Analysis: Soybeans

Soy Futures Slump In Slow Pre Holiday Trade

May 25, 4:37 pm | Soybeans

Firm overnight trade gave way to technical selling that took both new and old crop soybean contracts to the lowest level in a year. New speculative selling was the theme across the complex. Commodity fund traders were estimated as net sellers of; 6,000 soybean, 2,000 soymeal, and 2,500 soyoil contracts.   US soybean export sales were towards the top end of expectations, and also at a 4 week high. Total export commitments at 57.8 MMTs are record large and represent 104% of the latest USDA annual export estimate, with a record large 7 MMTs of outstanding sales. This after the USDA increased their export forecast in May to 2,050 Mil Bu. It’s possible that the USDA raises the forecast by…

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Soy Futures Finish Little Changed Following Choppy Trade

May 24, 5:08 pm | Soybeans

It was a dull day of trade in the soy market with prices nearly unchanged at the close. July soybeans had support overnight against last week’s low, and the market spent the entire day trading inside that range. Commodity fund traders were estimated as sellers of; 500 soybean and 1,500 soyoil contracts, while being flat for the day in the soymeal market.     Soybean harvest in Argentina remained slow last week due to rain. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s weekly crop report estimated harvest at 80% complete versus 75% last week. A year ago, harvest progress was at 72%, while the 5 year average is 83%. The Exchange noted that there could be  localized yield losses due to excessive…

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Soybeans Close Down On Weak S American Currencies

May 23, 4:43 pm | Soybeans

Early morning strength quickly found selling, that kept soybean and product markets under pressure into the close, with weaker S American currencies thought to be freeing up Southern Hemisphere supplies. The Argentine Peso this week has slipped to a new all time low, while the Brazilian Real holds at a 5 month low. Commodity fund traders sold 5,000 soybean, 3,000 soymeal, and 4,000 soyoil contracts.   The USDA’s daily export reporting system showed 126,000 MTs of old crop soybeans sold to an unknown destination (presumed to be China), which marks the 4th announcement in the last 6 weeks. China continues to process soybeans at a record rate, with last week’s crush estimated at just over 1.8 MMTs. Cumulative crush is…

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Soybeans Continue Higher Through Monday

May 22, 3:36 pm | Soybeans

Selling tied to the Brazilian currency was largely completed last week, and US Midwest weather and crop conditions captured the market’s focus at the start of the week. Both old and new crop soybeans were able to build off of Friday’s recovery, with new crop gaining slightly on old crop. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of; 3,000 soybean and 1,500 soymeal contracts, while selling 1,500 soyoil.   NASS reported US soy planting progress at 53% complete, versus 56% last year and the 5 year average of 52%. MN is leading the Cornbelt states at 72% completed, while KS and WI are the slowest at 27% and 29% planted. After a slower start to the year, planting is back above…

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Soybeans Recover On Real/Dollar Strength

May 19, 3:05 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans traded were higher overnight and able to extend gains through the day as the Brazilian currency was able to recover much of Thursday’s loss. In the soy product markets, old crop meal was down slightly for the day, while new crop ended just above unchanged, and soyoil recovered almost all of Thursday’s losses. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 4,000 contracts each in soybeans and soyoil, and sold 1,500 soyoil contracts.    The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that through Tuesday, commodity funds increased their net short soybean futures position by 959 contracts to 39,312, and were net long 2,789 contracts in options. July soybeans end the week 10 cents lower, but on a spot basis the…

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Soybeans Fall On Brazilian Selling

May 18, 3:22 pm | Soybeans

CBOT soy was sharply lower overnight on news from Brazil and selling continued on through the day, leaving futures down 31 cents in July, off 23 cents in November, and the July/November spread fell back to $.025 July premium. Soy product markets fell in similar trading with July meal dropping to the lowest price in 8 months. Commodity fund traders sold 23,000 soybeans and 8,000 contracts each in soymeal & soyoil.   The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 75% of the Argentine soybean crop has been cut through this week, up from 67% last week and 61% last year. The Exchange held estimates for area and yield unchanged, for a total crop size of 57.5 MMTs, of which 44.3…

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Brazilian Politics Roil Financial Markets

May 18, 12:15 pm | Brazil, Currency, Soybeans

A Different Year, Same Brazilian Politics: It’s been nearly a year since Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was impeached, and the country is now facing another presidential crisis. Late Wednesday afternoon a major Brazilian newspaper ran a story of how the current president Michel Temer had been recorded approving a cover up scheme involving bribes the form speaker of the lower house of Congress (currently in prison). When made aware that the former speaker was being bribed to stay silent, Mr. Temer is alleged to have approved the bribes and encouraged them to continue. Following the story release, the Brazilian stock market fell more than 9% on Thursday and the Brazilian currency was was off more than 8% against the US…

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Soybeans End Little Changed With Product Markets Lightly Mixed

May 17, 3:21 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans End Little Changed With Product Markets Lightly Mixed: Soybeans were higher overnight in follow through trading, but both July and November had resistance above respective 50 day moving averages, which left futures just below unchanged at the close. Commodity fund traders were sellers of 500 soybean and 2,000 soymeal contracts, and bought of 1,000 contracts in soyoil.      The latest Brazilian port data shows exports through mid month at just over 5 MMTs, with another 4.4 MMTs scheduled to sail by the end of the month. May exports of 9.6 MMTs would be 1 MMTs over a year ago, and cumulative exports from February would be 4.7 MMTs (15%) over last year. Ship waiting times at key ports…

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