Analysis: Hogs & Pork

Hogs Break In Technical Trade

Feb 22, 3:22 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hog futures gapped lower at the open on Wednesday, and fell to deep losses through the day on technical liquidation and fundamental ideas that the cash market is nearing a top.    The lean hog index gained $.17 on Wednesday to $77.24, and is projected another $.41 higher for Thursday. Negotiated trade was also called $.32 lower, with good volume noted in the afternoon direct hog report.   The pork cutout dropped $4.30 on Wednesday to $80.24 as the belly market collapsed and was off near $25 from Tuesday. Wednesday’s break is signaling a top in belly prices, but the trade will look to Thursday’s Cold Storage report for confirmation.   April hogs closed under the 50 day moving average…

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Hog Futures Slide With Mixed Cash Markets

Feb 21, 3:34 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hogs were higher at the open on Tuesday, but found limited follow through demand and closed back below unchanged on late day selling. The CME lean hog index was up $1.09 from Friday at $77.07, and projected to be another $.17 higher for Wednesday.   Scheduled loads for the week reported on Monday were off 5% from the previous week, suggesting that this week’s kill could slip under 2.3 million head. The largest decline in the lineup was for Saturday, where packers have 39,000 fewer hogs booked than a week ago. Packers were bidding for loads on Monday, but the negotiated trade was reported $1.24 lower on Tuesday.   The pork belly value was at a new rally high on…

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Hogs Bounce On Short Covering Ahead Of The Weekend

Feb 17, 2:35 pm | Hogs & Pork

It was an inside day of trading in the hog market, that left futures higher for the day and firm for the week. With the cash market still moving higher, Thursday’s break was viewed as overdone on fund liquidation. The lean hog index was $.67 higher on Friday at $75.98, and projected another $.68 higher for Monday.   Hog slaughter for the week was just under last week, but still well over a year ago at 2.363 million head. According to the USDA’s count, the 2017 cumulative slaughter is 1.1% behind a year ago, versus market hog inventories that were up 4%.   The Commitment of Traders report showed funds are starting to slow their buying, with net length increasing…

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Hogs Continue Lower Through Thursday

Feb 16, 3:54 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hog futures followed the rest of the Ag trade on Thursday, trading up in the 1st half of the day and then falling in the last half to end on the lows. April marked the largest decline, while December finished just under $64. A year ago December traded between held between $62-66 through the spring before topping out at $67 in June, and then dropping to the low $40’s by Autumn.   The lean hog index was up $.69 at $75.31 on Thursday and is projected another $.67 higher for Friday. This puts the index $3.18 higher for the week  Negotiated hog trade was barely higher for the day on light volume, while the pork cutout was down $1.06, on…

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Hogs Close Down At Midweek

Feb 15, 4:10 pm | Hogs & Pork

An early morning rally in hogs quickly faded and futures were back at unchanged by midday, and lower at the close. April took over as the front month, and starts out at nearly $4 under the cash index. The index on Wednesday was up $.51 to $74.62, and projected another $.69 higher for Thursday.   Hog slaughter through Wednesday totaled 1.312 million head, and the weekly total is on track to be just over 2.3 million which is inline with the recent average. However packers were back bidding for loads through midweek and negotiated trade on Wednesday was up $.30 with moderate volume. The pork cutout was more than $1 higher in the morning report, but just a dime higher…

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Hogs Recover Losses Through Tuesday

Feb 14, 3:44 pm | Hogs & Pork

It was an inside day of trading in the hog market, that left futures higher at the close on Tuesday. The trade decided that Monday’s break was overdone, and futures were higher at the open and steadily moved up through the day. February expired at $75.175 or nearly $10 higher than a year ago. The lean hog index was up $.60 at $74.11, and projected another $.51 higher for Wednesday.   Slaughter so far this week is 1% behind last, though packers were again bidding for loads on Tuesday and negotiated trade was quoted $1.70 higher. Pork prices were mixed on Tuesday, but the carcass value was up $.24 at $85.38. Cash hog prices are still gaining faster than the…

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Hogs Start The Week Mostly Lower

Feb 13, 3:40 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hog futures settled mostly lower at the end of a big day of trading. April led the market lower and traded a $2.775 range and settled $1.375 lower, while February was up $.20 on higher cash prices ahead of Tuesday’s expiration. The lean hog index was up $.71 to start the week at $73.51, while the weekend slaughter data projects another $.60 higher for Tuesday.   Scheduled loads for the week on Monday were up 1% from a week ago, but indicate this week’s kill will fall inline with the average of the last several weeks, near 2.35 million head. Packers were bidding for loads on Monday, with negotiated trade quoted up $.40 with lighter volume totals noted.   Last…

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Hogs Trade Firm Through Friday, Finish Higher For The Week

Feb 10, 4:00 pm | Hogs & Pork

February hogs continued on to a new high, while the rest of the market quietly consolidated Thursday’s break. The lean hog index was up $.61 on Friday at $72.80, and projected $.71 higher on Monday.    Placed against hog feeding margins were slightly lower on the week as feed costs increased faster than summer hog futures. Weaned pig prices in the spot market were steady for the week at $54/head, versus $62 last year and the 5 year average of $53.   We continue to lean in favor of summer sales on strong rallies over $80…

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Hogs End Mostly Lower

Feb 9, 3:38 pm | Hogs & Pork

It was a mostly lower day of trade in the hog market with the exception being February, which jumped another $1 higher. The rest of the market sold lower on profit taking. The lean hog index was up $.74 at $72.19, and estimated another $.61 higher for Friday or up $3.16 for the week. Negotiated trade was $.92 higher on Thursday, while the pork cutout was down $.50. The belly value gained $.98 to a new rally high, but weakness in other cuts took the carcass value lower.     The February WASDE made some rather abrupt adjustments to production and price forecasts, with the largest changes realized in the 1st quarter on adjustments to the current pace. The 1st…

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Hogs Finish Sharply Mixed

Feb 8, 5:05 pm | Hogs & Pork

It was a sharply mixed day of trading in the hog market, with February pushing to new highs and marking strong gains on still higher cash prices. Hog futures to the end of the summer also pushed to new rally highs and then turned down on profit taking and bear spreading. February continues to find support ahead of next week’s expiration from still higher cash prices. The lean hog index was up $.50 at $71.45 on Wednesday, and projected to be another $.74 higher for Thursday.   Slaughter at midweek was near unchanged from last week at 1.327 million head, but packers were aggressively came for spot loads. The afternoon hog report showed the negotiated trade up $2.73 with good…

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