All Members: Morning

Major Forecast Models Warmer into August; Rains for N Midwest next 48 Hours

Jul 19, 6:55 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 5.0 cents at $10.0675, Dec corn is up 6.0 cents at $3.965 with Sept Chi wheat up 2.00 cents at $5.0525.  ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! After a mixed to lower start, CBOT futures have recovered with corn, soy and wheat posting moderate gains this AM. The volume of overnight trade has been below those of recent nights as just over 25,000 contracts of Dec corn, just over 20,000 contracts of Nov soybeans, and 10,000 contracts of Sept Chi wheat have changed hands.   Traders are grumbling about the US GFS poor performance of the US weather model and its often large disparity with its more…

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Cattle Called Steady/Firm To Start Week; Heat Wave Warming and More Rain Needed

Jul 17, 7:04 am | Morning Commentary

** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures marked good gains last week on better than expected cash business, and a steady outlook is offered for early trade at the start of the week.   Cash cattle trade last week got underway at midweek with cattle trading around $120, or $2-3 better for the week. While cattle prices moved higher, the beef market continued to drop, putting a further squeeze on packer margins. At week’s end, the choice cutout value was down $9.49 and the select value was $7.09 lower. Estimated slaughter margins slipped to a 10 week low of $141/head – but are still more than $20 higher than a year ago and a record for mid-July. The seasonal outlook…

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Not Enough Rain for Plains and W Midwest for CBOT To Relax; Heat Later this Week

Jul 17, 7:00 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 1.00 cent at $10.0025, Dec corn is down 3.00 cents at $3.865 with Sept Chi wheat down 2.50 cents at $5.0825.  ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Compared to recent weeks, it has been a rather tame start in active volume. CBOT corn, soybean and wheat futures are slightly lower with traders debating the Central US weather, and its impact on US corn, soybean and spring wheat yield.   Over 34,000 contracts of Dec corn, 26,000 contracts of November soybeans, and 16,000 contracts Chi wheat have changed hands as of this writing.   On Friday, CBOT open interest declined 720 contracts in corn, 499 contracts in soybeans,…

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Central US Forecast Turns Warm to Hot under High Pressure Ridge; Adding Back Weather Premium

Jul 14, 7:07 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 9.00 cents at $9.965, Dec corn is up 5.50 cents at $3.885 with Sept Chi wheat up 5.00 cents at $5.1675.  ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT trade has been mixed in another session of rather active volume. Lower prices were featured at the start of trading based on Thursday’s sharp price fall with a recovery noted once the major weather forecasting models released their updates. December corn has traded more than 28,000 contracts with over 29,000 contracts of November soybeans and 11,000 contracts of Sept Chi wheat changing hands. The markets remain volatile amid changing weather forecasts.    Thursday’s CBOT open interest data…

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Gut Check Day For Weather Bulls; Not Enough Rain in the West, but Cooler

Jul 13, 6:49 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 20.00 cents at $10.14, Dec corn is down 4.50 cents at $3.9425 with Sept Chi wheat down 6.00 cents at $5.47.  ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! CBOT futures have been pressured all night long amid the bearish aspects of the July USDA grain data and the cooler Central US weather forecast for next week. The CBOT has risen sharply since the June Stocks/Seeding report as funds liquidated their large net short corn/soy positions. The market was ready for a correction.  Soybean futures have fallen back into a gap on the daily and even the weekly charts with spot futures to find support under $10.00, while December…

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Awaiting the USDA July Crop Report and Late July Weather Forecast

Jul 12, 6:59 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 10.00 cents at $10.3325, Dec corn is down 5.25 cents at $4.09 with Sept Chi wheat down 6.0 cents at $5.47.  ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT trading session has been slightly lower as the market awaits the July USDA Crop Report with there being little change in the overnight weather forecast.   Additional rain has fallen across the Lake States with new moisture for WI, MI and N IL and N IN received overnight. Traders will be heading to downtown Chicago with wet shoes amid the new rains.   However, the rain chances in the N Plains and the W Midwest look rather…

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US Central Weather Pattern Unchanged; CBOT Correction Ahead of the Crop Report!

Jul 11, 6:55 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 10.00 cents at $10.20, Dec corn is down 6.25 cents at $4.085 with Sept Chi wheat down 5.0 cents at $5.45.  ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! CBOT futures opened mostly higher overnight following the decline in US crop condition ratings, but fell on the localized rain that fell across C IL and SW IA in the past 12 hours. Drought by definition does not imply that it never rains again, but it is a pattern of below normal rain that exists over an extended period of time.   The C IL and SW IA rains ranged from .5-2.00” and were localized. Unfortunately, the forecast does not…

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CBOT Adds Additional Weather Premium On Concerning Central US Forecast

Jul 10, 7:03 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: November soybeans are up 20.25 cents at $10.3575, Dec corn is up 8.25 cents at $4.13 with Sept Chi wheat up 16.0 cents at $5.51.   ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The week has started out sharply higher with CBOT corn and soybeans pushing to new rally highs. The market continues to add weather premium to price as the dire drought across the N Plains spreads south and east over the next 2 weeks. The big question that traders are ponding is whether this expansion of acutely dry areas will continue into early August?   Historically, once a Central US weather pattern is established in June and lasts into mid…

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CBOT Adds Weather Premium Ahead of the Weekend; Not Enough Rainfall

Jul 7, 7:23 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: November soybeans are up 3.00 cents at $10.025, Dec corn is up 3.25 cents at $4.06 with Sept Chi wheat unchanged at $5.40.    ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT trade has been mixed in rather normal volume as traders access the Central US weather forecast while the wheat market pushes into a 2 day correction as the bulls accept profits heading into the weekend.   Thursday’s CBOT open interest tallies featured a 12,906 contract decline in corn, while soybeans increased 4,369 contracts and Chicago wheat 8,054 contracts. The gain in Chicago wheat open interest was a surprise and could be related to end users taking forward coverage?…

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