All Members: Mid-day

Midday Commentary: Brazilian Real Strength Rallies Soy Complex

Mar 4, 12:15 pm | Mid-day Commentary

The potential for a major change in Brazilian politics is supporting the real, and thus weakening domestic soybean prices there. Slow farmer selling has supported at CBOT soy complex rally.

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USDA Failed to Spark any Excitement; CBOT Declining on Large US Stocks

Feb 26, 11:47 am | Mid-day Commentary

** The initial USDA 2016/17  US crop balance sheets failed to offer any market stimulus and the grind lower has restarted for CBOT corn, soybean and wheat values. Volume is rather subdued at midday and unlike prior years, the USDA Outlook Forum has failed to spark much of a market reaction. We suspect this is a sign of the times with record large South American harvests underway in Brazil and fresh/large US grain demand lacking. The charts show weekly reversal’s down in corn and soybeans with the wheat market to close at multi year lows.  ** WASDE forecast that combined 2016/17 US total major grain stocks (corn, wheat and soybeans) would be up 153 Mil Bu from the current crop…

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CBOT Slides as USDA Forecasts $3.45 2016 Cash Corn Price

Feb 25, 11:40 am | Mid-day Commentary

** CBOT Corn, soybean and wheat futures turned lower following what was seen as supportive USDA 2016 Seeding Estimates. The market choose not to focus on the suggested 2016 US seeding forecast, but the WASDE 2016 price forecasts. WASDE called for a season cash average price of; $4.20 in wheat (down $.80/Bu), $3.45 corn (down $.15), and $8.50 in soybeans (down $.30/Bu from last year). These prices are all well down from last year with US 2016 farm income expected to decline for the 3rd year in a row. This is the first time that US Farm Income has declined for 3 consecutive years.  ** USDA also projected diminished livestock receipts with US pork production record large at 25 Bil…

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Wheat Slides to new 6 Year lows, but Financial Markets Bouncing

Feb 24, 12:04 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** Financial market weakness and hefty fund selling in Chicago wheat has pressured CBOT grain/soy futures this AM. Chicago wheat has fallen to $4.38, the lowest price in 6 years with huge put buying noted in April Chi wheat options. Corn/soybeans have followed in sympathy, but have shown some independence with end user pricing noted on the weakness. ARC expects that financial market stability will offer some short covering going home with crude oil prices trying to rally of $30.00 support.  ** The USDA are expected release their 2016 US seeding estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat with Chief Economist Johansson’s outlook for the US 2016 Farm Economy at around 7:10 AM CST Thursday morning. The report will offer a…

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Early Day CBOT Selling Uncovers Midday End User Support

Feb 23, 12:23 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** CBOT wheat has pushed to new lows contract lows while the summer row crops are dragged lower amid elevated fund selling. Monday’s March CBOT put option abandonment is no longer being discussed and futures are reflecting the new talk of larger South American soy/corn crops. The weakness in crude oil is also causing some selling at the CBOT from a macro perspective. The CBOT feel is bearish and a lower close is expected.  ** Part of the decline in the CBOT is due to fund selling as the market was unable to score or build new highs above the recent range. The inability of the funds to garner any upside traction off of Monday’s rally has produced stronger fund…

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