Analysis: Wheat

Wheat Extracts More Weather Premium; US Crop Conditions Rise

May 14, 4:57 pm | Wheat

wheat 514Wheat futures continue their fall from seasonal highs as Central US rainfall expands into the Plains, and as Black Sea cash prices show signs of weakness. Russian origin for June delivery is offered at $212/MT, down slightly from a week ago, and it remains that Russian origin for new crop arrival is priced at a lofty $35/MT discount to comparable HRW. Fund length, which was established last week, is being liquidated as CBOT futures fall.

  US winter wheat ratings as of Sunday are pegged at 36% GD/EX, up 2% on the week. Improvement is mostly uniform across the the wheat belt. ARC’s HRW specific index rests at a 6-week high. ARC notes that abnormally warm temps will persist across much of the Plains, but a steady stream of rain events is also indicated. The HRW crop is 42% headed in KS, and so there’s time to impact yield.

  Outside of the Australian drought, world weather remains non-threatening. Near normal precip will be ongoing in Ukraine and Russia into late May. Europe is well watered. Next chart-based support rests at $5.00 July KC, but the US only competes for world market share below $4.90. We await summer weather rallies to advance sales.