ARC would note that debate continues on why the Brazilian FOB cash export offer is at a discount to the US Gulf for late summer and early autumn if the Brazilian soy is really as large as 108-110 MMTs? The cash markets will have to…

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Sideways In Low Volume Pre Weekend Trade

Mar 3, 12:15 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Dull and slightly lower is the midday CBOT trade. Large South American crop sizes continue to cap rallies, but breaks can’t garner much downside momentum with the biofuel debate ongoing. Corn/soybean spreading has been featured as the trade fears record large 2017 US soybean seeding. Yet, with December corn just below $4.00 with the insurance price well above last year, we are finding producers that are considering some switching back to some corn – depending on spring weather conditions. Research suggests a US soybean seeding total above 89 Mil acres (USDA current at 88 Mil acres) will be arduous. Our bet is that     ** The USDA in their 2017/18 balance sheets last week forecast a 17/18 farmgate price…

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Lower without Conviction on South American Soy Sales

Mar 2, 11:47 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Lower & slower has been the AM CBOT trade as the dust settles around the US Bio Fuel rumors/discussions while South American cash connected selling increases as strong soy yields continue to be reported across C and S Brazil. ARC research suspects the CBOT is “exhaling” following the influx of new fund monies in recent days. The flow of fund buying has been much diminished this morning, but we note that weekly charts are much improved with potential reversals being formed which could pull in additional fund money into the grain space. The bears nor the bulls are ready to relent and standoff could ensue in the marketplace heading into the USDA Crop Report on March 9th.  ** The…

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Grain Markets Hold Firm Through Midweek

Mar 1, 11:43 am | Mid-day Commentary

**  It’s been a firm day of trade so far in the Chicago grain and oilseed markets. Emotions this morning have cooled from Tuesday’s highly charged day, but markets are holding firm. Some traders are wondering if where there is smoke, there might also be fire, which kept prices higher overnight, and trading ranges have expanded higher through the morning trade. May corn had early support against he 200 day moving average, while early hedge related selling in soybeans was absorbed by fund buying.      **  Commodity brokers this morning estimate that commodity fund traders have been net buyers this morning of 5,000 contracts of wheat, 8,500 contracts of corn, and 3,000 contracts of soybeans. In the soy product markets,…

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Grain Markets Jump On Biofuel Changes

Feb 28, 12:00 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** It’s been a turn around Tuesday at the CBOT, with an overnight short covering bounce turning into a strong rally at the morning open, in response to rumors of an impending executive order from the Trump Administration regarding the RFS mandate. The morning rally briefly had May soybean back over $10.50 and May corn back over $3.85, but corn, soybean, and wheat markets have backed off the early morning highs at midday.   ** A number of newswires, as well as the head of the Renewable Fuels Association said this morning that the Trump Administration is considering an executive order that would shift the point of obligation for ethanol blending away from the petroleum refiners. RIN prices turned lower on…

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Large Supplies Pressure CBOT into Noon Hour

Feb 27, 11:36 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Mostly lower has been the normal CBOT day trade with funds modest sellers of corn, soybeans and wheat. Funds are liquidating ahead of 1st notice day against March futures with US exporters reporting hints of slowing US ag grain and soy demand. US cash markets are filled with supply, with elevators reporting a need to move ground stored corn prior to spring. March corn is expected to test key technical support at $3.60, with March Chi wheat to target $4.10-4.15 and March soybeans at $9.95-10.00. World farmers are becoming more anxious sellers as world grain prices start to ease.  ** US weekly export inspections for the week ending February 23rd were; 57.4 Mil Bu of corn, 25.9 Mil Bu…

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Markets Remain Unimpressed by Outlook Forum; Export Sales Uneventful

Feb 24, 11:58 am | Mid-day Commentary

The USDA’s new crop balance sheets failed to spark any meaningful fund buying, and corn, wheat and soy futures are steady to lower at midday. Assuming trend yield, US end stocks will stay perched at lofty levels and price outlooks are little changed from 16/17, basis the USDA’s stocks/use data. Note that completed USDA balance will be included in tonight’s PM wire.  US weekly export sales through Feb 16th were mostly below expectations. Corn sales through the period totaled 29.3 Mil Bu, vs. guesses of 32-40 Mil (and vs. 34 Mil on this week a year ago). Bean sales totaled 15 Mil Bu, vs. 33 Mil a week ago and compared to expectations of 20-30 Mil. Wheat sales totaled 17…

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