Analysis: Hogs & Pork

Hogs End Mixed On Nearby Weakness

Jul 20, 4:01 pm | Hogs & Pork

A steady start to the morning found selling in August, while a rally in December was stopped at midday, with price pulled back near unchanged at the close. The hog index was down 6 cents at $92.40, and projected 39 cents lower for Friday which puts the index $.83 lower for the week. Negotiated trade was also $.51 lower on moderate volume.   The July Livestock slaughter report showed total June pork production at 2.053 Bil Lbs, 102% of a year ago, and a record production total for the month of June. The monthly average barrow/gilt carcass weight was at 208 Lbs versus 211 Lbs a year ago. The weekly Actual Slaughter report with date for the week of July…

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July WASDE Livestock Price Forecasts

Jul 20, 2:44 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The July WASDE report featured pork production and price forecasts adjusted to the the June inventory data for the remainder of 2017 and through the 1st half of 2018. Minimal adjustments to quarterly production forecasts were made, with a slight increase for the 4th quarter, while the 1st quarter of 2018 was barely lowered. But production in both quarter are projected to be record large. The Oct-Dec average live hog price forecast was unchanged at $41-45, and th 1st quarter forecast was increased by $3 to $48-52. The chart plots the July WASDE 1st quarter forecast against actual prices. CME Feb/Apr hog futures adjusted to a live equivalent, with normal basis are pricing in a 1st quarter average live price…

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Hogs Close Lightly Mixed Around Unchanged

Jul 19, 4:41 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hogs closed higher at midweek, with August again finding support under the 50 day moving average and then closing $2 higher from Tuesday. Nearby strength supported higher closes across the rest of the market, leaving December just under $63. The hog index was off $.04 at midweek at $92.46 and projected $.07 lower for Thursday.   The pork cutout value was up $.70 at midweek to $104.69. The belly value gained $3.34 to a new record high of $211.35, which added more than $.50 to the carcass value. End users will be looking to next week’s Cold Storage report for an indication as to whether the strong June belly rally had any impact on demand.   Hog slaughter through the…

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Hogs Close Lightly Mixed Around Unchanged

Jul 18, 4:24 pm | Hogs & Pork

Tuesday was a mixed session in the hog trade, with neither rallies or breaks able to get much traction. At the close, nearby contracts were just below unchanged and deferred contracts were slightly better. The hog index was down $.28 for Tuesday and projected 4 cents lower for Wednesday.   The pork cutout was higher Tuesday morning, but down $.20 in the afternoon pork report at $103.99. The chart plots the spread between the cutout and the hog index, which this week has so far averaged $11.45/cwt or nearly $24/head. Note that margins tend to improve into the end of the year as packers gain leverage on increasing hog numbers.   The market is still struggling to balance strong pork…

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Hogs Bounce As July Contract Expires

Jul 17, 4:52 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hogs were mostly higher at the close on Monday with nearby contracts supported by much higher cash values. Monday’s trading marked the end of the July contract which finished at $92.40, while August takes over as the front month at more than $11 under both the July and the cash index. The hog index was 6 cents lower for Monday, and the weekend kill projects another $.28 weaker for Tuesday. The pork belly market was up more than $8 Monday morning and was $3.41 higher in the afternoon report, though the cutout value was lower on weakness in other products. Loads scheduled for this week were barely above last week, and indicate that this week’s kill is likely to be…

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Hogs Break Under Technical Pressure

Jul 14, 4:27 pm | Hogs & Pork

Selling in the hog market developed right from the open on Friday and kept futures under pressure into the close, with August marking the largest decline. The hog index was up $.09 at $92.84 and projected 6 cents lower for Monday – only the 2nd lower day since late April, while negotiated trade was off $.40 on good volume.    The Commitment of Traders report showed that funds used the break late last week and early this week to add to their hog position, taking net length to 84,189 contracts or the great PEDs scare in 2013! Hedgers were light sellers on the decline, but now have the most pork hedged since last summer.   The cutout gained $.81 on…

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Hogs End Firm But Well Under Early Highs

Jul 13, 4:57 pm | Hogs & Pork

Thursday was a mixed day of trade in the hog market, with an early rally stalling at midday and followed by selling into the close. August was down a dime at the close, while December marked the best gain for the day. The hog index continues to grind higher in search of a top and was up $.16 at $92.75, with Friday’s projection +$.09.      Weekly pork export sales were the lowest of the year, but much of that was likely due to the very short holiday work week. The same was true for the shipment pace, which was the lightest since the first week of the year. However, the pace of export commitments remains the largest since FAS…

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Hogs Mostly Lower On Tuesday

Jul 11, 4:55 pm | Hogs & Pork

Tuesday was an inside day of trading for August hogs, which was caught between July pushing higher on strong cash values ahead of expiration, and the rest of the market that is pricing in a seasonal top. July hogs expire next Monday, and settled on par with the cash index. The hog index was unchanged at $92.46 and projected $.13 higher for Wednesday.   The latest estimates for hog producer profitability as calculated by IA State University, show wean to finish hog feeding margins reached a 33 month high during the month of June, of nearly $24/head. Feeders benefited from weakening feed grain and protein meal prices, while strong demand for pork bellies lifted hog prices to multi year highs. While…

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Hogs Turn Back Up Ahead Of The Weekend

Jul 7, 4:36 pm | Hogs & Pork

It was an inside day of trading in the hog market, with a lower open finding good support that carried hog futures higher into the close. The hog index was up $.47 at $92.40 and projected 6 cents higher for Monday. Pork prices were mixed at the end of the week but the carcass value was $1.12 higher at $104.96. The belly value was up $5.73 for the day at a new all time high of $206.96.   The Commitment of Traders report showed that through Monday, commodity funds were buyers of 10,306 contracts, and now hold the largest hog position since November 2013. Hedgers used the post inventory report rally to add to sales, selling 12,333 contracts through the…

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Hogs Break On Profit Taking/Technical Trade

Jul 6, 4:23 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hogs were weaker at the open on Thursday and prices moved lower in technical trade. August was nearly $2 lower for the day, and December down just $.20 and still above $65. The hog index gained $.22 to $91.93 and projected another $.47 higher for Friday. Pork prices were weaker and the carcass value was down $.57 at $103.84, however estimated slaughter margins for this week are at $26/head.   The week’s Actual Slaughter Report, with date for the week of June 24th, showed an average barrow and gilt carcass weight of 205 Lbs, unchanged from the previous week, but 2 Lbs lighter than a year ago, and the lowest for late June since 2013. Weights should continue to work…

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