All Members: Morning

Grains Steady; Beans Lower on Weaker Brazilian Basis

Mar 23, 7:12 am | Morning Commentary

6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are down 4.25 cents at $9.955, May corn is down 0.75 cents at $3.58 while May Chi wheat is up 0.25 cents at $4.225.   Good Morning! Ag markets are again mostly weaker ahead of this morning’s export sales report, though ARC expects an intermediate bottom is close at hand in grain values. Brazil’s meat scandal seems to be getting worse, not better, and a host of countries have joined China in suspending meat imports from Brazil. The US meat market looks to benefit from this and cattle’s rally is expected to continue. We’ve also highlighted this week how Gulf wheat has become – by far – the world’s cheapest origin for Apr-May.   Outside…

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Ag Markets Lower on Weak Macros, South American Cash Prices

Mar 22, 7:10 am | Morning Commentary

6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are down 1.5 cents at $10.00, May corn is down 0.25 cents at $3.61 while May Chi wheat is down 2.25 cents at $4.2425.   Good Morning! Ag markets continue to leak lower on US and South American weather patterns, a lack of support from macro markets and falling cash premiums in Brazil and Argentina. Argentina’s harvest is now ongoing, basis there is falling, and the primary issue between now and summer is additional changes in global corn/soy trade matrixes.   Crude is down another $.60/barrel as this AM’s EIA data is expected to reveal a build in stocks, the US dollar is slightly higher, and DOW futures point toward a slightly weaker opening for…

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No Turnaround Tuesday Yet; S American Cash Markets Slightly Weaker

Mar 21, 7:17 am | Morning Commentary

6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are down 1.75 cents at $9.9775, May corn is down 1.25 cents at $3.6225 while May Chi wheat is down 2.0 cents at $4.2825.   Good Morning! There’s no evidence of any Turnaround Tuesday just yet, but ARC anticipates a more mixed session throughout the day. World weather forecasts are generally favorable, and are still wet across the Western Plains into early April, and South American fob premiums are slightly weaker.   Brazilian soybean offers are now aligned with Gulf offers for May-June, and Argentina soybean fob basis is negative. Argentine cash corn prices have fallen slightly for spot arrival, and while there does still exist a small window of for elevated US export demand,…

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Markets Rally on Lack of Hedge Pressure; News Lacking

Mar 20, 7:08 am | Morning Commentary

6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are up 5.75 cents at $10.0575, May corn is up 1.75 cents at $3.6925 while May Chi wheat is up 3.0 cents at $4.3925.   Good Morning! It’s been a modestly positive start to the week amid a the lack any hedge pressure Sunday evening, and with funds unwilling to ramp up selling following last week’s CFTC commitment of traders data. Selling through the first part of last week was much more significant than expected, and speculators are again short corn, and very short Chicago wheat.   International ag markets are mixed but mostly weaker. Dalian corn futures in China rallied 24 yuan/MT overnight, with soy futures there ending 6 yuan higher. Palm oil futures…

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Markets Lack Excitement, News at Week’s End

Mar 17, 7:11 am | Morning Commentary

6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are up 1.25 cents at $10.03, May corn is down 0.25 cents at $3.6575 while May Chi wheat is down 0.25 cents at $4.3575.   Good Morning! Markets are mixed but largely unexciting. Fresh news is rather thin, and the US & EU wheat markets have so far failed to react to Turkey’s more or less ban on Russian wheat imports moving forward. Crude is up $.30/barrel, the US dollar is slightly higher. On the week, May corn has rallied a penny, Chicago wheat is down 5 cents, with May beans up 4.   International ag markets are similarly boring. Malaysian palm oil futures overnight settled a modest 9 ringgits higher. Dalian corn futures in…

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Markets Enjoy Post-Fed Bounce

Mar 16, 7:07 am | Morning Commentary

6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are up 7.0 cents at $10.05, May corn is up 2.25 cents at $3.6575 while May Chi wheat is up 1.75 cents at $4.3775.   Good Morning! Markets are higher again following a session almost identical to Tuesday night. The primary feature this AM is the US dollar’s negative reaction to the Fed’s rate hike Wednesday afternoon, and this buy the rumor sell the fact trade has triggered a modest boost in raw material values. The US dollar is unchanged at the moment, but fell a full 1.2% yesterday. Crude is up another $.40/barrel, gold is up $22, and commodity indexes have stabilized.   Otherwise, FAS’s export sales report this AM is unlikely to have…

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Markets Bounce on Tech Support, Ahead of Demand News

Mar 15, 7:21 am | Morning Commentary

6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are up 5.5 cents at $10.045, May corn is up 1.75 cents at $3.64 while May Chi wheat is down 5.5 cents at $4.36. Good Morning! Markets are higher this AM, having found support at key technical levels overnight and the next two days will be marked by demand news, rather than a flood of bearish supply updates. A lasting rally is not expected as South American crop estimates continue to inch higher, and now analysis is increasingly pointing towards modest upward revisions in Argentina, but the market into Thursday will get updates on US and world export demand, ethanol production, with NOPA member crush due at mid-morning.   Egypt is seeking optional origin wheat…

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CBOT Remains in Retreat on Falling Asian Palm/Soy and Corn Values

Mar 10, 6:57 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are down 5.50 cents at $10.055,   May corn is down 1.50 cents at $3.6525 while May Chi wheat is down  1.00 cent at $4.43. ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Lead by soybeans, CBOT grain values have edged lower overnight in keeping with the trend of recent days. A brief short covering rally ensued at the CBOT opening, but Chinese traders were sellers on the weakness as Malaysian palmoil futures and Dalian corn/soymeal values fell to sharp losses overnight.   Friday’s are trend days and CBOT charts have rolled over to the downside this week. But, ARC would point out that CBOT soybeans/soyoil are technically oversold and an attempt…

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