Summary: Last week (Mar 17) Brazil exported 265,000 MT of corn, up 193,000 MT from the previous week. Argentine exports were 466,000 MT. Shipments from Ukraine were 1.10 MMT. US corn exports were 1.19 MMT. Brazil’s total corn export “commitments”, for the new-crop local marketing year, are 991,000 MT vs 389,00 MT last year. Brazil’s corn “commitments” rose 89,000 MT this past week. Ship lineup data indicates that 1.00 MMT could be shipped in March. Last year’s March shipments were 107,000 MT but official SESEX exports were only 14,000 MT. USDA’s March WASDE projection of Brazil’s “new-crop” local marketing year (Mar-Feb) was a record 50.0 MMT, unchanged from the previous month. For now, ARC expects final new-crop exports to be 50 MMT.
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As of Mar 17, Brazil’s corn marketing year (Mar-Feb) export “commitments” are estimated to be 991,000 MT. That is up 193,000 MT from the previous week, and it is well above last year when there were 389,000 commitments at this time (see chart below). USDA projects exports will be up 3.1%.
This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 672,000 MT vs 496,000 MT a year ago (see chart below).
The chart below shows that corn export commitments a more than a standard deviation above the USDA’s projection but there’s 49 weeks left in Brazil’s local marketing year. Commitments have accounted for 2.0% of projected exports vs last year’s 0.8% and the 5-year average ratio of 1.0% (range 0.4%-1.9%). Using the 5-year average ratio, commitments today imply annual exports of 98 MMT.
The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the international marketing year (Oct-Sep). The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data. The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports. The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports. There is 991,000 MT scheduled to be shipped in March.
