Analysis: Soybeans

Soybeans Extend Weekly Gains Through Thursday’s Trading

Jul 20, 3:26 pm | Soybeans

Soy futures traded up overnight and continued higher through the day on Thursday. Producers have been light sellers in the last week on concerns of yield and crop size, so the market is back searching for supply. At the close, soybean prices were up 13-14 cents, and more than 40 cents over last week’s low. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 12,000 soybean and 4,000 contracts each in the soymeal and soyoil markets.   Old crop soybean export sales jumped to a 7 week high, and new crop sales were the largest of the year at 1.5 MMTs. Export commitments are now just over 60 MMTs or 106% of the USDA’s forecast. However cumulative shipments stand at 53.6 MMTs,…

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Soybeans Bounce Back On Weather/Crop Worries

Jul 19, 4:41 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans were higher overnight and extended gains throughout the day on weather concern, and expectations for a further decline in US crop ratings. Commodity fund traders were estimated as buyers of; 8,000 soybeans, and 3,000 contracts each in the soymeal and soyoil markets.   Brazilian soymeal exports have been well under last year through the first 5 months of the year, but the midweek Brazilian vessel lineup update shows a sharp and counter seasonal jump in meal export demand. The lineup shows 1.5 MMTs to sail in July, of which 1 MMTs is outstanding. But with just 12 days left in the month, it’s likely that some of those ships will be rolled forward into August. Brazilian meal often trades…

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Plains Weather & Crop Production

Jul 18, 4:36 pm | Corn, Soybeans

Drought is expanding, and amid current forecasts calling for near complete dryness across a bulk of the Plains, ARC looks for condition ratings to fall, not rise, in the next two weeks. However, even simply accounting for plunging crop conditions across the Northern and Western Plains, substantial US yield adjustments lie in the offing. ARC notes that not that long ago the Dakotas were considered as being fringe producing states; now they account for some 10% of US corn area. Kansas, too, has seeded a record 5.3 Mil Acres in 2017. Based on weather to date, ARC’s work projects combined yield in NE, SD and ND to exist 12-13% below trend, which along with slightly higher abandonment results in combined…

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Soybeans Mark Modest Gains, But Well Under Highs

Jul 18, 4:05 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans were higher overnight following a further decline in crop ratings on Monday, though prices began to slide as the midday GFS output became available. At the high, November soybeans had been up 19 cents, and were 4.25 cents higher at the close. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 5,000 soybean, 3,000 soymeal, and 2,000 soyoil contracts.   Canadian canola futures were higher through Tuesday and gained slightly against Chicago soybeans. The chart plots new crop price trends in both commodities since May 1st. Note that soybeans have lead the canola market from the June low, though it’s the Canadian canola crop that could potentially hold the more bullish balance sheet. Drought stress in key production provinces looks to…

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Soybeans Finish Slightly Lower Following Mixed Trade

Jul 17, 4:52 pm | Soybeans

It was a mixed and indecisive start to the week for the soybean market. Early strength tied to weather and new crop yield prospects was wiped out at midday as June crush data was under expectations. At the close, soybeans were down 3-4 cents, but holding well over last week’s low. Commodity fund traders were estimated sellers of 5,000 soybean, 2,000 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil contracts.   NASS reported a further decline in crop condition ratings through the week, despite widespread rains last week. 61% of the crop was rated as either good or excellent, versus 62% last week and 71% a year ago. While the drought monitor suggests that drought in the Plains has lessened in recent weeks, crop…

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US Soybean Crush in June

Jul 17, 4:48 pm | Soybeans

NOPA reported that its membership crushed 138 Mil Bu during the month of June which was 5 Mil Bu under expectations and 7 Mil Bu less than a year ago. Based on the NOPA data, we estimate a total US soybean crush rate of 147 Mil Bu. The USDA recently lowered their estimate for the annual US soybean crush 1,900 Mil Bu, but following a disappointing June crush, the USDA’s annual forecast could still be 20-30 Mil Bu too large. Note that monthly crush totals since February have been below a year ago, but to reach the USDA’s annual forecast, July and August crush figures each need to be well over last year. Crush spreads at the CME are similar to…

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Soy Futures Bounce Ahead Of The Weekend

Jul 14, 4:27 pm | Soybeans

Following a more than 60 cent break from the early week highs, soybeans caught support overnight and then extended gains through the day. At the close, soybeans were up 12-15 cents with most new crop contracts back over $10. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 9,000 soybean, 4,000 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil contracts.     The Commitment of Traders report reflected a significant transfer of ownership in trading through Tuesday. Funds were buyers of 89,264 contracts on short covering and were net long 19,048 contracts, while hedgers were net sellers of 77,776 contracts and back to net short 50,671 contracts.   Much of the Midwest saw 1-2” of rain over the last week, though the Plains drought appears to be…

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Soy Futures Drop In Post July WASDE Trade

Jul 13, 4:47 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans were lower overnight, trading down into the chart gap left on Monday and selling accelerated as the day advanced. By the close, soybean prices were off 44-46 cents, with meal down $17-18/ton. Commodity fund traders were estimated sellers of 30,000 soybean, 7,500 soymeal, and 4,500 soyoil contracts.   Soybean export sales were at expectations in old crop, and the largest of the year for new crop. New crop sales have been exceptionally slow, with cumulative sales the lowest since 2007 at 4 MMTs. However, a Chinese delegation signed framed contracts in Des Moines, IA on Wednesday for 12.53 MMTs of new crop soybeans. Net old crop soymeal sales fell to a marketing year low of just 3,743 MTs. Old…

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Chinese Soybean Imports In June

Jul 13, 2:24 pm | China, Soybeans

China’s preliminary trade data for the month of June was released on Thursday, showing all origin soybean imports totaling 7.69 MMTs. The June figure was inline with expectations and just above last year, but a 20% decline from the May import total. Exports from Brazil and US during the month of June indicate that the July import rate could slip below last year, and be closer to 7.5 MMTs, which if realized would put Oct-Jul import total just over 74 MMTs. In the July WASDE report the USDA increased their estimate for 2016/17 Chinese soybean imports to 91 MMTs. If our estimate for July imports is correct, August and September imports would need to average just over 8 MMTs to…

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