Analysis: Cattle

June 1 Cattle on Feed

Jun 23, 4:26 pm | Cattle

The June Cattle on Feed report is viewed as neutral to slightly bearish relative to expectations. NASS reported a May placement figure of 112% of last year versus expectations of 110%, while the marketing rate of 109% was right at expectations. The combined figures resulted in a 98,000 head increase in cattle and put June 1 on feed supplies at 103% of a year ago versus the average trade estimate that called for 102%.     NASS reported that 2.2 million head of feeder cattle were moved from pasture to feedlot during the month of May, which was the largest May placement rate in the last 12 years. Placements increased in almost every state, with the largest increase noted in…

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Cattle To Start Firm, US Weather Models Turn Drier

Jun 6, 8:56 am | AM Weather, Cattle, Weather

** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed higher on Monday and a steady start is expected this morning. June was able to build on last week’s strength and gained more than $1 on Monday, while the rest of the cattle market closed out the day with more modest gains. August cattle finished near the high of the day, but was unable to test the contract high set back in early May. Feeder futures gained on fats and were more than $1 higher through November, while 2018 contracts were $3+ higher. The cash index gained $2.51 to $152.31.      Beef cutout values started the week higher Monday morning, and were sharply higher in the afternoon. The choice cutout value…

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May WASDE Livestock Price Forecast

May 17, 1:54 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

In the May WASDE report, the USDA increased their projection for average hog prices in the 3 remaining quarters by $1 each. Live hog prices in the last 3 months of the year are projected to average in a range of $36-40, or close to the 2016 average of $37. Historically, the accuracy of the USDA’s May price forecast has varied greatly, with a very slight tendency to over estimate price. Since 1989, the May WASDE has overestimated price in 15 years (56%) by an average of $5.70, and underestimated price in 12 years by an average of $4.90. The CME this week is suggesting that the USDA forecast is more than $10 too low (on a live equivalent basis)….

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Red Meat Exports in March

May 5, 2:28 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The May International Trade Report showed a significant jump in US pork exports during the month of March. Exports of 524 Mil Lbs was a 16% increase over both last month and the previous year, and was also the single largest monthly export figure on record. Exports in the 1st quarter total 1,432 Mil Lbs, a 17% year over year increase and the largest 1st quarter export rate on record. The chart shows the USDA’s annual export forecast that calls for an 8% increase over 2016. Despite strong start to the year, the current pace is on track to meet the USDA’s forecast, while the latest weekly trade data shows a seasonally slower export rate through the month April. Based…

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4th Quarter US Meat Supplies

Apr 19, 1:12 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

  The USDA’s Economic Research Service on Monday offered the latest updates on estimates to 4th quarter. The USDA estimated per capita beef disappearance in the 4th quarter at 13.8 Lbs, 0.2 Lbs under both the March estimate and 2016. Net beef exports are expected to be positive, and up slightly from a year ago, while quarterly production is expected to increase less than 1% from 2016. The piece of the per capita equation is the US population, which has increased by an average of 0.8%, which this year implies an additional 2.5 million people. In the pork estimates, the USDA looks for production to be up 6% and record large, while exports estimated to be increase 7%, also to a…

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April WASDE Livestock Price Forecasts

Apr 12, 3:08 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The USDA’s April pork estimates were adjusted to reflect the data reported in the March quarterly inventory report, though production changes from March were minimal. Producers reported that they intend to keep summer farrowings similar to a year ago, with Jun-Aug intentions coming in at 99.6% of last year’s actual farrowings. Excluding the 2014 PEDs outbreak, producers have consistently increased pigs/per litter through the summer quarter by 1-2% each year.With the latest farrowing intentions data in hand, USDA analyst increased their 4th quarter pork production forecast by 45 Mil Lbs (less than 1%), to a record large 7,015 Mil Lbs. The USDA’s 4th quarter average hog price forecast was unchanged at $36-38 live ($49-51 lean), and if realized, would be a $12 year…

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Quarterly Cattle and Beef Outlooks

Mar 29, 11:45 am | Cattle

The USDA’s March beef production forecast, was down slightly from February for the 2nd quarter, while the 3rd quarter estimate was increased slightly. However, the latest estimates still project a significant increase in production for the middle quarters in 2017. Apr-Jun beef production is pegged at 6.6 Bil Lbs, a 7% increase over last year and would be the largest amount of beef produced since 2008. Jul-Aug beef output is estimated to increase 4% over last year to 6.7 Bil Lbs or the largest quarterly figure in 6 years. After falling sharply in 2014 and again in 2015, the large increase in 2016 was a major paradigm shift for the beef and cattle markets, that produced a painful bearish trend…

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March Cattle on Feed Report

Mar 24, 4:06 pm | Cattle

The March cattle on Feed report was as uneventful as last month and viewed as neutral for cattle futures on Monday. The place rate in February was just barely under last year, but right at expectations. Fed cattle marketed were a little bit better than expected and above last year, while the cattle on feed total was unchanged from last year and right at expectations.           NASS reported that there were 1.7 million head of cattle that moved off pasture and into feedyards during the month of February. The monthly placement figure was slightly less than a year ago, but still right at expectations. In the major cattle feeding states, placements were up by 30,000 head in…

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US Livestock Herd Update

Mar 14, 10:39 am | Cattle, Hogs & Pork, Poultry

NASS is in the process of collecting and tabulating pork producer surveys for the March inventory report that will be released at the end of the month. The December Hogs and Pigs report showed that the US hog breeding herd had grown by 1.5% from the previous year, and was the largest since 2007. Producers also indicated to the USDA that they intended to farrow 1% more sows in both the Dec-Feb and Mar-May quarters. Both the inventory data and producer intentions ran opposite of the economic signal that the market has been sending since the spring of 2016, which was “slow down”. The latest slaughter data indicates that producers may finally be paring back sow inventories, slightly. The weekly…

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March WASDE Livestock Price Forecasts

Mar 10, 3:13 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The March WASDE report featured adjustments to price and production forecasts for the 1st half of the year, while forecasts beyond June were unchanged from the prior report. The USDA estimates that the record large production will continue into the 3rd quarter, Jul-Sep pork output estimated to increase 5% year over year. In the price outlook, the USDA estimates a 3rd quarter average live hog price of $43-47 versus $49 last year. If realized, this would put the quarterly average at the lowest in 8 years. The CME and the USDA have been in sharp disagreement of forward hog values for many months, with deferred hog futures finding support from nearby cash strength. The CME today looks to be pricing in a…

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