Analysis: Corn

Corn Unwilling to Move; Soaking Rain Demanded in Brazil

May 14, 4:57 pm | Corn

corn 4-14CBOT corn futures settled unchanged as the market digests a host of mixed input. Corn seeding progress as of Sunday reached 62% complete, right at the 5 year average.

  Regional rainfall is probable in far southern and western Brazil later this week, but ARC’s work suggests further cuts to production lies ahead. Both the bulls & bears will compete for leverage in a range of $3.90-4.10 July.

 Planting progress has surged in IL, IN, IA, MO and OH in recent weeks, but concern is mounting with respect to acreage shifts in the far North Central Midwest. Progress as of mid-May in MN, SD and WI is at attached, and unfortunately pattern of rain is forecast there into the weekend.  

  Weekly US export inspections through last Thursday totaled a sizable 61 Mil Bu, some 10 Mil above what’s needed to hit the USDA’s target. And Brazilian cash prices remain well above quoted fob offers amid deepening drought and steady weakness in currency there.    

  As such, downside risk below $3.90, July appears limited. We await clarification on the Midwest summer weather before making new sales.