Analysis: Soybeans

Soybean/Meal Futures Slip Lower Into Midweek

Feb 22, 3:45 pm | Soybeans

Overnight strength in the soybean market gave way to liquidation and technical trading. Soybeans and meal were both in the red at the close, while soyoil traded inside on short covering. Commodity fund traders were estimated sellers of 5,000 soybean and 4,000 soymeal contracts, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil contracts.   The market is anxiously awaiting the acreage results from the USDA’s Outlook Forum later this week, which are expected to show increased US soybean acres. The chart shows the new crop soybean/corn ratio, which finished today at 2.55:1. Since the mid-90’s, there has been just 1 other year that the ratio was this high in late February, which was in 2005. But in that year, the soybean market was…

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Soy Selling Continues At The Start Of The Week

Feb 21, 3:37 pm | Soybeans

Soy futures were under pressure from the morning open (hedge pressure) and the entire complex was led lower by a break in the soyoil market, which slipped to a 5 month low on falling Asian palm oil prices. Commodity funds were estimated as sellers of; 7,000 soybean, 2,500 soymeal, and 5,000 soyoil contracts.   US soybean export inspections for the week ending Feb 16th were at the lower end of expectations at 40 Mil Bu, the lowest weekly inspections total since September. Cumulative inspections for the crop year are 1,568 Mil Bu, 14% over a year ago versus the latest USDA forecast that calls for a 6% increase. But, remember US soybean exports will not match last year in July/August…

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Soy Futures Trade Down Ahead Of The Weekend

Feb 17, 2:47 pm | Soybeans

Liquidation and technical selling in the soy markets continued into Friday. The January concerns that the Brazilian soy crop could be smaller than expected, have been replaced with February worries that it is now far larger. Commodity fund traders sold 9,000 soybean, 3,000 soymeal, and 6,000 soyoil contracts.   The harvest pace in Mato Grosso slowed last week, though the 2017 harvest is now estimated to be more than half complete. The state agency IMEA reported that 52% of the crop has now been cut, well above both last year and the 5 year average which are each 40%. Brazilian soy export commitments for February continue to increase, with the latest port data showing cumulative shipments now at 3 MMTs, with…

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CME Soy Markets Drop On Liquidation

Feb 16, 2:45 pm | Soybeans

E Early strength in the soybean and meal markets faded by midday, and technical selling put soy markets at their lows just ahead of the CBOT close. March soyoil fell under the 200 day moving average and now looks to be confirming a head and shoulders top that offers a downside target near 30 cents/lb. Commodity fund traders sold 10,000 soybean contracts, and 4,000 contracts each in the soymeal and soyoil.     US soybean export sales in the week ending Feb 9th were above expectations and at a 4 week high of 0.9 MMTs. Export commitments for the year are now 10 MMTs over last year and record large at 52 MMTs. Cumulative shipments are 6 MMTs larger while outstanding…

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Soybeans Trade Higher On Renewed Fund Demand

Feb 15, 3:46 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans and meal marked strong gains at midweek led by old crop meal futures, while soyoil futures slumped through spreads. Fundamentally, there was little to report for the day, and trader discussions pointed to fund demand for Ag commodities. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers through the day of 11,000 soybean and 5,000 soymeal contracts, and sellers of 4,000 contracts in the soyoil market.     Monthly soymeal exports in the NOPA report were at 891,143 tons or 24% of the total NOPA meal production. The January shipment figure was down 6% from December but 30% over a year ago. The chart shows a loose relationship between NOPA meal exports and total US exports. The 2 data sets often move…

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2016/17 US Soybean Crush Update

Feb 15, 1:58 pm | Soybeans

NOPA crush data for the month of January showed a processing rate of 106.6 Mil Bu, 1.5 million over the average trade estimate, more than 10 million over a year ago, and the 3rd largest January NOPA crush figure on record. With the NOPA data on average catching 94% of the total US soybean crush, we estimate a total crush rate for the month of 171 Mil Bu. This would put the cumulative crush total for the year at 825 Mil Bu, and still on track to hit the USDA’s annual forecast of 1,930 million bushels. The chart reflects monthly estimates for the rest of the year, that are needed to reach the USDA forecast. But crush rates in every…

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Soybeans Turn Down On Profit Taking

Feb 14, 3:01 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans and meal futures were weaker in the overnight trade, and liquidation kept the markets in the red through Tuesday. Old crop meal led the CME soy markets lower, while soyoil caught support from a bounce in Asian palm oil market. March soyoil again found demand back under the contract’s 200 day moving average, and was nearer to the high of the day at the close.   Commodity fund traders were estimated sellers of; 7,500 soybeans, 3,500 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil contracts. Since last Tuesday, funds are estimated to have been net buyers of 14,000 futures contracts, which would put the futures only position at net long about 170,000 contracts in Friday’s Commitment of Traders report   Brazilian soybean offers…

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2017/18 Soybean Acreage Estimates

Feb 14, 8:59 am | Soybeans

The latest cost of production estimates from the USDA’s Economic Research Service that were updated in December, project a national average per acre cost for corn of $670, with soybean cost estimated at $474/acre. The corn cost is down $2 from 2016 and the soybean cost is $2 higher. For producers that are still in the process of planning crop acres for 2017, the largest difference from a year ago is in new crop price bids. November soybeans today are $1.40/Bu higher than a year ago, while December corn is $.25/Bu higher. The chart reflects expected returns, or the cost of production less revenue assumptions based on trend yields and new crop prices in February. Note that this model shows…

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