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US Soybean Export Inspections Could Rise Next Week

Apr 21, 3:18 pm | AgResource Plus

AgResource tracks the lineup of vessels at US ports in order to gauge the intensity of nearby soybean export demand.  The table below shows the total tonnage of vessels waiting to load soybeans over the past four months.  Also shown is USDA ‘s soybean export inspections for each week.            Ship Lineup Data & Inspections Soybeans Vessels AgResource Following Inspections – Ratio Ship Reverting Estimate of Week’s AgResource Inspections Date Lineup or TBN Inspections Inspections Estimate /Lineup 5-Jan 2,780,500 11 1,600,000 1,464,830 -135,170 53% 12-Jan 2,317,333 31 1,500,000 1,409,466 -90,534 61% 19-Jan 2,301,733 28 1,650,000 1,290,777 -359,223 56% 26-Jan 1,874,700 21 1,350,000 1,630,581 280,581 87% 1-Feb 1,691,792 14 1,400,000 1,635,714 235,714 97% 9-Feb 1,631,375 22 1,000,000 1,145,336 145,336 70% 16-Feb…

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Canada Final Wheat Seedings Mostly Smaller Than April Estimates; Canola Mostly Larger

Apr 21, 8:43 am | AgResource Plus

StatsCan’s April estimate of the country’s all wheat seedings was 23.182 Mil Ac.  On average, the trade expected seedings of 22.412 Mil Ac (range 21.43-22.80 Mil).    Last year’s crop seedings was 23.212 Mil Ac.  There is an overwhelming tendency for final all wheat seedings to be smaller than the April estimate.  The chart below shows history going back to 2003.  The odds of final seedings being smaller than the April estimate is 93%.  In years when final seedings was smaller, the average decrease was 4.7% (or about 1.1 Mil Ac in 2017). StatsCan’s April estimate of the country’s canola seedings was 22.387 Mil Ac.  On average, the trade expected seedings of 21.591 Mil Ac (range 20.80-22.50 Mil).    Last…

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Weekly Ethanol Production Higher Than Expected; Export Demand Down

Apr 20, 3:29 pm | AgResource Plus

US ethanol production through the week ending April 14th totaled 292 million gallons, up 2 mil on the previous week and which is somewhat counter seasonal. Production margins through the period did improve, as did blend margins, and so the moderate recovery is logical. However, it’s still spring maintenance season, and weekly production is not expected to return to the levels of Dec-Mar until mid-summer. But this week, the boost in production spilled directly into inventories. US ethanol stocks as of last Friday totaled 967 Mil Gal, up 5.5 Mil on the previous week, up 3% from a year ago and are record large for mid-April. The ethanol market, like grain, needs to find elevated demand. And key in the…

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New-Crop US Wheat Export Sales Lowest in 5 Years. Annual Exports Projected to Drop 100 Mil Bu.

Apr 20, 10:53 am | AgResource Plus

As of April 13, export sales of new-crop US wheat was estimated to be 59 Mil Bu.  That’s down from last year’s 72 Million and the lowest in five years.  Our figures include an estimate of US food aid shipments that are not reported in the Export Sales Report.  In some years, food aid shipments accounted for a significant portion of total wheat shipments (e.g. in 1999/2000, food aid shipments were 142 Mil Bu accounting for 13% of all US wheat grain exports that year). The combined export sales of US HRW and HRS wheats was 35 Mil Bu, down from last year’s 46 Mil Bu. However export sales of US SRW was the smallest in 11 years. Bottom Line: …

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Brazil Soybean Export Commitments Lagging Just a Bit Behind Pace Needed to Meet USDA’s Projection.

Apr 18, 11:47 am | AgResource Plus

On Apr 11, USDA pegged Brazil’s soybean crop at a record 111 MMT, up 3 MMT from their previous projection.  In addition, USDA projected local marketing year (Feb-Jan) soybean exports at a record 63.6 MMT, up 1.4 MMT from their previous projection.  For the period Apr 08-17, Brazil exported 3.55 MMT of soybeans.  That’s down slightly from last year’s 3.69 MMT.  However, Brazil’s soybean export “commitments” (shipments to date, vessels loading or waiting, and vessels to arrive) were estimated to be 29.79 MMT.  That is 1.29 MMT more than a year ago (see chart below).  It is also a record for this date. Based on the ship lineup as of Apr 17, Brazil’s April soybean shipments are estimated to be…

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Fund Position Update

Apr 17, 5:16 pm | AgResource Plus

The Commitment of Traders report reflected larger than expected short positions in corn, soy and wheat. Managed funds as of last Friday held a combined short position in corn, wheat, soybeans and soy oil worth 373,315 contracts. This compares to a net short of 327,195 contracts a week ago and a net short of just 46,211 contracts on this week in 2016. As of last Tuesday, managed funds were short a net 29,733 contract of soybeans, against a long position of 722 a week before and a long 37,916 contracts two weeks ago. In corn, funds stepped on the accelerator and are now short 158,417 contracts in Chicago, against 150,287 a week before. In CME wheat, managed funds’ net short position was 134,459 contracts, against a net short…

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China Crush Margins Stable Despite Soyoil Falling to 17-Month Low

Apr 17, 10:14 am | AgResource Plus

The estimated crush margin for imported beans “spot” delivery in China was  -170 Yuan/MT today (see red line in chart below).  This is up 20 Yuan/MT from a week ago.  Three weeks ago, spot crush margins fell to a 21-month low. Four months ago, the spot crush margin set a 2-year high. The crush margin for beans for “forward” delivery is -59 Yuan/MT (see blue line in chart above).  This is below break-even and down 10 Yuan/MT from a week ago. Four months ago, the forward margin was the highest in three years.  Nine months ago, forward margins showed the largest loss since Feb 2014.  However, the forward margin is 139 Yuan/MT better than a year ago. Above is a chart that shows the…

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Ethanol Production Down Sharply; Demand Intact

Apr 13, 11:18 am | AgResource Plus

US ethanol production through the week ending April 7th totaled 289.9 Mil Gallons, down roughly Mil from the previous week and which is evident that the seasonal maintenance period is fully underway. Spring plant maintenance will continue for another 3-4 weeks before production recovers ahead of summer, and the USDA was right in raising its projected corn demand draw 50 Mil Bushels to a record large 5,450 Mil. Of course record ethanol production, on the margin, will continue to weigh on feed use, as more and more DDGs are produced. Weekly US ethanol inventories fell 34 Mil Gal to 962 Mil, which compares to 933 Mil Gal on this week a year ago. Seasonally, the market should continue to tighten…

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Brazil CONAB’s April Corn Estimate Too Low 80% of The Time

Apr 13, 10:16 am | AgResource Plus

On Tuesday, CONAB pegged the Brazilian corn crop at 91.468 MMT.  That’s a record and up 2.5 (2.8%) from last month’s estimate.  Brazil’s IBGE’s corn estimate, also released Tuesday, was 92.37 MMT (up 3.87 MMT from their March estimate).  There is a strong tendency for CONAB to underestimate Brazil’s corn crop in its April crop report.  In 8-out-of-the-last-10 years, CONAB’s April estimate has been too low (see chart below).  In those years when CONAB’s April estimate was too low, the median error was 4.9% (range 3.4%-11.6%).  If CONAB’s April estimate is too low by 4.9%, that would add an additional 4.5 MMT to production pushing the crop to as high as 95.95 MMT. Bottom Line:  In recent years (other than last…

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China’s Soybean Imports Could Be Above USDA’s Projection

Apr 13, 8:59 am | AgResource Plus

China’s preliminary estimate of March soybean imports was 6.33 MMT.  This is up from February’s 5.54 MMT, up from last year’s 6.097 MMT, and a record for the month. Soybean shipments to China made in March by the principal exporters was 8.83 MMT.  These March shipments will make up the bulk of what China will report as imports in April. In addition, based on the lineup of vessels expected to ship in April, we estimate that China’s May imports will be 9.34 MMT.  The chart below depicts our estimates for exporters’ shipments in March and April (which we assume will be reported by China as “official” imports for April and May). The chart below shows China’s monthly soybean imports this…

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