Summary: Last week (Mar 03) Brazil exported 280,000 MT of corn, up 10,000 MT from the previous week. Argentine exports were 511,000 MT. Shipments from Ukraine were 401,000 MT. US corn exports are estimated to be 900,000 MT. Brazil’s total corn export “commitments”, for the new-crop local marketing year, are 740,000 MT vs 0.00 MT last year. Brazil’s corn “commitments” rose 106,000 MT this past week. Ship lineup data indicates that 900,000 MT could be shipped in March. Last year’s March shipments were 107,000 MT but official SESEX exports were only 14,000 MT. USDA’s February WASDE projection of Brazil’s “new-crop” local marketing year (Mar-Feb) was a record 50.0 MMT, up 3.0 MMT from the previous month. For now, ARC expects final new-crop exports to be 50 MMT.
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As of Mar 03, Brazil’s corn marketing year (Mar-Feb) export “commitments” are estimated to be 740,000 MT. That is up 106,000 MT from the previous week, but it is well above last year when there were NO commitments at this time (see chart below). USDA projects exports will be up 4.2%.
This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 741,000 MT vs “0” MT a year ago (see chart below).
The chart below shows that corn export commitments a standard deviation above the USDA’s projection but there’s 51 weeks left in Brazil’s local marketing year. Commitments have accounted for 1.5% of projected exports vs last year’s 0.0% and the 5-year average ratio of 0.7% (range 0.0%-1.8%). Using the 5-year average ratio, commitments today imply annual exports of 102 MMT.
The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the international marketing year (Oct-Sep). The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data. The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports. The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports. There is 899,000 MT scheduled to be shipped in March.
