Analysis: Hogs & Pork

Hogs Turn Down After Marking New Contract Highs

May 24, 5:08 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hogs were higher at the open and pushed to new highs in early trade, but the rally to new highs found limited follow through demand, and futures sold lower in the last half of the day. June finished a nickel higher and the rest of the market was lower at the close. The hog index was up a nickel at $75.94 and projected $.14 higher for Thursday. The pork cutout was $.44 lower in the afternoon.     Estimated packer margins have improved over last week, with the pork cutout/lean hog index spread at $14, up $2.50 from a week ago and nearly $9 over a year ago. Despite strong margins the weekend kill will be light due to the holiday….

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Hogs Close Firm At The End Of Tuesday Trading

May 23, 4:43 pm | Hogs & Pork

It was a mixed day of trading in the hog market that left futures unchanged or higher. June marked the strongest gain and closed over $80 for the first time, and stopped just short of the contract high reached back in October. July was down a tick for the day while the rest of the market closed just above unchanged. The hog index was up $.34 at $75.89, and projected a nickel higher for Wednesday. Momentum in the cash market is trailing quickly trailing off.   The pork cutout value was at $90.30 on Tuesday, up $1.59 from Monday and more than $3 higher for the week. With the calendar bearing down on the summer BBQ season, the pork rib…

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Hogs End Lightly Mixed In Early Week Trade

May 22, 2:54 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hog futures traded and closed mixed at the start of the week, with June and July ending slightly lower, while the rest of the market was above unchanged at the close. July scored a new contract high, but gave back gains on selling just ahead of the close. The hog index was up $.63 at $75.55 and projected $.33 higher for Tuesday. However, the cash market is expected to trade lower this week on reduced demand. This week load lineup had 2% fewer hogs scheduled, but there were no loads for Saturday delivery as plants close for the Memorial Day weekend.      NASS reported total end of month April pork stocks at 599 Mil Lbs, 109% of March, but…

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Hogs Extend Weekly Gains Ahead of The Weekend

May 19, 3:43 pm | Hogs & Pork

An early break in the hog market again found good demand that carried hogs higher into the close on Friday. July again marked the best gain for the day, settled at a new contract high, and was above $80. The hog index was up $.78 at $74.92 and projected $.63 higher for Monday. A year ago, the index was at $78, and gained another $7 for a summer top at $85 at the end of June.   Hog slaughter this week was counted at 2.249 Mil head, and the lowest non holiday week slaughter of the year. Kill rates peaked in January and have been trending lower since, but also holding well over last year. Cumulative slaughter for the year…

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Hogs End Firm, Well Over Early Morning Lows

May 18, 3:51 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hogs were under pressure at the open and traded down through the first hour. However, a recovery effort was underway after the first hour, and futures traded up into late in the day. At the close, June through August were just above unchanged, and all hog contracts were well over the early morning lows. The hog index gained $1.13 to $74.14 and projected $.78 higher for Friday. Packers reported just 53,693 head scheduled for Saturday delivery, but were not bidding for extra loads ahead of the weekend. Negotiated trade was quoted $.81 lower on lighter volume.       Weekly pork exports were slightly above average while net sales remain slower, compared to earlier in the year. A slower sales trend…

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Hogs Mark New Highs, Close Mixed

May 17, 4:07 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hogs were higher to start the morning, but quiet back and forth trading through the day led to liquidation ahead of the close. June finished just above unchanged and other hog contracts closed the day mixed. The hog index gained $1.07 to $73.01 and is projected $1.13 higher for Thursday.  The pork cutout was $2.50 higher in the morning pork report and up $2.18 higher in the afternoon at $87.26. Wednesday’s strength came from higher loin and ham prices, while the belly value was down for the day. However, the belly value is still up for the week and $29 over the low scored in late April. Monthly belly stocks have been record low since November, and the last Cold…

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May WASDE Livestock Price Forecast

May 17, 1:54 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

In the May WASDE report, the USDA increased their projection for average hog prices in the 3 remaining quarters by $1 each. Live hog prices in the last 3 months of the year are projected to average in a range of $36-40, or close to the 2016 average of $37. Historically, the accuracy of the USDA’s May price forecast has varied greatly, with a very slight tendency to over estimate price. Since 1989, the May WASDE has overestimated price in 15 years (56%) by an average of $5.70, and underestimated price in 12 years by an average of $4.90. The CME this week is suggesting that the USDA forecast is more than $10 too low (on a live equivalent basis)….

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Hogs Rally Back To Strong Gains Through Tuesday

May 16, 3:50 pm | Hogs & Pork

An early morning break in the hog market found strong demand, that supported a rally into late in the day. June hogs broke nearly $.70 from the morning open and were $1.475 higher at the close. With May off the board, June becomes more commercially related, and the cash market continues to rally. The hog index was $1.31 higher at $71.94 and projected $1.07 higher for Wednesday. Packers were bidding for loads through Tuesday and negotiated trade was quoted $1.36 higher on strong volume. The pork market is now streaking higher and has gained nearly $10 since the start of the month, lead by the belly market which is up $26 for the month. Estimated packer margins for the week…

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Hogs Turn Down To Start The Week

May 15, 3:17 pm | Hogs & Pork

Early strength in hogs quickly ran into resistance and late day selling put summer prices in the red at the close. December hogs were just above unchanged for the day, but had resistance at the 50 and 100 day moving averages and finished near the low. The hog index was up $1.51 at $70.63 and the weekend slaughter data projects another $1.31 higher for Tuesday. Negotiated trade was called $.17 higher on moderate volume, but momentum looks to be slowing as kill margins have turned back down.   Hog slaughter peaked the last week of March and has been lower since. The load lineup for this week showed scheduled deliveries were fractionally under last week, which keeps the outlook for…

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Hogs Rally Ahead of the Weekend

May 12, 3:56 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hogs were higher at the open on Friday and marked higher closes for both the day and this week, with the strong gain noted in July which had the best weekly finish since early February. Technical demand in summer futures developed after the markets held key levels on Thursday, while cash prices continue to gain. The hog index was $1.48 higher on Friday at $69.12, or $6.88 higher for the week. The calculation for Monday shows another $1.52 higher and over $70 for the first time since late March. Negotiated prices continue to strengthen, but have slowed late week.     Placed against hog feeding margins at the CME have steadily improved over the last several weeks on better hog…

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