Analysis: Cattle

August WASDE Livestock Price Forecasts

Aug 14, 4:11 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The August WASDE report featured modest updates to the beef production and cattle price forecasts for the 1st quarter of 2018. Production was lowered by 220 Mil Lbs from the July forecast and projected at 6,325 Mil Lbs, but if realized would be the largest 1st quarter production rate since 2011. The USDA also lowered their price forecast range by $3, to $112-122 with a midpoint of $117. The chart plots the history of the midpoint of the August WASDE’s 1st quarter price forecast and actual prices. Note in the chart that the CME today is far more bearish on the 1st quarter than the USDA. CME Feb/Apr cattle futures with a normal basis, is offering cattle feeders the opportunity…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

US Red Meat Trade In June

Aug 7, 2:12 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

Friday’s International Trade Report showed US pork exports for the month of June at 449 Mil Lbs, a 66 Mil Lbs decline from May but still 18 Mil Lbs more than a year ago. It was the largest June export total since 2008 and the 2nd largest on record, with strong year over year increases noted to most major destinations. Exports to China have so far been disappointing, as this was the market that many in trade had hoped would be a source of major export growth this year. Canadian imports are down slightly amid growth in the Canadian herd.  At mid year, the US has exported 2.9 Bil Lbs, a 12% increase over last year and 50% of the…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

July Cattle on Feed

Jul 21, 4:46 pm | Cattle

The July cattle on feed report is viewed as bearish relative to expectations, on much larger than expected placements. July 1st cattle on feed were reported at 104% of a year ago versus expectations of 103%, or a difference of about 165,000 head. The larger on feed figure is expected to have CME cattle futures under pressure at Monday’s open, despite Friday afternoon strength in cash cattle trade.   Feeder cattle placements in June were at 116% of a year ago, versus the average estimate that called for a placement rate of 106%. Feedlots placed 1.77 million feeder cattle in the month, which was the largest June placement figure since 2006. Placements were up in all of the major cattle…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

July WASDE Livestock Price Forecasts

Jul 20, 2:44 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The July WASDE report featured pork production and price forecasts adjusted to the the June inventory data for the remainder of 2017 and through the 1st half of 2018. Minimal adjustments to quarterly production forecasts were made, with a slight increase for the 4th quarter, while the 1st quarter of 2018 was barely lowered. But production in both quarter are projected to be record large. The Oct-Dec average live hog price forecast was unchanged at $41-45, and th 1st quarter forecast was increased by $3 to $48-52. The chart plots the July WASDE 1st quarter forecast against actual prices. CME Feb/Apr hog futures adjusted to a live equivalent, with normal basis are pricing in a 1st quarter average live price…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

3rd Quarter Cattle Price Outlook

Jun 28, 4:27 pm | Cattle

The recovery that occurred in cash cattle prices from last October’s low of $98, to the spring high of $145 was a record. The rally lasted far longer and went far higher than even the most bullish analysts had anticipated. But sadly, last week’s near $9 break in the 5 Area steer price took out several layers of support, and looks to be confirming a seasonal top, and early sales this week have been a couple dollars lower. The market’s focus now is on pricing in a seasonal summer low. Based on increased feeder cattle supplies and larger on feed totals, the CME is pricing in a further decline through the summer, with even lower prices offered today for the…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

June 1 Cattle on Feed

Jun 23, 4:26 pm | Cattle

The June Cattle on Feed report is viewed as neutral to slightly bearish relative to expectations. NASS reported a May placement figure of 112% of last year versus expectations of 110%, while the marketing rate of 109% was right at expectations. The combined figures resulted in a 98,000 head increase in cattle and put June 1 on feed supplies at 103% of a year ago versus the average trade estimate that called for 102%.     NASS reported that 2.2 million head of feeder cattle were moved from pasture to feedlot during the month of May, which was the largest May placement rate in the last 12 years. Placements increased in almost every state, with the largest increase noted in…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Cattle To Start Firm, US Weather Models Turn Drier

Jun 6, 8:56 am | AM Weather, Cattle, Weather

** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed higher on Monday and a steady start is expected this morning. June was able to build on last week’s strength and gained more than $1 on Monday, while the rest of the cattle market closed out the day with more modest gains. August cattle finished near the high of the day, but was unable to test the contract high set back in early May. Feeder futures gained on fats and were more than $1 higher through November, while 2018 contracts were $3+ higher. The cash index gained $2.51 to $152.31.      Beef cutout values started the week higher Monday morning, and were sharply higher in the afternoon. The choice cutout value…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

May WASDE Livestock Price Forecast

May 17, 1:54 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

In the May WASDE report, the USDA increased their projection for average hog prices in the 3 remaining quarters by $1 each. Live hog prices in the last 3 months of the year are projected to average in a range of $36-40, or close to the 2016 average of $37. Historically, the accuracy of the USDA’s May price forecast has varied greatly, with a very slight tendency to over estimate price. Since 1989, the May WASDE has overestimated price in 15 years (56%) by an average of $5.70, and underestimated price in 12 years by an average of $4.90. The CME this week is suggesting that the USDA forecast is more than $10 too low (on a live equivalent basis)….

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Red Meat Exports in March

May 5, 2:28 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The May International Trade Report showed a significant jump in US pork exports during the month of March. Exports of 524 Mil Lbs was a 16% increase over both last month and the previous year, and was also the single largest monthly export figure on record. Exports in the 1st quarter total 1,432 Mil Lbs, a 17% year over year increase and the largest 1st quarter export rate on record. The chart shows the USDA’s annual export forecast that calls for an 8% increase over 2016. Despite strong start to the year, the current pace is on track to meet the USDA’s forecast, while the latest weekly trade data shows a seasonally slower export rate through the month April. Based…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

4th Quarter US Meat Supplies

Apr 19, 1:12 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

  The USDA’s Economic Research Service on Monday offered the latest updates on estimates to 4th quarter. The USDA estimated per capita beef disappearance in the 4th quarter at 13.8 Lbs, 0.2 Lbs under both the March estimate and 2016. Net beef exports are expected to be positive, and up slightly from a year ago, while quarterly production is expected to increase less than 1% from 2016. The piece of the per capita equation is the US population, which has increased by an average of 0.8%, which this year implies an additional 2.5 million people. In the pork estimates, the USDA looks for production to be up 6% and record large, while exports estimated to be increase 7%, also to a…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In