Analysis: WASDE/USDA

Outlook Forum Acreage Estimates

Feb 23, 11:26 am | Corn, Soybeans, WASDE/USDA, Wheat

Initial 2017 US crop acreage estimates were revealed today at the USDA’s Annual Outlook Forum. Combined seeding of the 4 principle crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton were estimated at 235.5 Mil acres, down 2.2 Mil acres from 2016. Soybean and cotton areas were projected to increase 4.6 and 1.4 Mil acres, while corn and wheat acres were estimated to decline 4.0 and 4.2 Mil acres, respectively. The chart plots the historical changes in the 4 crop acreage from the Outlook Forum to the March 31st Prospective Plantings report. The Forum began incorporating cotton acres in 2005, which greatly improved the accuracy of other crops. It’s worth noting that in the last 4 years the Outlook Forum has under estimated total…

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AgResource Analysis of the December USDA Report

Dec 9, 3:51 pm | Corn, Soybeans, WASDE/USDA, Wheat

A “world awash in grain” was reflected in the USDA December WASDE report with world corn, wheat and soy stocks at or near a record large totals. The chart reflects that world wheat and corn stocks are likely to continue to grow with export competition becoming feirce for world demand by mid to late winter. The arrival of new South American crops and the thawing of the Black Sea will cause exporters to cut prices in search of demand.   The other issue is that the world is carrying a substantial buffer of supply to combat any new crop weather threat. Notice that the current crop year has a 100 MMTs of additional major grain stocks compared to the period…

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Analysis of NASS’s Sep Stocks Report

Sep 30, 4:41 pm | Corn, Soybeans, WASDE/USDA, Wheat

Corn: Final corn stocks in 16/17 was perhaps one of the least surprising pieces of USDA data in years. US corn stocks as of Sep 1 totaled 1,738 Mil Bu, just 22 Mil Bu higher than the USDA’s forecast and just a bit below the average trade guess. Final feed/residual consumption in 15/16 is tallied at 5,181 Mil Bu, vs. 5,314 Mil in 14/15. Together along with wheat and other small grains, feed use was not inspiring, but the USDA’s new crop forecast (5,650 Mil) is viewed as reasonable, and is unlikely to change until April. For once the Sep 1 US corn stocks report was not shocking!   Moving forward, balance sheet changes will be all about yield, and…

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AgResource Analysis of the September USDA Report

Sep 12, 4:53 pm | Corn, Soybeans, WASDE/USDA, Wheat

The charts show the results of the USDA’s objective day. In corn, ear counts increased slightly from August, but were still below last year, and so the increased yield was a function of the plant’s ability to add weight under very favorable crop ratings. Ear counts always decline as the season progresses and our view is that the September corn yield is likely within +/- 2 BPA of where the final yield will be. In soybeans, pod counts were just below last year – and typically pod counts tend to increase in upcoming reports. With that in mind and with favorable late season weather, the odds favor better soybean yield estimates later in the year. With good harvest weather, the…

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