Analysis: Soybeans

Soybeans Rally Ahead Of The Weekend

Sep 22, 3:14 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans were higher overnight, and extended gains through the day in technical trading, with November pushing above both key trend line resistance and the 200-day moving average. December soymeal again led the complex higher and rallied from the 50-day moving average to test the 200-day moving average for the first time since late July. Funds were estimated buyers of 10,000 soybean and 4,000 soymeal contracts, and were falt for the day in the soyoil market.   The Commitment of Traders report confirmed that funds had finished covering their net short position in the soybean market, and started building a net long position  which as of Tuesday totaled 14,000 contracts. Funds have been chopped up in the soybean trade over the…

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Yield Changes in October

Sep 22, 3:13 pm | Corn, Soybeans

Since 1990, there has not been a strong tendency for NASS to either raise or lower the national soybean yield estimate in the October crop report. There have been 11 years that the yield was lowered by an average of 0.9 BPA, 12 years that NASS’s yield increased by an average of 1.1 BPA, and 2 years that the yield was unchanged. More recently, yield has been unchanged or higher in 8 of the last 13 years, with only minimal declines noted. However, there have been some surprising declines that have developed as crops have matured. The largest decline occurred in 2003, when both pod weights and pod counts declined in October, and continued to fall into the January Crop…

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Soymeal Rally Keeps Soybeans Firm

Sep 21, 3:59 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans closed firm on Thursday while soy products were sharply mixed. Soymeal led the CBOT soy markets higher and finished back above both the 50 and 100 day moving averages, supporting the soybean trade while soyoil marked the lowest close in nearly a month. Funds were estimated buyers of 1,000 soybean and 2,500 soymeal contracts, and sold 3,000 contracts in the soyoil market.   US soybean export sales were well above expectations at just over 2.3 MMTs, the largest since last October. Soyoil sales remained light in both old and new crop positions. The soyoil market bottomed in early June and has trended higher since, as the market anticiapted that the government would intervene to slow foreign biodiesel imports, and…

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Soybeans End Firm On Export Demand

Sep 20, 3:20 pm | Soybeans

Following firm trading overnight, soybeans extended gains on improved export demand. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of; 3,000 soybeans, 1,000 soymeal and 2,000 soyoil contracts.     Ahead of the morning open, the USDA announced old crop export sales totaling 132,000 MTs to China and another 960,000 MTs to unknown, with another 120,000 MTs of new crop soybeans also to unknown. The chart plots net soybean sales announcements (old & new combined) since March. Note that announcements have accelerated since Aug 1, with a total of 27 transactions for new crops soybeans, totaling 4.75 MMTs. Tuesday’s combined total of 1.21 MMTs was the largest since July, which was directly following a Chinese framed contract signing ceremony is Des Moines….

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Sept 1st US Soybean Stocks Estimate

Sep 19, 3:43 pm | Soybeans

The USDA’s stocks estimates for the 2016/17 crop year have been in a wide range over the last year. The peak estimate was in December at 480 Mil Bu, with estimates steadily grinding lower to the most recent forecast of 345 Mil Bu. Crush estimates have moved lower over the last year, largely due to slower meal export. However, lower crush has been more than offset by rising exports. Residual was also lowered following the March stocks report, and in recent years, declining residual has preceded an increase in the crop size in the Sep stocks report. ARC estimates a 4th quarter residual of -95 Mil Bu, with Sep 1 stocks at 341 Mil Bu, assuming no change in the…

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Soybeans Recover From Midday Lows

Sep 19, 3:23 pm | Soybeans

Early selling in November soybeans found support at the 100 day moving average that pared back losses and left November 2.25 lower for the day, but 7 over the early morning low. Soyoil had support under the 50 day moving average, and meal was lower on meal/oil spreading. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,000 soybean and 3,000 soymeal contracts, and buyers of 3,000 contracts in the soyoil market.   Early Brazilian soybean planting is now underway, though producers across the country will likely wait for better rains to develop over the next several weeks. The question for this year is the extent that Brazilian producers will expand soybean acreage? Soy area has increased every year for the last decade, and…

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Soybeans End Just Below Unchanged

Sep 18, 4:31 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans rallied from the AM open on export sales announcements that totaled 387,000 MTs. However, November soybeans found resistance back above the contract’s 50 day moving average. The soy product markets finished sharply mixed, with meal leading the soy complex higher, while soyoil followed Malaysian palm oil lower. Commodity funds sold 500 soybean and 3,000 soyoil contracts, while buying 1,000 soymeal.    NASS reported national GD/EX soybean crop ratings at 59%, down 1% from last week, while national harvest was 4% complete. The chart shows IA GD/EX ratings, which declined 3% for the week to 58%. While late season rains in W Iowa offered late summer relief, crop ratings remain well under the long term average and well below a…

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Soybean Rally Pauses at 50-Day Moving Average

Sep 15, 4:56 pm | Soybeans

CBOT soy futures eased on Friday on pre weekend harvest hedge selling. Soybeans rallied a sharp $.40/Bu following the USDA September crop report on end user pricing and short covering. November soybeans failed to exceed resistance at $9.80, but the market did forge a weekly upside reversal. This will be noted by fund managers early next week. Traders/fund managers are not believing of USDA’s September soy yield of 49.9 BPA amid record soybean pod weights. They argue that unlike recent years, the acute Midwest dryness limited top pod formation/fill.       Managed money is net short just over 4,000 contracts of soybeans, net short 32,000 contracts of soymeal and long a record 100,000 contracts of soyoil. The huge fund soyoil…

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Soybeans Futures Post Strong Gains in a Weekly Reversal

Sep 14, 4:54 pm | Soybeans

Soy futures regained all of their September Crop Report losses and poked above the early September rally high at $9.775. November futures closed above its 50 day moving average at $9.735 with the next upside price target is a weekly downtrend line (see attached chart) that crosses just under $10.00.   Strong and record large world soybean demand has prevented spot CBOT futures from falling below $9.00-9.20 support since early 2016, and we see no reason for such a break now with US farmers initially finding disappointing yield trends. Just a few fields are being cut in Central IL and Southern IA with results 4-11 BPA below last year. Small bean size and fewer 4 pod beans are being tagged as…

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