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US Wheat Exports Up Slightly YoY. But Annual Exports Projected to Drop 55 Mil Bu.

Jul 20, 9:54 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  US wheat export commitments are better than expected but only slightly higher than a year ago.  In the July WASDE, USDA pegged 2017/18 “all wheat” exports (grain plus products) at 975 Mil Bu, (down 25 Mil Bu from the previous month’s projection).  ARC is projecting exports of 1,000 Mil Bu due to the better-than-expected pace of export sales.  USDA pegged last year’s exports at 1,055 Mil Bu. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ As of July 13, US wheat export commitments were estimated to be 350 Mil Bu.  That’s up 4 million from last year.  Our figures include an estimate of US food aid shipments that are not reported in the Export Sales Report.  In some years, food aid shipments accounted for a…

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Argentina Will Have HUGE Supplies of Corn To Export Next Year

Jul 19, 4:01 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Argentine corn shipments are running below what would be expected based on the USDA’s July WASDE projection for Oct-Sep exports. In addition, estimates of the Argentine crop are getting larger.  Today, Argentina’s Ag Minister said the crop was 49 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 47.5 MMT.  With record Argentine (and Brazilian) corn crops and huge carryover stocks, export competition from S. America will become intense in the late this Summer and well into next Fall and even early Winter. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ In the July WASDE, the USDA lowered their projection of Argentina’s (Oct 16-Sep ’17) corn exports by 0.5 MMT to 26.5 MMT.  Based on weekly Argentine export data as of July 13, July exports are pegged at…

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Weekly Ethanol Data Bearish; Crude Data Bullish

Jul 19, 2:05 pm | AgResource Plus

BOTTOM LINE: We have no disagreements with the USDA’s ethanol supply and demand estimates, but as the US energy market tightens, biofuel production margins will be well supported. US ethanol production through the week ending July 14th totaled 301.6 million bushels, up nearly 6 million on the previous week and is again (barely) a record for this particular week. Seasonally, US ethanol production tends to drift lower beyond the middle of July, but so far weekly production has taken the path of last year. Margins are not incredibly profitable, but still offer incentive to maintain the grind rate of recent weeks. However, demand fell sharply last week. US ethanol inventories as of Friday totaled 930 million gallons, up a hefty…

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If China’s Soy Crush Margins Stay Negative, Will Imports Reach 91 MMT?

Jul 18, 10:06 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:   China’s crushing margins improved slightly this past week but remain negative.   In last Wednesday’s July WASDE, USDA raised their projection for China’s soybean imports by 2 MMT to 91 MMT.  Similarly, China’s CASDE raised their projection  by 2.10 MMT to 91.55 MMT.  China’s “preliminary” estimate of June soybean imports (released last Thursday) was 7.69 MMT, lower than expected.  Vessel lineup data indicates that China’s July imports could be 8.0 MMT.  Also, vessels lineups as of Jul 14 suggest that August imports could be 6.0 MMT.  China’s monthly imports are expected to decline in coming months and total annual imports may fall short of meeting the USDA’s projection of 91 MMT. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The estimated crush margin for…

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Did USDA Lower Brazil’s Soybean Exports By Enough?

Jul 18, 7:34 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Last week, Brazil shipped 1.6 MMT of soybeans.  That’s a bit more than a year ago.  Brazil’s export “commitments” are a record 53.33 MMT and up 14% from last year.  But USDA is projecting annual exports to rise 21%.  Therefore, export commitments are lagging the pace that “on average” is needed to meet the USDA’s projection.  This suggests that Brazil’s ending stocks could be 2-4 MMT larger than the record 7.19 MMT that USDA is currently projecting.  Last year’s stocks were estimated to be 1.81 MMT.  The previous record for stocks was 6.34 MMT set in 2007/08 (stocks as of Jan 31, 2009).  In recent years,  Brazil has retained relatively small “pipeline” ending stocks.  This is in contrast…

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Russia Harvest Reports Suggest The Wheat Crop Could Be Record (Yet Again)

Jul 17, 1:00 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  USDA is projecting Russian wheat yields this year to be 2.64 MT/Ha, down about 1% from last year’s record  yields.   However, the most recent wheat harvest report shows this year’s wheat yields are 5% higher than a year ago at this time.  The USDA, and some private analysts, have raised the estimates of the crop and some suggest that the crop could set a new record.  If the final wheat yield is better than currently projected, in all likelihood, that would further increase Russia’s exports and probably ending stocks as well. With smaller crops projected for many of the other major wheat exporters, additional demand could shift to Russia this year.  The question is, …, will they…

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Brazil Corn Exports 0.52 MMT Last Week; Exports Need to Pick Up The Pace But Plenty of Time Yet To Meet/Exceed Previous Record

Jul 17, 8:08 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Brazil’s corn export “commitments” were estimated to be 6.67 MMT as on Jul 14.  That’s up 89% from a year ago and the 2nd highest figure ever (for this week). IF everything in the lineup gets shipped as scheduled, July shipments could be 4.3 MMMT (vs June shipments of 1.06 MMT).  That would be a record for shipments in July.  However, unless the July shipment pace picks up dramatically, we don’t expect that final July shipments will be larger than 2.0-2.5 MMT.  However, we do not expect that SECEX will report official exports that high (perhaps less than  2.0 MMT).  Several leading Brazilian ag consultancies have corn crop estimates that are 3-9 MMT above USDA’s estimates.  If the…

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Have US Soybean Exports Caught Their “Second Wind”?

Jul 14, 1:44 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  It appears that next week’s export inspections will be 0.145-0.415 MMT (range 270,000 tonnes).  Based on the accuracy of our estimation procedures over the past two months, our point estimate for inspections next week is 0.400 MMT (15 Mil Bu).   If this is correct, that would be down 75,000 MT (16%) from the previous week. In the July WASDE, USDA raised their projection for US old-crop soybean exports by 50 Mil Bu to a record 2,100 Mil Bu. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ AgResource tracks the lineup of vessels at US ports in order to gauge the intensity of nearby soybean export demand.  The table below shows the total tonnage of vessels waiting to load soybeans over the past six months.  Also shown…

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Ukraine Wheat Crop Estimates May Decline Further If Yield Reports Don’t Improve Enough

Jul 14, 11:41 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Ukraine is the 2nd largest “Black Sea” wheat exporter.  USDA is projecting Ukrainian wheat yields this year will be 3.64 MT/Ha, down about 12% from last year’s record  yields.   However, the latest harvest report for this year shows that wheat yields are 14% lower than a year ago at this time.  If the harvest wheat yield reports don’t increase enough, that would suggest that the final yield will be lower than currently projected.  That would further reduce Ukraine’s exports (already projected to be down 4 MMT). ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ On July 12, USDA lowered its estimate of the 2017 Ukrainian wheat crop by 1 MMT to 24 MMT (vs last year’s near-record crop of 26.8 MMT).  Last year, the…

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China’s Soybean Imports Could Be Less Than USDA’s Projection

Jul 13, 9:23 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Based on current data, China’s July soybean imports could be about 8.0 MMT (vs 7.76 MMT last year and 7.69 MMT in June).  August imports could be 6.7 MMT.  Based on the pace of imports to date (and projected imports for July and August), we are concerned that  USDA may have been too aggressive in raising their projection for China’s soybean imports by another 2 MMT.  If our estimates for exporter shipments in June and July (based on ship lineup data) are correct, China’s official imports in July and August will be disappointing.  In order to meet the USDA’s projection for 91 MMT, China’s September imports would have to be nearly 10 MMT.  That would be an all-time record…

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