All Members: Weekend Commodity Wrap-Up

Weekend Commodity Update

Oct 21, 2:51 am | Weekend Commodity Wrap-Up

Commodity Index Commodity indexes finished slightly lower on the week, but did not take out the prior weekly low, keeping a bullish outlook alive. Crude oil prices continue to be supported by declining supplies and strong world demand. However, the late week rally in the US dollar offered resistance to commodity prices and the CCI/CRB Index declined. ARC maintains that higher prices lie ahead into the 4th quarter with funds likely to position long commodities with the spread between stock valuations and the commodities at a record high. One has to be careful about being too bearish commodities in the weeks ahead. ARC doubts that a US dollar rally can be sustained with US Tax legislation likely to encounter more…

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Weekend Commodity Wrap Up

Oct 14, 11:28 am | Weekend Commodity Wrap-Up

Commodity Index    The CRB Index closed higher on the week and broke out of the topside of the recent range. It will be key that the rally carry through next week with the immediate upside price target of $425-425.6O. The US dollar fell with US tax legislation unlikely to gain much traction heading into the end of the year.     The world economic outlook is  brightening at the same time that the US economy lacks a needed fiscal push. ARC would comment that China indicated that it will pay for its crude oil in yuan or gold, and not in US dollars. Many see this as a move for a further appreciation of that yuan and a continued debasing…

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Weekend Commodity Wrap Up

Sep 16, 8:53 am | Weekend Commodity Wrap-Up

Commodity Index The CCI/CRB index closed the week slightly lower, but was able to hold an open chart gap. Note that the CRB index gapped higher last week with a push above last week’s high to confirm a more bullish commodity outlook. Chart wise, the index is in its most bullish technical configuration since January 2015. Index and managed fund managers are taking note of the more bullish condition of the general raw material market. With US equities at record highs, they are looking for diversification.   The US dollar closed the week slightly higher, still in a bearish trend. However, the USD is trying to forge a bottom. A close below 91.00 in the USD index is needed to…

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Weekend Commodity Wrap Up

Aug 19, 9:28 am | Weekend Commodity Wrap-Up

Commodity Index The CRB/CCI index declined and confirmed a more bearish technical profile as prior week lows were exceeded. In fact, the drop below the July low argues for a retest of the June bottom when spot crude oil futures tested $40.00 support. ARC doubts that crude on this break can fall too far under $45.00 on declining US stocks and a seasonal rise in demand. However, the ag markets, including livestock, are in a bearish position with the US dollar rising.   The post August USDA crop report reaction has been bearish, but local field surveys argue for yields that are far different. The market always accepts the USDA data at face value, but some of the best trades…

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