AgResource Plus

Soybean Futures In Agreement With USDA Outlook But Future Direction Dependent on S. AM Wx & US Exports

Nov 17, 12:27 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  At yesterday’s close, March soybean futures were just about at the level that would be expected based last week’s November Crop & WASDE Reports.  At yesterday’s close, March soybean futures was down about 26 cents from what it was the day before the USDA reports.  A model of soybean futures price, based off the November WASDE’s stocks/use projections, suggests that futures prices have fallen about as much as would normally be expected.  This suggests that further changes in futures prices will probably be based on “new information” regarding expected supply or demand.  Potential factors causing a change in price are : (1) US exports and (2) developments in S. American weather. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ USDA mildly surprised the market a…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

US Soybean Export Inspections Likely to Be Lower Next Week for the 4th Week in a Row

Nov 17, 10:45 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line: Our point estimate for next week’s export inspections is 1.90 MMT (70 Mil Bu).   If this is correct, that would be down 187,000 MT (9%) from last week.  In addition, this week’s ship lineup is 3.07 MMT.  That’s down a fraction from last week but above last year’s 2.515 MMT.  There were 6 vessels to-be-nominated (TBN).  That is 1 more than last week but well below last year’s 22 vessels. With cargoes and destinations identified for most of the ships in the lineup that makes it easier to come up with an accurate estimate of how many ships will be loading soybeans.  This would be the 4th week in a row that weekly export inspections will have declined.  In addition, yesterday’s…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Egypt Buys All Russian Wheat For the 6th Time in a Row; But Pays A Risk Premium For Phyto-Sanitary Snafus

Nov 16, 11:53 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line: Egypt’s GASC bought 240,000 MT today.  For the sixth time in a row, Russia captured all the business. On a FOB basis, the average price paid was $194.65/MT, down $1.45 from the last tender (Nov 08).  The CIF price was $209.24/MT vs the last tender’s price of $210.98/MT.   With an Egyptian court ordering the reinstatement of a “zero tolerance” for ergot, it appears that Egypt may have paid several dollars per MT as a “risk premium”.  USDA is projecting that Egypt’s total wheat and flour imports will be a record 12 MMT, up over 750,000 MT from last year.   ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ After purchasing 120,000 MT of wheat from Russia in a tender eight days ago, today Egypt’s GASC bought…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Dec Corn Futures About Where Model Projects It Would Be.

Nov 16, 10:35 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  December corn futures set new life-of-contract lows following last week’s November Crop & WASDE Reports.  This morning, December corn futures was down about 10 cents from what it was the day before the reports.  A model of corn futures price, based off the November WASDE’s stocks/use projections, suggests that futures prices have fallen about as much as would normally be expected.  This suggests that further changes in futures prices will probably be based on “new information” regarding expected supply or demand.  Potential factors causing a change in price are : (1) US exports and (2) developments in S. American weather. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ USDA surprised the market a week ago by pegging corn yields at a record.  As a consequence,…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Ethanol Production On Track to Make 2017/18 Corn Crush Record Large

Nov 15, 2:08 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line: Even though this week’s production was down slightly from last week (some analysts had expected an increase of 1-3%), AgResource expects the pace of US ethanol production to stay record large into 2018. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ US ethanol plants through the week ending last Friday totaled 310 million gallons, down 1 million on the week. Stocks remain elevated, mostly due to record production. US ethanol inventories last week totaled 903 million gallons, up 7 million on the previous week and up 16% from last year. US motor gasoline inventories are low, and of last Friday, totaled just 210.4 million barrels, up 1 million from last week but  down 5% from last year. US crude inventories were up slightly at 459…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Ukraine’s and Russia’s Corn Crops Combined Could Be .75-1.0 MMT Smaller Than USDA’s Projection.

Nov 15, 10:58 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  The most recent harvest reports show that this year’s Ukrainian corn yields are 17.4% less than a year ago when harvest was at a similar point.  Likewise, Russia’s corn yields are 11.8% less than a year ago.  However, USDA is projecting that Ukraine’s yield will be down just 15.6% while Russia’s yield is projected to fall by 9.3%.  If Ukrainian and Russian final corn yields are down as much as harvest yield reports currently indicate, USDA’s projection for the combined corn crops could be reduced by nearly 0.75-1.0 MMT.  However, about 27% of the crops remains to be harvested and our projections for final yield can and will change. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ As of Nov 13 Ukraine had harvested 17.36 MMT…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

China Spot Crush Margin At Break-Even; Forward Margins Up But Still Below Break-Even

Nov 14, 9:30 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  China’s “spot” margin rose 23 Yuan in the past week.  It is now at break-even.  The “forward” margin rose 59 Yuan to -45 Yuan/MT.  However, the forward margin is 334 Yuan ($1.37/Bu) below what it was a year ago.  China’s preliminary estimate of Oct imports was 5.86 MMT.  We expect Nov imports to be 8.75-9.75 MMT . USDA raised their projection of China’s imports by 2 MMT to 97 MMT vs last year’s 93.5 MMT. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The estimated crush margin for imported soybeans “spot” delivery in China today was -0- Yuan/MT (see red line in chart below). That is up 23 Yuan from a week ago.  Ten months ago, the spot crush margin set a 2-year high. The crush margin for beans…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Brazil’s Soybean Exports Could Be 0.50-0.75 MMT Above USDA’s Projection of Record 65.635 MMT

Nov 14, 8:44 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Last week, Brazil shipped 475,000 MT of soybeans. In comparison, the US exported 2.09 MMT.  Brazil’s export commitments grew by 936,000 MT and are now a record 65.33 MMT, up 26.4% from last year.  USDA is projecting annual exports to rise 26.0%.  Export commitments are at a pace that “on average” could exceed the USDA’s projection by .50-.75 MMT.  Commitments have now accounted for 99.5% of USDA’s projection of 65.635 MMT and there’s still 11 weeks left in the marketing year. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ On Nov 09, USDA left their projection of Brazil’s soybean local marketing year (Feb-Jan) exports unchanged at a record 65.635 MMT.  However, they raised their projection for the new-crop (Feb ’18-Jan ’19) by 1 MMT to 65 MMT. …

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Surge in Commitments Puts Brazil Corn Exports Back on Track to Meet USDA’s Projection

Nov 13, 9:34 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Brazil exported 1.111 MMT of corn last week.  That’s up from the previous week  and it is five times what was exported in the same period last year.  Brazil’s corn export “commitments” were estimated to be 25.73 MMT as of Nov 10.  That’s up 137% from a year ago but is only the 2nd largest (for this week). Ship lineups indicate that 4.59 MMT may be shipped in November vs. last year’s shipments of 1.16 MMT and SECEX’s official November exports of 0.967 MMT.  Brazil’s cumulative corn commitments continue to grow and last week’s surge has put exports back on a pace that should meet the USDA’s projection for a record 36 MMT. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ On Nov 09, USDA…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

US Soybean Ship Lineup “Peaked” Early This Year; Inspections Next Week Could Be 2.25 MMT

Nov 10, 12:06 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line: Our point estimate for next week’s export inspections is 2.25 MMT (83 Mil Bu).   If this is correct, that would be down 241,000 MT (10%) from last week.  In addition, this week’s ship lineup is 3.08 MMT.  That’s down 12% from last week but above last year’s 2.515 MMT.  There were 5 vessels to-be-nominated (TBN).  That is 1 more than last week but well below last year’s 22 vessels. With cargoes and destinations identified for most of the ships in the lineup that makes it easier to come up with an accurate estimate of how many ships will be loading soybeans.  Yesterday, USDA left their projection for soybean exports unchanged at a record 2,250 Mil Bu, up from last year’s record…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In