All Members: Mid-day

Mixed Heading into the Weekend: Eye on More Rain

May 12, 12:18 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** “Boring/drab” best explains Friday’s CBOT trade with corn, soybeans and wheat trading either side of unchanged. Soy futures are slightly lower on the weakness in soymeal and on oil/meal spreading. There was a modest pick up in cash related soy selling from Argentina, but otherwise, Brazilian movement is slow. May CBOT futures expire today and everything is well liquidated. ARC notes that commercials continue to cancel deliverable CBOT soyoil receipts preparing for the enlarged demand that comes from pending US duties against Argentine/ Indonesian Biodiesel. Asian and European markets are closed, and unless there is a big change in the midday GFS weather forecast, ARC bets that CBOT values will go into the weekend mixed, and slightly lower on…

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Funds Force Their Case; Sell Corn/Soy To Protect Profits

May 11, 12:22 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** It has been another mixed morning at the CBOT with corn mostly lower, while wheat and soy trade either side of unchanged. Summer row crop weakness is related to the improved weather projected for Central Midwest this weekend and early next week (sunshine/warmth/dryness) which should help some of the hardest hit wet/flooded areas of Central IL, IN and N MO firm soils to allow for planting on their best drained land.   Whether the window to plant is long enough to get large amounts of corn seeded or reseeded or substantially advance soybean seeding is being debated? The weather forecast beyond the middle of next week looks wet, but through Sunday ARC research argues that 64-68% of the US…

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May WASDE Fails to Jolt the CBOT Out Of Its Range

May 10, 12:05 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** More sideways! The USDA May Crop Report was seen as positive with CBOT corn, soybeans and wheat slightly firmer at midday.  The report will not cause CBOT values to break out of their recent range until more is known about the Northern Hemisphere growing season and the resulting yield.  ** NASS estimated 2017 US all wheat production at 1,820 Mil Bu, down nearly 500 Mil Bu from last year. The decline is the largest year to year in a non drought year. The chart to the left reflects that NASS pegged the US winter wheat yield at 48.8 BPA, just above trend. In Kansas, the crop was pegged at 289.8 Mil Bu on a yield of 42 BPA, which…

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Soybeans Rise on Short Covering Ahead of USDA Report on Demand Trend

May 9, 12:24 pm | Mid-day Commentary

 ** Someday…… we in Chicago and the E Midwest will come to work without our winter coats! Showery/cold temps is limiting evaporation losses and continuing to yellow S and E Midwest corn. CBOT summer row crop futures rallied on the wet weather and potential for additional heavy rains in the 9-15 day period.  On the other hand, producers are quickly seeding crops in the W Midwest and the market is having trouble knowing what to focus on? Should a trader focus on the W Midwest planting speed or crops that are waterlogged in the E Midwest/ Delta? This is the struggle of the marketplace pre and post the USDA May crop report. Right now no one can bet on better than…

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CBOT Down at Midday on Improving W Midwest Weather

May 8, 12:15 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** It has been a morning of weakening CBOT prices with corn, soybeans and wheat all sliding in moderate volume. The USDA May report looms on Wednesday, but the big driver of price has been the improved weather pattern and advancement of seeding across the N Plains and the NW Midwest. Flooded areas of the E and S Midwest are still 5-8 days from getting back in the field to plant or replant spring crops. But, for today, it’s about the improved weather for the west that is pressuring prices.   ARC looks for weaker close with some short covering effort going home. A turnaround Tuesday is expected with rain in the Midwest forecast for the 10-15 day period. Traders…

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Midwest too Cool for Crop Growth/Seed Germination: ITC Vote on Biodiesel

May 5, 12:11 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** It’s been a mostly green morning at the CBOT as funds turn buyers and corn fully reverses yesterday’s losses. The volume of trade has been active and the entire commodity spectrum appears to have a more bullish mindset this AM.   China’s change in bank lending regulation has sparked sharp drops in crude oil, industrial metals which seemed to impact the CBOT on Thursday.   ARC notes that the world economy outside of China is in a more rapid growth phase and there is no evidence of deflationary price trends developing. China needs to be closely watched for slowing demand, but it’s important to point out that globally, GDP rates in improving.   A higher CBOT close is expected…

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Fund Selling Pushes CBOT Lower; Farmers Hold Fast To Cash

May 4, 12:24 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Following weaker crude oil and a drier W Midwest/Plains weather forecast, CBOT corn, soy and wheat futures are weaker in moderate volume at midday. Soybeans/soyoil have held up better than the grains as traders position for the Commerce Dept decision on whether Argentina/Indonesia are dumping biodiesel into the US? An affirmative finding could lead to a quick placement of a duty/tariff that some expect will be as large as 25%. A decision on the duty could come as early as Friday or sometime early next week.   The Central US weather pattern is becoming a west vs east. Heavy rains have really exacerbated flooding across the E Midwest while improved planting conditions have occurred across the W Midwest. ARC…

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CBOT Mostly Higher on Concerning Midwest Weather

May 3, 12:14 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** More questions than answers……How does NASS measure yield in the snow covered fields of W KS? How many corn acres will need to be replanted due to cold/wet weather? Can “OK” wheat production in E Kansas help offset some of the acute losses of the west? And how does one balance expanding seeding progress in the N Plains and W Midwest against the near historical flooding across MO, the southern half of IL, and IN?  Traders are asking for quantified loss estimates in terms of what recent cold/wet weather means for US grain production. However, no one will be able to respond for a few additional weeks with any confidence. Everyone can (and often can) guess at the impact…

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Corrective Tuesday as the CBOT Debates Lost Acres and Yield

May 2, 12:22 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** It has been a mixed morning at the CBOT on continued strong volume trade. The corn market has declined as some cite the chance for drier weather and planting progress across the N Plains and the NW Midwest later this week and weekend. The bulls continue to tout the millions of acres of drown out and need for replant of corn across the SE and SC Midwest. There are sizeable S Midwest acres that are underwater and due to cool/cloudy conditions, corn seedlings are under acute stress. The additional .5-3.00” of rain that is slated for the wettest areas is very unwanted and will lead to additional replant/abandonment.   December corn may decline to $3.80, but it’s difficult to…

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Massive Short Covering Featured at CME

May 1, 12:18 pm | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Monday: 1/ Corn Producers: Forward sell/hedge an estimated 30% of your estimated 2018 corn crop if Dec’18 corn futures reach $4.14. Sharply higher has been the morning in ag markets, with additional fund short covering noted at the 9:30 CDT open. KC wheat futures have led the way on a percentage basis (and also have continued its upward technical reversal), as the debate over crop lost to disease, frost and freeze ramps up. Snow cover is noted across SE CO, W KS and the OK panhandle, and until this melts uncertainty will remain with regards to updated production estimates. US winter wheat crop conditions this afternoon are expected to drop 1-3 points 51-53% GD/EX. The trade…

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