AgResource Plus

Record Russian Wheat Crop Matched By Record Export Pace

Sep 22, 8:47 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  USDA is projecting Russian wheat yields this year to be 3.029 MT/HA (44.9 Bu/Ac).  That’s a record and up 12.3% from last year’s record  yields.   However, the most recent wheat harvest report shows this year’s yields are 14.8% higher than last year.  This week, the Russian consultancy IKAR lowered their crop estimate slightly to 83 MMT (from the previous 83.255 MMT; six weeks ago it was 74-77 MMT).   Making year-to-year comparisons in yields is getting less complicated as only 13% of total wheat area remains to be harvested. If the final yield is better than currently projected, in all likelihood, that would further increase Russia’s ending stocks.  In the first quarter of the year, Russian wheat exports are…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

EU Wheat Exports Still Lagging Behind Pace Needed to Meet USDA’s Projection

Sep 21, 12:29 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  The EU is the world’s second largest wheat exporter.  Last week, the USDA lowered their projection for EU wheat exports by 1 MMT to 28.5 MMT.  Last year’s exports are estimated to have been 27.3 MMT.  The EU exported a record 35.5 MMT in 2014/15.  The Former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to be the largest exporter with 57.5 MMT (up 1.5 MMT from their previous projection).  The US comes in 3rd place with exports projected to be 26 MMT.  As of Sep 21, the EU’s cumulative exports are estimated to be 4.055 MMT.  That is well below last year’s 6.92 MMT.  We believe that, for now, the USDA’s export projection may be too high.  But, we are…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

US Soybean Sales To China Down 61 Mil Bu YoY; But Daily Sales & Sales to “Unknown” Could Boost China’s Tally

Sep 21, 10:13 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  US soybean export commitments are 20% below last year but the USDA projects final annual exports will be a record and up 5% from last year.  Last year, China accounted for 62% of all US soybean exports.  US soybean export commitments to China  are 16% below last year.  However, a large portion of export sales to unknown destinations are ultimately switched to China.  In addition, some large daily sales made in the past week will likely boost sales to China in upcoming weekly Export Sales Reports.  Ultimately, the final quantity of US exports will most likely be determined by the size of the S. American crops.  That won’t be known with some certainty for maybe another 4-5 months….

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

China Crush Margins Below Breakeven; Yet China Purchases Continue At Record Pace

Sep 20, 12:12 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:   China crush margins have swung above and below breakeven for the past month.  This week, the “spot” margin is below breakeven and the “forward” margin still shows a loss.  The “spot” crush margin fell 54 Yuan and is now below break-even at -19 Yuan/MT.  The “forward” margin dropped 47 Yuan to -71  Yuan/MT.  Exporter shipments to China in August indicate that China’s Sep imports could be 8-9 MMT and that total annual imports could be 92.5-93.5 MMT vs the USDA’s projection of 92 MMT (up 1 MMT from its previous projection).  USDA also raised their estimate of China’s 2017/18 soybean imports by 1 MMT to 95 MMT.  China’s own S&D (CASDE issued yesterday) pegged next year’s imports…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Brazil Could Export Near-Record 6.21 MMT of Corn in Sep

Sep 20, 10:19 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Brazil’s corn export “commitments” were estimated to be 18.35 MMT as of Sep 15.  That’s up 105% from a year ago and is a record (for this week). Ship lineups indicate that 6.21 MMT could be shipped in September vs last year’s shipments of 2.33 MMT and Brazil’s SECEX “official” September 2016 shipments of just 2.92 MMT. The record for any month’s exports is 6.27 MMT (set in December 2015).  In 2015/16, when Brazil exported a record 34.5 MMT (in the Mar-Feb local marketing year), SECEX figures lagged well behind shipments as reported by cargo data services. Cumulative corn commitments are growing rapidly and are nearly at the “average” pace needed to meet the USDA’s export projection of 36…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Egypt Pays More For Wheat; Is Uncertainty About Phytosanitary Standards Putting a “Risk Premium” Back In Offers?

Sep 19, 12:12 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line: Egypt’s GASC bought 175,000 MT today.  Not surprisingly, Russian wheat captured all the business. On a FOB basis, the average price paid was $196.66/MT, up $9.66/MT from the last tender (Aug 29).  USDA is projecting that Egypt’s total wheat and flour imports will be a record 12 MMT, up over 750,000 MT from last year.  With Egypt rejecting or “holding” cargoes based on yet another phytosanitary standard, it’s possible that today’s prices reflect a “risk premium” unique to Egypt rather than overall global supply-demand factors.  ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ After purchasing 295,000 MT of wheat from Russia and Ukraine in a tender three weeks ago, today Egypt’s GASC bought 175,000 MT of Russian wheat.  The average FOB price paid in today’s tender…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Brazil Could Export 3.38 MMT of Soybeans in Sep; USDA Bumps Up Export Projection to 65 MMT

Sep 19, 9:18 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Last week, Brazil shipped 515,000 MT of soybeans.  That’s below the previous week’s 688,000 MT but more than double a year ago.  Brazil’s export “commitments” are a record 61.143 MMT, up 21.4% from last year.  USDA is projecting annual exports to rise 24.8%.  Export commitments are now a bit below the pace that “on average” is needed to meet the USDA’s projection. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ On Sep 12, USDA raised their projection of Brazil’s soybean local marketing year (Feb-Jan) exports by 1.8 MMT to a record 65.0 MMT.  For the week Sep 09- Sep 15, Brazil exported 515,000 MT of soybeans.  That’s below the previous week’s 688,000 MT  but well above last year’s 314,000 MT.   Brazil’s soybean export “commitments” (shipments…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Despite Weak Crush Margins, China’s Soybean Import Estimates Rising

Sep 13, 9:36 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:   China crush margins have swung above and below break-even for the past month.  This week, the “spot” margin is above breakeven but the “forward” margin still shows a loss.  The “spot” crush margin rose 27 Yuan and is now above break-even at +35 Yuan/MT.  The “forward” margin rose 35 Yuan but is -24  Yuan/MT (but well above the 3-year low it set a month ago).  Ship lineups indicate that China’s Sep imports could be 8 MMT and that total annual imports could be 92.5-93.5 MMT vs the USDA’s projection of 92 MMT (up 1 MMT from its previous projection).  USDA also raised their estimate of China’s 2017/18 soybean imports by 1 MMT to 95 MMT.  China’s own…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Brazil Could Export 5.87 MMT of Corn in September

Sep 12, 10:31 am | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Brazil’s corn export “commitments” were estimated to be 16.75 MMT as of Sep 08.  That’s up 98% from a year ago and is a record (for this week). Ship lineups indicate that 5.87 MMT could be shipped in September vs last year’s shipments of 2.33 MMT and Brazil’s SECEX “official” September 2016 shipments of just 2.92 MMT.  In 2015/16, when Brazil exported a record 34.5 MMT (in the Mar-Feb local marketing year), SECEX figures lagged well behind shipments as reported by cargo data services. Cumulative corn commitments are growing rapidly and are nearly at the “average” pace needed to meet the USDA’s export projection of 35 MMT. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ For the week Sep 02-Sep 08, Brazil exported 1.29 MMT…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

2016/17 China Soybean Imports Could Be 1.5-2.5 MMT Above USDA’s Projection

Sep 11, 12:15 pm | AgResource Plus

Bottom Line:  Based on current data, China’s September soybean imports could be about 8.0 MMT (vs 8.45 MMT in August and 6.34 MMT last year).   If our estimate for exporter shipments in August (based on ship lineup data) is correct, China’s official imports in September will be enough to push 2016/17 final Oct-Sep imports to 92.5-93.5 MMT vs USDA’s projection of 91 MMT.  If USDA raises its estimate for 2016/17 imports, they will probably raise their 94 MMT projection for 2017/18 by an equal amount (possibly to 96-97 MMT). +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Last Friday, China’s released its preliminary estimate of August soybean imports which was higher than expected. August imports were 8.45 MMT, down 1.63 MMT from July, but up 779,000 MT…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In