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Soybean Inspections Could Be At or Near Record Low Next Week

May 26, 12:53 pm | AgResource Plus

AgResource tracks the lineup of vessels at US ports in order to gauge the intensity of nearby soybean export demand.  The table below shows the total tonnage of vessels waiting to load soybeans over the past four months.  Also shown is USDA ‘s soybean export inspections for each week.            Ship Lineup Data & Inspections Soybeans Vessels AgResource Following Inspections – Ratio Ship Reverting Estimate of Week’s AgResource Inspections Date Lineup or TBN Inspections Inspections Estimate /Lineup 5-Jan 2,780,500 11 1,600,000 1,464,830 -135,170 53% 12-Jan 2,317,333 31 1,500,000 1,409,466 -90,534 61% 19-Jan 2,301,733 28 1,650,000 1,290,777 -359,223 56% 26-Jan 1,874,700 21 1,350,000 1,630,581 280,581 87% 1-Feb 1,691,792 14 1,400,000 1,635,714 235,714 97% 9-Feb 1,631,375 22 1,000,000 1,145,336 145,336 70% 16-Feb…

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Will All of The Record Undelivered Soybean Export Sales Get Shipped?

May 25, 2:22 pm | AgResource Plus

US soybean export sales for 2016/17 rose by 17 Mil Bu.  Sales were expected to rise by 20-38 Mil Bu. 2016/17 sales were down 35% from the previous week and down 33% from the prior 4-week average. As of May 25 export commitments of US soybeans were 2,127 Mil Bu (see blue columns in the chart below).  That’s 381  Mil Bu more than a year ago and a record for this date.  On average, as of this date, commitments account for 96% of final total annual exports (see dotted red line).  This year’s commitments have accounted for 104% of USDA’s projected annual exports.  However, in four out of the last six years, commitments as of mid-May accounted for between 101%…

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US Ethanol Stocks Retreat; Exports Intact for Now

May 25, 11:08 am | AgResource Plus

US ethanol production through the week ending last Friday totaled 296.9 million gallons, down 5 Mil from the previous week, which is somewhat of a surprise but is likely due to the erosion in margins in since mid-May. Production still continue to outpace last year by some 5%, and so the USDA’s 16/17 corn consumption forecast is viewed as accurate, or perhaps still understated slightly. The lack of production amid sustained domestic blend use and better export demand triggered a sizeable drop in inventories. US ethanol stocks as of May 19th totaled 953 Mil Gal, down 31 Mil from the previous week and the lowest since mid-March. Stocks are still 7% above last year and record high for this particularly…

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China Feed Imports Stronger Than Expected But State Auctions May Lower Domestic Prices to Discourage Imports

May 24, 1:35 pm | AgResource Plus

China imported 2.26 MMT of various feeds in April (see chart below).  That is down from a year ago when imports were 3.04 MMT.  Cumulative imports for the international trade year to date (Oct-Apr) are 13.51 MMT.  That’s down 25% from a year ago.  This reflects the impact that lower China’s domestic corn prices (and punitive import levies on DDGS’s) have had on China’s feed import demand. DDGS’s imports were 51,000 MT vs 90,000 MT in March and 263,000 MT a year ago (see green columns).  Virtually all the DDGS’s are US origin.  Five months ago, China increased punitive tariffs on US DDGS’s imports that were larger than wheat was first proposed in the Fall.  The duties started effective Sep…

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China Soy Crush Margins Losses Increase As Soymeal Prices Drop to 1-Year Low

May 23, 11:08 am | AgResource Plus

The estimated crush margin for imported soybeans “spot” delivery in China was  -201 Yuan/MT yesterday (see red line in chart below). That was down 36 Yuan/MT from a week ago.  A month ago, spot crush margins fell to a 21-month low. Four months ago, the spot crush margin set a 2-year high. The crush margin for beans for “forward” delivery was -115 Yuan/MT (see blue line in chart above).  That was down 3 Yuan/MT from a week ago. Four months ago, the forward margin was the highest in three years.  Nine months ago, forward margins showed the largest loss since Feb 2014.  However, the forward margin was 3 Yuan/MT better than a year ago. Above is a chart that shows the soymeal price used to…

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Fund Position Update

May 22, 2:41 pm | AgResource Plus

The Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money funds are still holding a short positions in Chicago wheat, corn and soybeans worth 361,817 contracts, an addition of 11,000 contracts from previous week.Managed funds as of last Friday held a combined short position in corn, wheat, soybeans and soy oil worth 367,825 contracts, an increase from the 363,720 contracts of the previous week. As of last Tuesday, managed funds were short a net 36,523 contract of soybeans, against a short position of 34,335 contracts a week before. In corn, funds reduced their short positions to 203,909 contracts in Chicago, against a short 208,642 a week before. In CME wheat, managed funds increased their net short position to 121,385 contracts, against a net short position of 107,892 a week before….

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Brazil’s Soybean Export Commitments Reach 40 MMT; But Pace Lagging What is Needed to Meet USDA’s Projection

May 22, 11:27 am | AgResource Plus

On May 10, USDA pegged Brazil’s soybean crop at a record 111.6 MMT, up 600,000 MT from their previous projection.  In addition, USDA projected local marketing year (Feb-Jan) soybean exports at a record 63.6 MMT, unchanged from their previous projection.  For the week May 13-May 19, Brazil exported 2.35 MMT of soybeans.  That’s up from last week’s 2.23 MMT and above last year’s 1.95 MMT.  In addition,  Brazil’s soybean export “commitments” (shipments to date, vessels loading or waiting, and vessels to arrive) were estimated to be 40 MMT.  That is a record for this date and 2.75 MMT more than a year ago (see chart below).  It is also 63% of the USDA’s projection for annual exports. Based on the ship…

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What Impact Does Late Planting Have on Canadian Wheat Yields?

May 19, 1:59 pm | AgResource Plus

Thirty percent of Saskatchewan’s crops were planted as of May 15 (see red circle in chart below).  That’s down from last year’s 51% (see black line). While the year-to-year difference in planting progress is dramatic, the 10 year average of planting progress as of the third week of May is 42% (see black line in chart below).  This year’s progress is below average but it does falls within one standard deviation of the 10-year average. The important questions to ask is this: “What impact will late planting have on crop yields?”  The chart below shows the 10 year history of  Saskatchewan’s “all crops” planting progress as of the third week of May and the Province’s final wheat yields (the weighted…

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Soybean Export Inspections Could Rebound From Last Week’s Season Low

May 19, 11:05 am | AgResource Plus

The headline on this article is the same as last week’s. The second time is the charm.  AgResource tracks the lineup of vessels at US ports in order to gauge the intensity of nearby soybean export demand.  Last week’s lineup suggested that inspections would be higher.  Instead, inspections set a new weekly low of just 281,465 MT.  The table below shows the total tonnage of vessels waiting to load soybeans over the past four months.  Also shown is USDA ‘s soybean export inspections for each week.            Ship Lineup Data & Inspections Soybeans Vessels AgResource Following Inspections – Ship Reverting Estimate of Week’s AgResource Date Lineup or TBN Inspections Inspections Estimate 5-Jan 2,780,500 11 1,600,000 1,464,830 -135,170 12-Jan 2,317,333 31…

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We Are Lowering Russian Wheat Exports; End Stocks At 6-Year High

May 18, 10:27 am | AgResource Plus

In their May WASDE, USDA chose NOT to lower their projection for Russia’s wheat exports and it remained at 28 MMT.  Recently, a well-regarded consultancy lowered their export projection to 27.1 MMT.  We project net exports of only 26.5 MMT.  On the basis of “net” trade (exports – imports), Russia’s net wheat exports are projected to be 26 MMT (see cross-hatched column in chart below).  For now, we are adopting the USDA’s projection for next year’s net exports is 28.5 MMT (see hollow column). The chart below shows Russia’s monthly wheat exports this year (red triangles) and last year (green squares).  Values for monthly exports are read off the right axis.  The thick blue line is the 5-year average of…

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