All Members: Mid-day

Lower/Slower at Midday Correcting Early Week Grain Recovery

Apr 6, 12:01 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** As expected, the drier Argentine and Central US weather forecasts have pressured CBOT futures into the midday hour. Also, the trade is afraid that meetings between Chinese President Xi and US President Trump will run into some sort of trade snags in Florida. The CBOT market tone is decidedly bearish on a fundamental basis and funds are piling into additional market short positions. ARC looks for a further expansion of fund short positions in the grains and that funds will be flat or net short in Friday’s CoT report.  ARC would also note that Tuesday, the WASDE/USDA will release their April Crop report which include updates following the results from the NASS March stocks data. The trade expects modest…

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CBOT Firm at Midday Awaiting New Weather Updates

Apr 5, 12:17 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** The CBOT morning trade has been firm, but few are willing to chase a rally until more is known about Argentine and Midwest wetness, and whether China’s soy buying will persist? The CBOT opened higher on short covering and new buying, but has backed off the highs in lackluster volume. ARC looks for a firm close, but with some trepidation awaiting fresh weather updates.  ** CBOT brokers report that funds have booked 1,200 contracts of wheat, 4,500 contracts of corn, and 3,100 contracts of soybeans. In soybean products, funds have bought 2,500 contracts of soyoil and 1,100 contracts of soymeal. The fund demand has slowed at midday.  ** The EIA reported that the US consumed 299.6 Mil Bu of…

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Markets Fade at Midday

Apr 4, 12:09 pm | Mid-day Commentary

CBOT futures are mostly lower, as post-USDA short covering seems to have run its course. However, markets have stabilized, and further meaningful downside risk hinges upon Northern Hemisphere growing conditions from now till August. FAS’s daily reporting system was void of any new export sales, and there’s an otherwise lack of any fresh breaking news. It has been reported that bird flu in China has affected six additional humans, with one new death, bringing the total to 162 since October. Dalian futures open on Wednesday, and meal and corn price action will be watched closely. Argentine corn basis continues to retreat, particularly in post-harvest positions. Fob premiums for Jun-Jul arrival now rest at $.18-.22/Bu, vs. Gulf corn basis of $.38-40,…

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Grains Rise on Weather; Soy Sags as China on holiday

Apr 3, 12:11 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** CBOT grain futures pace early CBOT rally while soybeans/meal trade either side of unchanged. The market is worried that early corn planting is not going to occur and that Midwest farmers will be anxious to accept prevent planting option as a means to greater farm profitability. Current corn and soybean prices reflect losses, and farmers desire to just sit back and farm the gov’t program if the wet Central US weather were to continue. This has the market adding weather premium back into price just in case. ARC looks for firm close in corn and wheat with soybeans to settle mixed.  ** NASS will release their 1st US winter wheat condition ratings this afternoon. The ratings are expected to…

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NASS Reports Neutral Grains; Bearish Soy Complex

Mar 31, 12:13 pm | Mid-day Commentary

NASS’s stocks and seedings data has come and gone, and the data is viewed as neutral corn, slightly bearish wheat and outright bearish soybeans. March 1 corn stocks were above expectations, but also imply the USDA’s total 16/17 corn consumption forecast is accurate. Wheat feed use remains disappointing, but major changes to the US balance are not expected. But in the case of soybeans, Dec-Feb residual was much lower than anticipated, and implied new crop stocks will be growing amid higher than expected planting intentions.   Corn stocks as of March 1 totaled 8,616 Mil Bu, which are record large, and up 794 Mil (10%) from last year. Total Sep-Feb disappearance is pegged at 8,295 Mil Bu, 57% of the…

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Markets Inactive in Morning Session; Still Moderately Weaker

Mar 30, 12:08 pm | Mid-day Commentary

Lower and slower is again the theme in Chicago as weekly export sales were unable to counter negative chart-based selling in soybeans, weaker international ag markets and favorable/benign world weather patterns. Even a further recovery in spot crude, which is up $.80/Barrel to $50.30 at midday, has not lent any support so far. The US dollar is stable at 100 points. EU milling wheat futures look to close down €.50-1.50/MT, having extended their overnight decline. US export sales through the week ending March 23rd included 28 Mil Bu of corn, vs. 53 Mil in the previous week; 25 Mil Bu of soybeans, vs. 22 Mil a week ago, 17 Mil Bu of wheat, up 2 Mil from a week ago;…

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CBOT Lower at Midday; Lacking Inspiration

Mar 29, 11:57 am | Mid-day Commentary

** Slightly lower/slower has been the morning with CBOT futures trading on both sides of unchanged. No one appears to have any real impetus to place new positions ahead of the USDA Stocks/Seeding report on Friday. Once the NASS report has passed, it’s weather for the new growing season which will determine world grain and soy price direction. For today it’s “slower and lower” with funds on the sell side of corn and soybean futures. The ongoing fear is that Friday’s report will reflect a record amount of US soybean plantings.  ** There continues to be rumors of South American corn sold into Mexico. Such sales are seasonally normal as competition heats up between South American suppliers and the US….

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CBOT A Drift at Midday

Mar 28, 12:04 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Mostly higher has been the CBOT this AM in thin volume. Short covering has been the theme of the day as traders start to trim positions heading into Friday’s USDA Stocks/Seeding report. Seasonal price trends are higher as a new growing season starts with world farmers not liking current prices and backing down on fresh cash sales. Large South American corn and soy crops have been discussed for several weeks, and are largely digested by the market. New fundamental impetus is needed for a lasting sustained trade. Our bet is that heading into the end of the quarter, fund managers will want to bank profits and take a portion of their short corn and wheat positions off the table….

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Lower Lacking Passion at Midday

Mar 27, 12:13 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Mostly lower has been CBOT grain futures this AM with soybeans/wheat posting new lows on continued fund selling. Soybeans and corn have traded both sides of unchanged with macro market pressure being felt as the USD declines and the US equity market posts sharp opening losses.   The US stock market and crude oil have clawed back to recapture most of the overnight loss. This has helped to offer some levity to CBOT grain futures.   ARC looks for continued back and forth CBOT trade without any real flat price passion. CBOT futures have declined sharply in recent weeks and holding a net short position into an unpredictable USDA report ahead of a new Northern Hemisphere growing season is…

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Chart-Based Selling Continues in Soy Complex

Mar 24, 12:08 pm | Mid-day Commentary

Wheat futures have held on to modest gains, while corn and soybeans have weakened through the morning hours. On the week, May corn is down 11 cents, wheat futures are down 10-25, and May beans are down 23. Open interest this week has risen 36,000 contracts in corn, 37,000 in Chicago wheat, and 25,000 in soybeans. New selling has emerged following rising South American crop estimates – with crop-critical weather now limited to safrinha corn in Brazil – and today as May soybeans have fallen below major technical support. FAS’s daily export sales reporting system is void of new business. AgResource does note that the markets will go into next week’s stocks and seeding data leaning quite bearish, which at…

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