Analysis: WASDE/USDA

September 1st Grain Stocks

Sep 29, 4:44 pm | Corn, Soybeans, WASDE/USDA, Wheat

The September Grain Stocks report offered a more bullish surprise, with NASS reporting a September 1 soybean inventory of 301 Mil Bu or 37 million less than the average trade estimate and 44 Mil Bu less than the September WASDE estimate. Much of the shortfall in stocks was due to a 11 Mil Bu reduction in the size of 2016/17 crop. Based on estimates for August crush and exports, AgResource estimates seed/residual use for the quarter at -52 Mil Bu. Though the carry in is still 104 Mil Bu over last year, if yield does not increase in October, the USDA’s balance sheet will further tighten. Soybeans rallied at the report release, and closed out the day 7-8 cents higher….

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Price Reaction Following The August Report

Aug 9, 4:03 pm | Corn, Soybeans, WASDE/USDA, Wheat

Like nearly all USDA Crop Report days, prices following such a key report tend to be volatile. On a percentage basis, corn cash and futures prices in the last decade have changed by an average of 2% following the August report! This  implies a rise or fall of 8-10 cents tomorrow!    Note that since 2007, there has been a bias for prices to be unchanged or higher (8 of 10 years) in the day following the report release, and in 7 out of 10 years the price corn has been higher in the week following.   It’s the August yield versus the perceived pre report yield that drives CBOT price. Surveys of analysts this year have been in a…

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Outlook Forum Acreage Estimates

Feb 23, 11:26 am | Corn, Soybeans, WASDE/USDA, Wheat

Initial 2017 US crop acreage estimates were revealed today at the USDA’s Annual Outlook Forum. Combined seeding of the 4 principle crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton were estimated at 235.5 Mil acres, down 2.2 Mil acres from 2016. Soybean and cotton areas were projected to increase 4.6 and 1.4 Mil acres, while corn and wheat acres were estimated to decline 4.0 and 4.2 Mil acres, respectively. The chart plots the historical changes in the 4 crop acreage from the Outlook Forum to the March 31st Prospective Plantings report. The Forum began incorporating cotton acres in 2005, which greatly improved the accuracy of other crops. It’s worth noting that in the last 4 years the Outlook Forum has under estimated total…

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AgResource Analysis of the December USDA Report

Dec 9, 3:51 pm | Corn, Soybeans, WASDE/USDA, Wheat

A “world awash in grain” was reflected in the USDA December WASDE report with world corn, wheat and soy stocks at or near a record large totals. The chart reflects that world wheat and corn stocks are likely to continue to grow with export competition becoming feirce for world demand by mid to late winter. The arrival of new South American crops and the thawing of the Black Sea will cause exporters to cut prices in search of demand.   The other issue is that the world is carrying a substantial buffer of supply to combat any new crop weather threat. Notice that the current crop year has a 100 MMTs of additional major grain stocks compared to the period…

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