Analysis: Soybeans

Canadian Planting Intentions

Apr 21, 3:46 pm | Corn, Soybeans, Wheat

Canadian farmers intend to plant 1.63 Mil more Hectares than last year’s final area, with most of the expansion in oilseeds. Combined canola and soybean seeding intention were pegged by Stats Canada this AM at a record 11.9 Mil HAs, up 1.4 Mil (14%) from last year, and with limited expansion in crush capacity additional supplies will find their way to the world market. ARC does note that cool/wet weather into early May will limit seeding progress, and so weather in May is much more important, but today’s report leans a bit bearish. Canadian wheat seedings at 9.4 Mil HAs are unchanged from last year, and so are slightly higher than expected. Winter wheat seedings in E Canada are down,…

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Soy Futures Finish Firm In Late Week Trade

Apr 21, 2:43 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans were back and forth through the day and 3-5 cents higher at the close. Market news remains slow, but the announcement of US old crop soybean sales to an unknown destination (likely China) was a surprise. The sale does not change the US balance sheet significantly, but shows that the US could catch some unexpected, late season export business. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 7,000 soybean contracts, and 3,000 each in soymeal and soyoil.   Even after the large break in soybean prices over the last 2 months, soybean basis has stayed fairly flat in C IL, (and significantly weaker in the Western Cornbelt). The US market has been flush with supply, and end users have not…

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Soybeans Turn Back Down In Choppy Trade

Apr 20, 3:37 pm | Soybeans

Higher trading overnight gave way to profit taking and technical trade through the day, that left soybeans 3-5 cents lower at the close on Thursday. Meal marked the worst close for the day, while oil finished higher on spreads. Commodity fund traders sold 5,000 soybean and 4,000 soymeal contracts, and buyers of 5,000 in soyoil.     The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentine harvest progress for this week at 16.3%, unchanged from a year ago but still well under the 5 year average of 40% and one of the slowest starts to harvest since the Exchange began providing weekly estimates. The average yield was down slightly to 3.57 MTs/HA, but the best yields are generally cut at the start…

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Soybeans Close Firm At The End Of Quiet Trading

Apr 19, 2:43 pm | Soybeans

It was an inside day of trading in the soybean market that left prices slightly higher at the close. Soy product markets ended lightly mixed, with meal slipping lower while soyoil found good support back below unchanged and closed higher. Commodity fund traders were estimated as net buyers of 6,500 soybean and 6,500 soyoil contracts, and sold 4,000 in soymeal.     After a slow start to the year, Brazilian soymeal exports have quickly accelerated this month. The latest vessel lineup shows that 634,000 MTs of meal have sailed, with another 954,000 MTs scheduled for this month. This would put April exports near 1.6 MMTs or unchanged from last year, and cumulative exports would also be unchanged at 3.3 MMTs….

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Soy Markets Remain Weak Through Tuesday

Apr 18, 3:07 pm | Soybeans

Following lower trade overnight, soy markets broke at the morning open. Soybeans and meal recovered some losses late in the day, but both markets were still lower at the end of trading. Commodity fund traders were estimated as net sellers through the day of 9,000 soybean, 2,000 soymeal, and 5,500 soyoil contracts.   Chinese soybean crush last week was estimated at a 5 week high of 1.6 MMTs. Crush rates since February have moderated and been similar to the a year ago, but the cumulative total for the year is still 8% ahead of last year due to strong processing rates in the first 4 months of the year. The chart plots the relationship between the cumulative crush rate and…

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Soybeans End Weaker In Uneventful Trading

Apr 17, 3:14 pm | Soybeans

Following firm trade overnight, soybeans turned down through the day, giving back a couple cents by the close. Weekly Export inspections were towards the low end of expectations, while the March crush figure was 3 Mil Bu short of the average estimate. Commodity fund traders were estimated as net sellers of 3,000 soybean and 4,000 soymeal contracts, and bought 4,500 contracts of soyoil.   NOPA members reported that they exported just over 1 Mil tons of soymeal in the month of March, a 36% increase over last year and the largest monthly total in more than 4 years. Reporting on meal trade has proven to be far less reliable/consistent than the soybean processing data. NOPA meal exports have ranged from…

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US Soybean Crush Update

Apr 17, 1:51 pm | Soybeans

NOPA reported a member crush total of 153 Mil Bu or about 4 Mil Bu less than the average expectation. The cumulative NOPA crush rate for this year is 2% larger than a year ago at 1,072 Mil Bu. On a regional basis, the IL crush rate is now 10% over last year, and crush rates in the Southwestern states has increased 7%. Processing rates in both the Eastern and Western Midwest states are running 1% and 3% behind last year, and the IA crush total is also off 1%. With NOPA representing 94% of the US crush industry, we estimate a total US crush rate for the month of 163 Mil Bu, or 3 Mil Bu less than a…

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Soybean and Product Markets Close Higher On Short Covering

Apr 12, 4:06 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans were able to build on Tuesday’s reversal and closed higher on Wednesday, marking the best close since the March stocks/planting intentions report. It’s a holiday shortened trading week, and with no surprises in the April WASDE report, markets are finding short covering ahead of the planting season. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 7,000 soybean, 4,000 contracts each in the soy product markets.   Preliminary Chinese trade data for March will be released tonight, and the highlight for the Ag trade will be the soybean import total. Brazil shipped nearly 5 MMTs to China in February and the US sent just over 4 MMTs, and so we expect that March imports will be near 9 MMTs. Based on US…

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