Analysis: Wheat

Follow Through Buying Absent; Russian Interior Market Stabilizing?

Sep 22, 3:15 pm | Wheat

Wheat futures failed to capitalize on Thursday’s technical performance, but neither did the market collapse. How Dec CME performs around $4.50 early next week will be important to very short term direction. Otherwise prevailing themes are intact, with world markets rising again, albeit modestly. Funds on Tuesday were short a net 80,000 contracts, down 4,000 from the week before and compared to 127,000 on this week a year ago.   Domestic prices in Russia were mixed, and weaker again in the Volga region. But prices in S Russia, from where exports are sourced, rallied for the first time in six weeks to $155/Mt, basis spot. Russian exporter margins have widened in recent weeks, but stability in the domestic market will…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Wheat’s Chart Pattern Improves; European Cash Market Rallies

Sep 21, 3:53 pm | Wheat

US wheat futures rallied slightly for a third consecutive session, and Dec CME settled above major technical resistance at $4.52, albeit very slightly. Russian fob offers are unchanged, EU offers are noticeably higher though, and with managed funds still short an estimated 85,000 contracts in Chicago, downside risk requires an improvement in world weather.   Western Australia will benefit from moderate rainfall in the next 10 days, but elsewhere only spotty precip is forecast into early Oct – certainly not enough to reverse the trend of declining soil moisture. There’s also more attention being paid to recent and upcoming dryness in E Ukraine and Russia. Assuming the current two-week outlook verifies, Sep rainfall in the Black Sea will rest at…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Sep 1 US Wheat Stocks

Sep 20, 4:28 pm | Wheat

US wheat stocks are no doubt very large, but down from a year ago. AgResource breaks down the US Jun-Aug wheat balance sheet.

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

CME Wheat Hits 5-Week High; Russian Cash Market Up (Again):

Sep 20, 4:21 pm | Wheat

US wheat futures rallied 4-7 cents, with Dec CME posting newer multi-week highs. Limited fresh news is available, but Australia’s crop potential continues to decline and the Black Sea cash market continues to move higher (record demand is found here). The graphic below makes clear the trend in global prices since early summer, and also highlights how Australia’s share of world trade is in retreat – which will bode well for the market US over time.   Literally zero rain has fallen across much of New South Wales, Queensland and even pockets of W Australia so far in September. Spotty showers are possible in NSW next week, but needed soaking rain is not indicated over the next two weeks, and…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

US, World Wheat Futures End Steady

Sep 19, 4:28 pm | Wheat

Wheat futures worldwide did very little today, but cash markets are noticeably firmer following Egypt’s latest tender result. Egypt secured 175,000 MTs of wheat Russia, which is not surprising, but at an average fob price of $197/MT, a full $10/MT higher than its last purchase in late August. The Russian market continues to find demand, and amid limited export capacity fob prices there continue to rise.   An update on the seasonality in Russian fob prices is at left. There’s been a bit of a delay, but otherwise the market so far is aligned with recent years. Russian wheat – again, the world’s driver of price in Aug-Nov – is still offered well below comparable EU origin, and so a…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Wheat Shrugs Off Aussie Frost; Plains Moisture Boost Coming

Sep 18, 4:44 pm | Wheat

Another round of sub-freezing temps were recorded across much of New South Wales over the weekend, but US wheat futures instead failed at tech resistance, and also extracted some premium amid a rather wet pattern forecast next week across the HRW Belt. Winter wheat planting through Sunday reached 13% complete, vs. 15% a year ago. The EU model’s 6-10 day precip outlook is at left.    Egypt’s GASC is seeking optional origin supply for late Oct shipment, which again should be filled by Ukrainian/Russian origin. The Black Sea will dominate world wheat trade into late autumn. However, as that market finds demand, prices continue to rise. Russian wheat for spot arrival is offered at $188/MT, vs. $180 just weeks ago,…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

CME Wheat Adds Premium on S Hemisphere Weather Concern

Sep 15, 4:53 pm | Wheat

Larger than expected Northern Hemisphere (Russia namely) wheat crop size has been digested, and the market’s focus is shifting quickly to S Hemisphere prospects.   Australia will stay nearly completely dry into late month, and yet more frost scares is possible in NSW this weekend. The graphic below displays low temps in Australia late Sat. Freezing/near freezing lows will be widespread.     ARC maintains a neutral wheat outlook. Aussie and Argentine crops are being downgraded, but there’s just too much wheat in exportable positions currently, and until late 2017/early 2018, Russia will stay aggressive. Russian interior prices fell again this week, posting new 3-year lows. Southern Russia replacement costs are pegged at $155/MT, which is likely to keep Russian…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Wheat Ends Steady/Lower; Export Sales Unexciting

Sep 14, 2:30 pm | Wheat

  Wheat futures ended mixed in the US (additional profit taking is noted in Minneapolis), and higher in Europe, and so far seasonal trends seem to be intact. In spite of record production in Russia, the fob market there is up $6/MT from early September, and in each year since 2012 a fairly noticeable recovery has occurred in value in the Sep-Nov quarter. S Hemisphere production is also gaining importance, and weather in Argentina and Australia is far from ideal.   US export sales through the week ending Sep 7th totaled 12 Mil Bu, down 2 Mil from the previous week and slightly below the pace needed to hit the USDA’s target. Note that ARC expects the second half of…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In