Summary: Last week (Mar 24) Brazil exported 191,000 MT of corn, down 74,000 MT from the previous week. Argentine exports were 407,000 MT. Shipments from Ukraine were 700,000 MT. US corn exports were 666,000 MT. Brazil’s total corn export “commitments”, for the new-crop local marketing year, are 1.02 MMT vs 687,00 MT last year. Brazil’s corn “commitments” rose 33,000 MT this past week. Ship lineup data indicates that 842,000 MT could be shipped in March. Last year’s March shipments were 107,000 MT but official SESEX exports were only 14,000 MT. USDA’s March WASDE projection of Brazil’s “new-crop” local marketing year (Mar-Feb) was a record 50.0 MMT, unchanged from the previous month. For now, ARC expects final new-crop exports to be 50 MMT.
As of Mar 24, Brazil’s corn marketing year (Mar-Feb) export “commitments” are estimated to be 1.024 MMT. That is up 33,000 MT from the previous week, and it is well above last year when there were 687,000 commitments at this time (see chart below). USDA projects exports will be up 3.1%.
This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 338,000 MT vs 687,000 MT a year ago (see chart below).
The chart below shows that corn export commitments a more than a standard deviation above the USDA’s projection but there’s 48 weeks left in Brazil’s local marketing year. Commitments have accounted for 2.0% of projected exports vs last year’s 0.8% and the 5-year average ratio of 1.1% (range 0.7%-1.9%). Using the 5-year average ratio, commitments today imply annual exports of 89 MMT.
The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the international marketing year (Oct-Sep). The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data. The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports. The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports. There is 842,000 MT scheduled to be shipped in March.