Analysis: Soybeans

Chinese Soybean and Feedgrain Imports in February

Mar 23, 3:02 pm | China, Corn, Soybeans

Preliminary Chinese trade data with February soybean import data was released 2 weeks ago, and the complete trade report that includes additional information such as imports by origination, was released on Thursday. Soybean imports from all countries totaled 5.54 MMTs in February, a rather typical decline from January, but 23% larger than a year ago and the largest February import total on record. Thursday’s trade report showed that 4.4 MMTs (80%) arrived from the US, while total imports from S America totaled 0.687 MMTs (12%) originated from S America. Note that imports from the US tend to peak in December, while imports from Brazil normally accelerate in April. Due to the early Brazilian harvest this year and record large Jan/Feb…

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Soy Futures Slip Lower Through Midweek

Mar 22, 2:52 pm | Soybeans

It was another mixed day of trade in the soy markets that left soybeans lightly mixed, but little changed. Meal traded quietly and was settled at a new low, while bean oil came alive late in the morning and trade up into late in the day. Commodity fund traders sold 3,000 contracts in meal, bought 5,000 soyoil, and were flat in soybeans.   The latest port data from Brazil shows that 5.6 MMTs of soybeans have sailed this month, with another 4.5 MMTs scheduled. March shipments of 10 MMTs would be record large and 1.7 MMTs over last year, while cumulative exports at 16 MMTs would be 32% over 2016. But what is concerning is the limited amount that is…

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Soybeans Close Firm In Choppy Trading

Mar 21, 2:59 pm | Soybeans

  Soybeans traded a very broad range around unchanged through Tuesday, before ending firm. May soybeans found early support back under $10, while a burst of technical trading at midday stalled above Monday’s high. In the soy product markets, soyoil marked strong gains while meal was mixed on old crop weakness. Commodity fund traders bought 3,000 soybean and 5,000 soyoil contracts, and sold 2,000 soymeal.   The Brazilian soybean processors association ABIOVE, reported a membership processing rate of 2.1 MMTs for the motnh of January. ABIOVE memberhsip represents about 78% of the total Brazilian crushing industry which implies a total January crush near 2.7 MMTs, 21% increase over last year and the largest January crush on record. That increase looks…

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Soybeans Start The Week Little Changed

Mar 20, 2:46 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans traded higher overnight and had support from short covering, but turned down at midday and were lightly mixed and little changed at the close. Heading into the last half of the month, supply fundamentals continue to lean bearish, with large US stocks and expectations for acreage expansion keeping steady downward pressure on the market. Commodity fund traders on Monday were estimated sellers of 1,500 soymeal contracts, buyers of 2,000 in soyoil, and flat in soybeans.   Soybean export inspections last week were above expectations at 27 Mil Bu. The weekly figure lifted the cumulative inspection total to 1,681 Mil Bu, or 12% over last year’s 1,506 Mil Bu. After a record inspections rate early in the year, weekly figures…

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Price Response Following NASS’s March Reports

Mar 20, 1:37 pm | Corn, Soybeans

  There’s no real tendency for corn and soybean futures to rally or fall after the release of the March Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings reports. At the start of the biofuel era, when stocks were tight and markets were still adjusting to new found corn demand and strong Chinese soybean import demand, the reports tended to produce rather volatile price responses in both cash and futures prices. Price responses have been less dramatic in the last 3 years, though volatility has remained above the pre biofuel era.   In the last decade, it’s often been the old crop quarterly stocks figure that has moved markets, and new crop prices have followed the old crop trends. In 2016, with the…

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Soybeans End Lower On Friday And Finish Down For The Week

Mar 17, 2:46 pm | Soybeans

It was a very uneventful day of trading in the soy markets to end the week. Short covering support overnight found selling at the morning open, and soybeans were just below unchanged at the close. Trading in the soy produce markets was also uneventful, and meal finished slightly lower and soyoil was fractionally higher. Commodity fund traders were estimated as net sellers of 3,000 soybean and 500 soyoil contracts, and flat in the soyoil market.     Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso was estimated at 95% complete this week, and still well ahead of normal. A year ago, 85% of the crop had been harvested, and the 5 year average is 90%.   The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed funds…

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Soy Futures End Firm On Late Day Buying

Mar 16, 3:01 pm | Soybeans

It was an inside day of trading in the soybean market that lef futures firm at Thursday’s close, with late buying putting the market above unchanged ahead of the close. In the soy product markets, meal continues to find support against major moving averages, while nearby soybean oil settled just above unchanged. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 2,500 soybean and 1,500 soymeal, and sold 500 in soyoil.      The EPA reported that there were 215million biodiesel RINS generated during the month of February versus 205 million a year ago. The number of RINS fell sharply at the start of the year as biodiesel blender demand fell sharply with the disapearance of the blenders tax credt. Domestic production…

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March 1st Soybean Stocks Estimate

Mar 16, 12:14 pm | Soybeans

  AgResource estimates March 1st soybean stocks at 1,645 Mil Bu, up 114 Mil Bu (7%) from a year ago and also at a 10 year high. As reflected in the chart, total usage through the quarter is estimated 7% larger than a year ago and at an all time high. Quarterly exports are estimated to have been up 68 Mil Bu from a year ago at 68 Mil Bu, while crush is estimated at to be about 10 Mil Bu larger than a year ago. Slower soymeal export demand has weighed on soymeal basis, but the domestic soymeal market has easily absorbed the additional supply. Domestic disappearance through January was 4% (1 Mil tons) larger than last year. The…

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Soy Futures Turn Down On Disapointing Crush Data

Mar 15, 2:58 pm | Soybeans

Early strength in the soybean market faded ahead of the monthly crush data, and the soybean trade turned negative as the monthly NOPA crush data fell short of expectations. Soy product prices were sharply mixed with meal prices around unchanged, while soyoil gave back overnight gains and closed down. Commodity fund traders sold 3,000 contracts each in soybeans and soyoil, and were flat in soymeal.   NOPA reported February soymeal exports at 738,825 short tons, down 17% from January and 8% larger than a year ago. NOPA meal exports have proven to be a rather poor predictive tool for total US meal exports, but have often been a helpful gauge as too whether export trends are up or down. But…

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2016/17 US Soybean Crush Update

Mar 15, 11:38 am | Soybeans

NOPA reported a February crush rate of 143 Mil Bu, down from 146 Mil Bu last year and just under the average trade estimate that called for an unchanged crush total of 146 Mil Bu. February is the first month this year that the US crushing rate was under a year ago, but it’s also worth noting that February had 1 additional day last year. On a per day basis, the 2017 crushing rate was actual 1% larger than a year ago. On average, the NOPA crush data covers 94% of the total US crush industry, which this month implies a US crushing total of 152 Mil Bu versus 155 million a year ago. The USDA raised their forecast for…

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